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This reminds me of the excellent series "Blueprint for Armageddon" in Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast [1]. It's about the First World War. WWI tends to ge
by jmyeet 3y ago
This reminds me of the excellent series "Blueprint for Armageddon" in Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast [1]. It's about the First World War. WWI tends to get less attention than WW2 and while there are good reasons why we focus on the atrocities of WW2, in some ways WWI was far more devastating.
The artillery production mentioned here reminds me of how scales changed from the beginning to the end of the war. At the outbreak, IIRC Russia produced ~35K artillery shells per month and was using ~25K per day. By 1917, there was a battle where a combined total of ONE MILLION artillery shells were fired (between the two sides) in a period of roughly 4 hours.
Every war seems to have a defining technology that's new and makes it unlike previous wars. This is rarely clear to military leadership before the war starts so tends to mean the calculations are off. For example, the US Civil War was the first war fought with mass-produced, long-range, fast-loading and accurate rifles, which led to >600K deaths. By comparison, the US lost 400k servicemen in WW2.
In WWI, that defining technology was really artillery. To a lesser extent it was machine guns too. Air power became a factor late in the war but the concepts of aerial bombardment, strategic bombardment and air superiority wouldn't really come into their own until WW2. The real solution to artillery and fixed positions ultimately became the tank But WWi ended before this really took off. Like air power, it would become a huge factor in WW2.
Why this is important is because the war in Ukraine is in many ways similar to WWI. Air power isn't really a factor but the most defining factors are artillery, trenches, fortifications and terrain, most notably the Dnipro River.
Russia has built 3 lines of impressive fortifications that mirror German positions in WWI. Russia's strategy is essentially to dig in, use the river as a barrier and wait for the West to get bored or lose patience with supplying Ukraine such that Ukraine sues for peace and Russia gains territory east of the river, creating a land bridge to Crimea.
But in a WWI style war, artillery is incredibly important. It can be used to cover an advance into a fortified position (eg a creeping barrage [2]). These were tactics that were developed and learned through WWI.
Oh and if you want to see how devastating this can be look no further than Verdun, the so-called "Red Zone" (Zone Rouge) [3].
[1]: https://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-50-55-blueprint-for-armageddon-series/ https://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-50-55-blu...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrage_(artillery)#Creeping_barrage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrage_(artillery)#Creeping_b...
[3]: https://www.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-i/zone-rouge.html https://www.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-i/zone-rouge.html
- morkalork 3y agoAnd now in Ukraine FPV kamikaze drones have gone from a makeshift novelty to the government aiming to produce 1M in 2024: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-produce-million-fpv-drones-next-year-minister-2023-12-20/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-produce-million...
- Dig1t 3y agoI saw a video of these things in action killing somebody on the battlefield, it was truly disgusting. Seeing videos like that has made me feel like I don’t care who wins the conflict anymore, it just needs to come to an end.
- atlasunshrugged 3y agoWatch some of the clips of the Bucha massacre of innocent civilians and I hope you will reassess. The war is brutal, but a bad "peace" could be worse. https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008299178/ukraine-bucha-russia-massacre-video.html https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008299178/u...
- kspacewalk2 3y agoIt's no more and no less "disgusting" than being burned in an APC, have your limbs torn off in a trench by an artillery shell, or slowly bleeding out after being shot in a field. You just normally don't see those deaths, and here you saw one. Why does that make you not care who wins this war, the ones waging a fascist colonial war or the ones defending their families from it?
- kstenerud 3y agoPeople felt this way about Europe in WW2 as well. Freedom is paid for in blood. People forget that after a few generations of peace, and then we have to pay again because we grew complacent.
- euroderf 3y agoWars seem to come and go in 50-ish year cycles. The experiences of the grandfathers are forgotten.