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As a media consumption device it seems really cool, but I don’t see how the 10th or 20th generation version is relevant for daily life or work. Magic Leap spent

by robg 3y ago

As a media consumption device it seems really cool, but I don’t see how the 10th or 20th generation version is relevant for daily life or work. Magic Leap spent over $4 Billion on the physics of high definition light onto the retina. There just doesn’t seem to be any way around the reality of the limitations in the AR approach. In 20 years it will still be a bulky headset with battery life limitations preventing the all-purpose computing device. Still seems really interesting for media consumption and even short duration, high value healthcare applications.

dougmwne 3y ago
I agree. AR is dead in the water until we invent magic displays that may be decades away. VR has some nice gaming and fitness applications and I think like handheld gaming as a niche, VR gaming will never take over completely but will always be its own little corner of gaming.
- robg 3y ago
  Healthcare applications are also really interesting to me because those tend to be high value for 30-60 minutes. The Department of Veteran Affairs, for instance, is the largest health system in the U.S. and has a nationwide network of clinicians already using AR/VR applications. https://www.innovation.va.gov/hil/views/immersive/immersive.html https://www.innovation.va.gov/hil/views/immersive/immersive....
- bottlepalm 3y ago
  There is an entire generation of kids growing up with VR now, much like the NES a long time ago. Many of them spend more of their free time in VR than real life.
  - ryanbrunner 3y ago
    My kid has a VR headset, along with a few of his friends. He certainly uses it but it's a huge exagerration to say that he spends more of his free time in VR than real life. Minecraft / Roblox / Fortnite you could make an argument for maybe (depending on age).
    - bottlepalm 3y ago
      Didn’t say your kid, I said many kids.
      - ryanbrunner 3y ago
        All of his friends with VR headsets as well. It's an occasional toy sort of device for pretty much everyone I know. I realize that the plural of anecdotes isn't data, so if you have actual data I'm happy to see it!
- FreeTrade 3y ago
  An addictive game that incorporates a full body workout will be the killer app. Meta will get there first.
Springtime 3y ago
> In 20 years it will still be a bulky headset with battery life limitations preventing the all-purpose computing device. The nreal glasses show that a more compact sunglasses form factor is possible, though it's not doing anything cutting-edge, lens or compute-wise.
- Animats 3y ago
  Yes. Nreal seems more like an Apple product than the Apple product.
  - dmix 3y ago
    Apple doesn't need it to be in a sunglasses form factor for it to be successful. Xbox never leaves the house and is a major product. They just need sufficent use cases that people will actually use and stuff like rethinking UIs from static monitors/TVs/ipad screens -> flexibly overlayed around you, how people watch movies or how data is delivered visually/contextually while you're at home or in the office is a pretty big deal on its own. Everyone is so caught up in it not being an outdoor device which IMO is missing the point for the stage the tech is at right now. Nailing down simple indoor use, for an entirely new computing plaform/interface, seems like a legitimate first step before people are walking around outside with it. All the 3rd party devs need to nail it down too. Like stage 1 self driving cars, you use it on a closed track before you put it on the street.
    - FreeTrade 3y ago
      Apple products are a status purchase. Half the value comes from reminding other people that you have them. Very little opportunity for that with this new device.
outcoldman 3y ago
It is a long path not only to improve technology, but also find applications. It is like iPhone, was a long road to get where we are right now. It is possible that we might not find applications, and it is going to be dead end, as we had with 3D Movies. Sure it is fun to watch them on AVP as well, but it is way cooler to watch a movie even on smaller screen but with a good company.
ProxCoques 3y ago
I think the reason why they called it "Pro" was because this version is to work out how the market cleaves to which use cases. So next year will we get the "Vision Media" and the "Vision Workstation" that specialise in being just a TV and a computer monitor on your face, respectively? BTW things like short duration, high value healthcare applications is where Hololens is being used for right now I think.

by robg 3y ago

dougmwne 3y ago

I agree. AR is dead in the water until we invent magic displays that may be decades away. VR has some nice gaming and fitness applications and I think like handheld gaming as a niche, VR gaming will never take over completely but will always be its own little corner of gaming.

robg 3y ago
Healthcare applications are also really interesting to me because those tend to be high value for 30-60 minutes. The Department of Veteran Affairs, for instance, is the largest health system in the U.S. and has a nationwide network of clinicians already using AR/VR applications. https://www.innovation.va.gov/hil/views/immersive/immersive.html https://www.innovation.va.gov/hil/views/immersive/immersive....
bottlepalm 3y ago
There is an entire generation of kids growing up with VR now, much like the NES a long time ago. Many of them spend more of their free time in VR than real life.
- ryanbrunner 3y ago
  My kid has a VR headset, along with a few of his friends. He certainly uses it but it's a huge exagerration to say that he spends more of his free time in VR than real life. Minecraft / Roblox / Fortnite you could make an argument for maybe (depending on age).
  - bottlepalm 3y ago
    Didn’t say your kid, I said many kids.
    - ryanbrunner 3y ago
      All of his friends with VR headsets as well. It's an occasional toy sort of device for pretty much everyone I know. I realize that the plural of anecdotes isn't data, so if you have actual data I'm happy to see it!
FreeTrade 3y ago
An addictive game that incorporates a full body workout will be the killer app. Meta will get there first.

Springtime 3y ago

> In 20 years it will still be a bulky headset with battery life limitations preventing the all-purpose computing device. The nreal glasses show that a more compact sunglasses form factor is possible, though it's not doing anything cutting-edge, lens or compute-wise.

Animats 3y ago
Yes. Nreal seems more like an Apple product than the Apple product.
- dmix 3y ago
  Apple doesn't need it to be in a sunglasses form factor for it to be successful. Xbox never leaves the house and is a major product. They just need sufficent use cases that people will actually use and stuff like rethinking UIs from static monitors/TVs/ipad screens -> flexibly overlayed around you, how people watch movies or how data is delivered visually/contextually while you're at home or in the office is a pretty big deal on its own. Everyone is so caught up in it not being an outdoor device which IMO is missing the point for the stage the tech is at right now. Nailing down simple indoor use, for an entirely new computing plaform/interface, seems like a legitimate first step before people are walking around outside with it. All the 3rd party devs need to nail it down too. Like stage 1 self driving cars, you use it on a closed track before you put it on the street.
  - FreeTrade 3y ago
    Apple products are a status purchase. Half the value comes from reminding other people that you have them. Very little opportunity for that with this new device.

outcoldman 3y ago

It is a long path not only to improve technology, but also find applications. It is like iPhone, was a long road to get where we are right now. It is possible that we might not find applications, and it is going to be dead end, as we had with 3D Movies. Sure it is fun to watch them on AVP as well, but it is way cooler to watch a movie even on smaller screen but with a good company.

ProxCoques 3y ago

I think the reason why they called it "Pro" was because this version is to work out how the market cleaves to which use cases. So next year will we get the "Vision Media" and the "Vision Workstation" that specialise in being just a TV and a computer monitor on your face, respectively? BTW things like short duration, high value healthcare applications is where Hololens is being used for right now I think.