4 ms·

What does the version in 2040 look like? We’re 17 years on from the first iPhone, and it’s still the same basic device. Incrementally better every year hasn’t m

by robg 3y ago

What does the version in 2040 look like? We’re 17 years on from the first iPhone, and it’s still the same basic device. Incrementally better every year hasn’t meant any radical changes.

frozenport 3y ago
It runs a desktop os and you can use your regular apps, along with a keyboard and mouse.
novok 3y ago
That is like saying doom and cyberpunk 2077 are fundamentally the same thing.
- elliotec 3y ago
  It’s not like saying that, but saying that doesn’t seem too absurd anyway.
- kevingadd 3y ago
  as a game developer: they really are. the finer details are different, but the primary mode of interaction is pretty much the same. you bob and weave around rapidly while shooting at enemies who shoot back at you and a lot of the locations you fight your way through are pretty similar structurally to classic doom levels. they even have somewhat similar music styles. it's not bad for them to have the same fundamentals! it's important to recognize our roots and know the difference between something truly and fundamentally different vs something that is just extremely refined and iterated.
kingds 3y ago
it’s insane to argue that the iPhone 15 isn’t radically different from the iPhone 1. since 2007 smartphones have become capable of replacing so many of the separate gadgets people used to have. cameras and mp3 players (and phones!!) are basically a thing of the past thanks to the iPhone. i’m bearish on Apple Vision but if Apple can improve it at the same rate as the iPhone it will be here to stay imo
- robg 3y ago
  Smartphones can do more, but are they radically different? Same look and feel, modestly better battery life. From v1 the camera is the biggest addition to what Jobs said - iPod, phone, browser. If AVP has the same incremental improvements, it will still be a bulky media device at best and I’ll still want to take it off for phone calls, work, and even taking photographs. Still cool, but not spatial computing.
- ryanbrunner 3y ago
  > cameras and mp3 players (and phones!!) are basically a thing of the past thanks to the iPhone This was all true with the first iPhone though. That's the point. I'm sure that the Vision pro will be refined, but what will be necessary to make this a mass market device seems more fundamental than just a lot of refinements. When the iPhone came out, I remember thinking it was too expensive and not for me, but I definitely wanted one and was jealous of the few people I knew who had one. I just don't have that feeling with the Vision Pro - to the point where I feel if I was given one for free I still couldn't see myself using it much. That's sort of rare for Apple devices - even if I think some things are ridiculously overpriced I would always be happy with a free one and make good use of it.
  - jc_dc 3y ago
    It’s because you probably had a phone before the iPhone. If you’re not already a vr user then it’s hard to imagine how this will fit in your life. For me, if I happen to get an opportunity to strap a vr device to my face be interested to play around, but not motivated enough to go out of my way for it. As a developer, I already spend a fortune on devices and simply can’t see any of our products benefiting from vr…this was true with oculus, and is still true with vision pro.
- johnfernow 3y ago
  The iPhone 1 is perhaps a stretch, but how have things meaningfully changed since the iPhone 4? (which in 2010 introduced the front-facing camera, something that radically changed how many people use their phone.) That was over 13 years ago, and while SOCs have become faster (though OS's, apps, and websites have become more bloated), the devices have become larger (which makes it easier to type and fit a larger battery), and the cameras have definitely improved, but I can't think of anything I regularly do on my current phone that the iPhone 4's hardware wasn't capable of supporting. The iPhone 4 already replaced many people's dedicated flashlights, watches, cameras, and GPS navigators back then. Sure, software has changed. Online dating is far more prevalent, but the iPhone 4 definitely could run dating apps, even if it was less common. Likewise, paying people through digital apps is much more common now, but it's not like Venmo or PayPal didn't use to run on the iPhone 4. The way we use our phones since the iPhone 4 released has changed, but not because of hardware changes. I mean modders have gotten Android 14 running on the Galaxy S3, which released nearly 12 years ago.
crazygringo 3y ago
Same as the iPhone: thinner, 4x resolution, much bigger screen (means much larger FOV for the AVP). A budget SE version. I think it's going to become very normalized for consuming movies, TV, and console gaming (2D). Super popular on planes, trains, even car trips for kids.
- robg 3y ago
  Agreed all around, just isn’t the future of spatial computing we’re being sold on. As an entertainment only device I’m sold if I were traveling more.

by robg 3y ago

What does the version in 2040 look like? We’re 17 years on from the first iPhone, and it’s still the same basic device. Incrementally better every year hasn’t meant any radical changes.

frozenport 3y ago

It runs a desktop os and you can use your regular apps, along with a keyboard and mouse.

novok 3y ago

That is like saying doom and cyberpunk 2077 are fundamentally the same thing.

elliotec 3y ago
It’s not like saying that, but saying that doesn’t seem too absurd anyway.
kevingadd 3y ago
as a game developer: they really are. the finer details are different, but the primary mode of interaction is pretty much the same. you bob and weave around rapidly while shooting at enemies who shoot back at you and a lot of the locations you fight your way through are pretty similar structurally to classic doom levels. they even have somewhat similar music styles. it's not bad for them to have the same fundamentals! it's important to recognize our roots and know the difference between something truly and fundamentally different vs something that is just extremely refined and iterated.

kingds 3y ago

it’s insane to argue that the iPhone 15 isn’t radically different from the iPhone 1. since 2007 smartphones have become capable of replacing so many of the separate gadgets people used to have. cameras and mp3 players (and phones!!) are basically a thing of the past thanks to the iPhone. i’m bearish on Apple Vision but if Apple can improve it at the same rate as the iPhone it will be here to stay imo

robg 3y ago
Smartphones can do more, but are they radically different? Same look and feel, modestly better battery life. From v1 the camera is the biggest addition to what Jobs said - iPod, phone, browser. If AVP has the same incremental improvements, it will still be a bulky media device at best and I’ll still want to take it off for phone calls, work, and even taking photographs. Still cool, but not spatial computing.
ryanbrunner 3y ago
> cameras and mp3 players (and phones!!) are basically a thing of the past thanks to the iPhone This was all true with the first iPhone though. That's the point. I'm sure that the Vision pro will be refined, but what will be necessary to make this a mass market device seems more fundamental than just a lot of refinements. When the iPhone came out, I remember thinking it was too expensive and not for me, but I definitely wanted one and was jealous of the few people I knew who had one. I just don't have that feeling with the Vision Pro - to the point where I feel if I was given one for free I still couldn't see myself using it much. That's sort of rare for Apple devices - even if I think some things are ridiculously overpriced I would always be happy with a free one and make good use of it.
- jc_dc 3y ago
  It’s because you probably had a phone before the iPhone. If you’re not already a vr user then it’s hard to imagine how this will fit in your life. For me, if I happen to get an opportunity to strap a vr device to my face be interested to play around, but not motivated enough to go out of my way for it. As a developer, I already spend a fortune on devices and simply can’t see any of our products benefiting from vr…this was true with oculus, and is still true with vision pro.
johnfernow 3y ago
The iPhone 1 is perhaps a stretch, but how have things meaningfully changed since the iPhone 4? (which in 2010 introduced the front-facing camera, something that radically changed how many people use their phone.) That was over 13 years ago, and while SOCs have become faster (though OS's, apps, and websites have become more bloated), the devices have become larger (which makes it easier to type and fit a larger battery), and the cameras have definitely improved, but I can't think of anything I regularly do on my current phone that the iPhone 4's hardware wasn't capable of supporting. The iPhone 4 already replaced many people's dedicated flashlights, watches, cameras, and GPS navigators back then. Sure, software has changed. Online dating is far more prevalent, but the iPhone 4 definitely could run dating apps, even if it was less common. Likewise, paying people through digital apps is much more common now, but it's not like Venmo or PayPal didn't use to run on the iPhone 4. The way we use our phones since the iPhone 4 released has changed, but not because of hardware changes. I mean modders have gotten Android 14 running on the Galaxy S3, which released nearly 12 years ago.

crazygringo 3y ago

Same as the iPhone: thinner, 4x resolution, much bigger screen (means much larger FOV for the AVP). A budget SE version. I think it's going to become very normalized for consuming movies, TV, and console gaming (2D). Super popular on planes, trains, even car trips for kids.

robg 3y ago
Agreed all around, just isn’t the future of spatial computing we’re being sold on. As an entertainment only device I’m sold if I were traveling more.