4 ms·

Id say fortnight has quite the ways to go then. Counterstrike and World of Warcraft have 15-20 years headstart and are still going.

gamepsys 3y ago
I was actually thinking about World of Warcraft when I was thinking about a game that failed to be sticky. World of Warcraft peaked in subscriber count in 2010, and has generally seen steady decline since then. I think the numbers for WoW look worse when you consider how sharply it's share of the video game market has declined. The video game market has ballooned in size while Wow's user base is slowly bleeding out. It's hard to get accurate data, but Fortnite has roughly 100x more users than World of Warcraft. Counterstrike is an even smaller userbase.
- meheleventyone 3y ago
  A game that has lasted twenty years as a commercial project has definitely not failed to be sticky! There’s a lot of hope and desire for “forever games” particularly from investors but there is no such thing. They will all have a peak and a steady decline at some stage. Social networks exhibit this pattern as well.
- Reason077 3y ago
  > ”World of Warcraft peaked in subscriber count in 2010, and has generally seen steady decline since then.” Sure, but even in 2024 this 20-year old game has a paid monthly player count well into the millions. Extremely successful by any measure. And perhaps one of the most profitable game franchises of all time.
- spookie 3y ago
  How is Counter Strike small? It has consistently 1.5 million daily players. It's about the same as Fortnite.
- bombcar 3y ago
  World of Warcraft is no failure by any measure, but it’s not the world-defining explosion it once was. Existing players keep playing but you rarely hear of new players; at best they may convince old subscribers to return. Minecraft is also old but seems to be collecting new players decently well.
  - gamepsys 3y ago
    This isn't about WoW, this is about Disney & Epic. If Fortnite fails to be stickier than WoW then this investment will be pretty bad. World of Warcraft is probably the stickiest game in history. I can also see how an investment in Blizzard in the year 2010 might have been overly optimistic about WoW's future.
Shrezzing 3y ago
On longevity+userbase I think Minecraft and Roblox might have both beat. Both are 15+ years old, with enormous userbases, crucially their userbases include huge numbers of kids. WoW and Counterstrike have large loyal fanbases, but I'd be surprised if the age of the average user didn't increase by around 1 year per year.
- bombcar 3y ago
  Exactly - a very successful business can be had serving an existing group of customers for life, but eventually it will die out if new blood isn’t entering. Perhaps the only new kids playing WoW are literally children of people who met in the game …

gamepsys 3y ago

I was actually thinking about World of Warcraft when I was thinking about a game that failed to be sticky. World of Warcraft peaked in subscriber count in 2010, and has generally seen steady decline since then. I think the numbers for WoW look worse when you consider how sharply it's share of the video game market has declined. The video game market has ballooned in size while Wow's user base is slowly bleeding out. It's hard to get accurate data, but Fortnite has roughly 100x more users than World of Warcraft. Counterstrike is an even smaller userbase.

meheleventyone 3y ago
A game that has lasted twenty years as a commercial project has definitely not failed to be sticky! There’s a lot of hope and desire for “forever games” particularly from investors but there is no such thing. They will all have a peak and a steady decline at some stage. Social networks exhibit this pattern as well.
Reason077 3y ago
> ”World of Warcraft peaked in subscriber count in 2010, and has generally seen steady decline since then.” Sure, but even in 2024 this 20-year old game has a paid monthly player count well into the millions. Extremely successful by any measure. And perhaps one of the most profitable game franchises of all time.
spookie 3y ago
How is Counter Strike small? It has consistently 1.5 million daily players. It's about the same as Fortnite.
bombcar 3y ago
World of Warcraft is no failure by any measure, but it’s not the world-defining explosion it once was. Existing players keep playing but you rarely hear of new players; at best they may convince old subscribers to return. Minecraft is also old but seems to be collecting new players decently well.
- gamepsys 3y ago
  This isn't about WoW, this is about Disney & Epic. If Fortnite fails to be stickier than WoW then this investment will be pretty bad. World of Warcraft is probably the stickiest game in history. I can also see how an investment in Blizzard in the year 2010 might have been overly optimistic about WoW's future.

Shrezzing 3y ago

On longevity+userbase I think Minecraft and Roblox might have both beat. Both are 15+ years old, with enormous userbases, crucially their userbases include huge numbers of kids. WoW and Counterstrike have large loyal fanbases, but I'd be surprised if the age of the average user didn't increase by around 1 year per year.

bombcar 3y ago
Exactly - a very successful business can be had serving an existing group of customers for life, but eventually it will die out if new blood isn’t entering. Perhaps the only new kids playing WoW are literally children of people who met in the game …