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I don't know how to parse this comment. Why would the US give up on Taiwan "before it gets serious". If the US is involved in a shooting conflict in the Taiwane

by XorNot 3y ago

I don't know how to parse this comment. Why would the US give up on Taiwan "before it gets serious". If the US is involved in a shooting conflict in the Taiwanese strait, they either win or lose it conventionally but if it happens at all then nukes aren't getting involved unless mainland territorial invasions go on the table - and they're not going to. The reality is the US would very much like to avoid having to negotiate that situation: far easier to arm Taiwan to the teeth with AA and anti-shipping missiles, and let them take care of it. EDIT: It's also worth noting nukes aren't the only deterrent forces. It's one thing to "know" that the US Navy isn't going to get involved...it's quite another to conduct an invasion of an ally while well inside the missile engagement range of the US Navy on the assumption that's actually true.

pas 3y ago
Are those missiles getting to Taiwan any time soon though? It seems current politics on the island is still uber polite oh we are China, no need for drastic measures, etc. or is that changing fast?
- 14u2c 3y ago
  They been sending arn for 50 years now.
Log_out_ 3y ago
The US is currently loosing to Russia in Europe, it's all talk no walk, similar to west - europe.
- actionfromafar 3y ago
  The US is "loosing" because it barely dipped a toe in the conflict. Motivate the US to go all in and it's a different story altogether. But I agree on the reluctance of Western Europe and the US to give support, the Ukraine conflict could have been over by now with proper support.
  - inglor_cz 3y ago
    Not the OP, but political loss is still a loss. If the Republicans abandon Ukraine, US credibility will take a huge hit, probably worse than when the US abandoned South Vietnam.
  - denton-scratch 3y ago
    Much of Europe is giving support; but decades of US military support has resulted in our stockpiles being rather depleted, and supplies to Ukraine have so far been from stockpiles, not new manufacture. Russia presents a threat to Europe that it doesn't present to the USA. Europe needs to tool-up. I say this as a former pacifist.
- hef19898 3y ago
  Loosing? How exactly so? NATO is expanding, Russia isn't gaining anything currently in Ukraine, in fact Russia is becoming dependent on China, India and North Korea. And so far, NATO has to actively participate in the fighting in Ukraine. Since this would be a major escalation, one that is extremely hard to sell to NATO country citizens, that will obviously not happen anytime soon.
- bbsz 3y ago
  How? How US can be loosing a war it doesn't fight in? It's the same as saying that North Korea is loosing against Ukraine because they deliver ammunition to Russia. A fallacy. And even if you'd want to use that metric. How exactly loosing zero US personnel at the cost of getting a real-life assessment of NATO combined mobile warfare against the Soviet artillery superiority doctrine is a lose situation for US?
  - KptMarchewa 3y ago
    Which assessment of NATO mobile warfare we can talk about when there's literally no NATO's biggest asset - aviation and no biggest enabler or mobile warfare - battlefield isolation?
    - bbsz 3y ago
      Touche. But I'd say that this makes it even the more valuable lesson. Battlefield characteristics is still very close and Russians (now) are acting like they would act against the NATO-trained forces. And, of course, it's liberal on my part to put Ukrainian Army in the basket of NATO forces as that is only true for maybe a year (after the first rotations ended). That being said. I think that there's unprecedented amount of military intel US is getting out of this conflict for pennies on the dollar.
      - KptMarchewa 3y ago
        >Battlefield characteristics is still very close and Russians (now) are acting like they would act against the NATO-trained forces. I don't think they are even close to that - their meat assaults Avdiivka type is not something that would ever happen in conflict with NATO involvement, because the frontline would never stabilize in a way that would enable russia to employ those tactics. NATO-trained is very wide statement, some African armies and Afghanistan ones were NATO trained and it went nowhere. >That being said. I think that there's unprecedented amount of military intel US is getting out of this conflict for pennies on the dollar. Sure. There's no EW piece that russia had in 2022 and wasn't captured intact in the first few months :)
- KptMarchewa 3y ago
  With few hundred thousand russian casualties, and 0 US armed forces ones, Russia triumphally wins over US empire.
hugryhoop 3y ago
Taiwan could build it's own nukes in a few months if it wanted. Chinese preparations for an invasion would take more than that.
- samus 3y ago
  Even the attempt to make them again might provoke China to react. Eventually with an invasion, after slagging the facilities with cruise missiles or air bombardment. They will be committed to overwhelm any air defense to accomplish that. What to do with them anyways? Taiwan would need plentiful supply of them and a reliable delivery mechanism. Japan surrendered because the US had total air superiority and bluffed about their supply of nukes. North Korea has long-range missiles and literally tens of thousands of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul.
  - hugryhoop 3y ago
    If Taiwan sees China assembling an invasion force, why not build a nuke then, China already signaled that it's going to attack anyway. A nuke is easy to hide, we are not talking about global second strike capability here, just delivering a couple of them to close coastal cities, even by smuggling them in some civilian transport. Can China be 100% sure that not one slipped through? Taiwan could do a proof detonation on non-city Chinese soil if things get tense.
    - maxglute 3y ago
      It's open secret ROCA is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, and Chinese missiles can hit anywhere in TW in 7 minutes. If anything, if PRC wants to unilaterally attack TW, you would expect PRC to manufacture casus belli that TW is pursuing nuclear program to preemptively strike TW before they even start assembling an invasion force. Most of the world would be left shrugging because nuclear proliferation of non recognized UN state is going to be jus ad bellum reason for PRC to start whacking TW indiscriminantly. The entire PRC invasion can be seen months away is stupid for this reason, they're not going to telegraph an amphib build up before destroying TWs military first. And as seen in exercises in response to Pelosi, they can pull that operation together in days, the hardware movement itself indistinguishable from exercise mobilization.

by XorNot 3y ago

pas 3y ago

Are those missiles getting to Taiwan any time soon though? It seems current politics on the island is still uber polite oh we are China, no need for drastic measures, etc. or is that changing fast?

14u2c 3y ago
They been sending arn for 50 years now.

Log_out_ 3y ago

The US is currently loosing to Russia in Europe, it's all talk no walk, similar to west - europe.

actionfromafar 3y ago
The US is "loosing" because it barely dipped a toe in the conflict. Motivate the US to go all in and it's a different story altogether. But I agree on the reluctance of Western Europe and the US to give support, the Ukraine conflict could have been over by now with proper support.
- inglor_cz 3y ago
  Not the OP, but political loss is still a loss. If the Republicans abandon Ukraine, US credibility will take a huge hit, probably worse than when the US abandoned South Vietnam.
- denton-scratch 3y ago
  Much of Europe is giving support; but decades of US military support has resulted in our stockpiles being rather depleted, and supplies to Ukraine have so far been from stockpiles, not new manufacture. Russia presents a threat to Europe that it doesn't present to the USA. Europe needs to tool-up. I say this as a former pacifist.
hef19898 3y ago
Loosing? How exactly so? NATO is expanding, Russia isn't gaining anything currently in Ukraine, in fact Russia is becoming dependent on China, India and North Korea. And so far, NATO has to actively participate in the fighting in Ukraine. Since this would be a major escalation, one that is extremely hard to sell to NATO country citizens, that will obviously not happen anytime soon.
bbsz 3y ago
How? How US can be loosing a war it doesn't fight in? It's the same as saying that North Korea is loosing against Ukraine because they deliver ammunition to Russia. A fallacy. And even if you'd want to use that metric. How exactly loosing zero US personnel at the cost of getting a real-life assessment of NATO combined mobile warfare against the Soviet artillery superiority doctrine is a lose situation for US?
- KptMarchewa 3y ago
  Which assessment of NATO mobile warfare we can talk about when there's literally no NATO's biggest asset - aviation and no biggest enabler or mobile warfare - battlefield isolation?
  - bbsz 3y ago
    Touche. But I'd say that this makes it even the more valuable lesson. Battlefield characteristics is still very close and Russians (now) are acting like they would act against the NATO-trained forces. And, of course, it's liberal on my part to put Ukrainian Army in the basket of NATO forces as that is only true for maybe a year (after the first rotations ended). That being said. I think that there's unprecedented amount of military intel US is getting out of this conflict for pennies on the dollar.
    - KptMarchewa 3y ago
      >Battlefield characteristics is still very close and Russians (now) are acting like they would act against the NATO-trained forces. I don't think they are even close to that - their meat assaults Avdiivka type is not something that would ever happen in conflict with NATO involvement, because the frontline would never stabilize in a way that would enable russia to employ those tactics. NATO-trained is very wide statement, some African armies and Afghanistan ones were NATO trained and it went nowhere. >That being said. I think that there's unprecedented amount of military intel US is getting out of this conflict for pennies on the dollar. Sure. There's no EW piece that russia had in 2022 and wasn't captured intact in the first few months :)
KptMarchewa 3y ago
With few hundred thousand russian casualties, and 0 US armed forces ones, Russia triumphally wins over US empire.

hugryhoop 3y ago

Taiwan could build it's own nukes in a few months if it wanted. Chinese preparations for an invasion would take more than that.

samus 3y ago
Even the attempt to make them again might provoke China to react. Eventually with an invasion, after slagging the facilities with cruise missiles or air bombardment. They will be committed to overwhelm any air defense to accomplish that. What to do with them anyways? Taiwan would need plentiful supply of them and a reliable delivery mechanism. Japan surrendered because the US had total air superiority and bluffed about their supply of nukes. North Korea has long-range missiles and literally tens of thousands of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul.
- hugryhoop 3y ago
  If Taiwan sees China assembling an invasion force, why not build a nuke then, China already signaled that it's going to attack anyway. A nuke is easy to hide, we are not talking about global second strike capability here, just delivering a couple of them to close coastal cities, even by smuggling them in some civilian transport. Can China be 100% sure that not one slipped through? Taiwan could do a proof detonation on non-city Chinese soil if things get tense.
  - maxglute 3y ago
    It's open secret ROCA is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, and Chinese missiles can hit anywhere in TW in 7 minutes. If anything, if PRC wants to unilaterally attack TW, you would expect PRC to manufacture casus belli that TW is pursuing nuclear program to preemptively strike TW before they even start assembling an invasion force. Most of the world would be left shrugging because nuclear proliferation of non recognized UN state is going to be jus ad bellum reason for PRC to start whacking TW indiscriminantly. The entire PRC invasion can be seen months away is stupid for this reason, they're not going to telegraph an amphib build up before destroying TWs military first. And as seen in exercises in response to Pelosi, they can pull that operation together in days, the hardware movement itself indistinguishable from exercise mobilization.