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This is of course mostly due to the giant US subsidies the federal government is offering citizens now, but the EV must be "built" in the US (Which has some lo

This is of course mostly due to the giant US subsidies the federal government is offering citizens now, but the EV must be "built" in the US (Which has some loopholes and strange definitions in it) I dont quite understand why the sales of EVs in the US is considered to have flattened out according to some statistics.

skeeter2020 3y ago
My understanding is this is model and region dependent. Example: the Ford lightning has tepid demand in a lot of US markets and a multi-year waiting list in Canada. (I realize you're focused on US, but so much of the auto supply chain is coordinated between the 2 countries)
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  I like the Lightning but as a practical matter it's a little bit of a tough sell. Pickups are so terribly inefficient to begin with that it needs a boatload of battery just to have acceptable range. That's expensive, and also increases the time it takes to charge. I commend Ford for the ambition to make an electric version of their best selling vehicle, but I think that segment will be stronger when 200+ kWh batteries are affordable and flattish 350kW charge rates are the norm.
njarboe 3y ago
All, or almost all EV brands in the US are selling less this year than last. Except Tesla, which has about 65% market share.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  You know this in February? The real point is that Tesla has been driving prices lower than other manufacturers are willing to stomach, and that resistance to price matching shows up as cars sitting on lots.
  - davemp 3y ago
    I was looking at Hyundai’s Ioniq 6, but at $38k you get less HP and meaningful/comfort features than my 2015 v6 accord that I bought in 2018 for $19k (now worth $18k). I only drive like 3-6k miles/yr anyways. tbf the car market seems to have out stripped baseline inflation in general though.
    - rootusrootus 3y ago
      My neighbor drives an EV and his fuel savings are about $1300/month. He drives a lot.
rootusrootus 3y ago
> I dont quite understand why the sales of EVs in the US is considered to have flattened out according to some statistics. Politics. Some people want it to be true, so they conflate an easing of the growth rate as an actual rate reduction. It could also be innocent ignorance of statistics. The real hang up with EVs right now is primarily price. They're just reaching the point where TCO is a wash. Historically, most people are extremely responsive to fuel cost advantages, so as the capital cost comes down most people will switch. At least the ones who can charge at home, which is most. I do feel bad for people who live in places with high electricity prices, like California and Massachusetts. Makes it harder to win on TCO, but at least the convenience factor is still there. But for those who can access sub-10 cent per kWh pricing, it's nice to spend a few hundred dollars per year for fuel.
- MuffinFlavored 3y ago
  > But for those who can access sub-10 cent per kWh pricing I think you need a blend of solar for that https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/ https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/ The cheapest in the country is $0.1122/kWh in Utah. The average is $0.17/kWh
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    > The cheapest in the country is $0.1122/kWh in Utah That is demonstrably not true. That tool is reporting "average rates" for each state and excluding time-of-use. E.g. I pay 4.7 cents/kWh inclusive of all grid fees, but only after 9pm. It's trivial to schedule charging for an EV so it happens when you sleep.
    - MuffinFlavored 3y ago
      Good call out, mistake on my end. Thank you. What do you pay before 9pm?
- ThinkBeat 3y ago
  but the massive $7000 subsidy should make EVs a lot more competitive?

skeeter2020 3y ago

My understanding is this is model and region dependent. Example: the Ford lightning has tepid demand in a lot of US markets and a multi-year waiting list in Canada. (I realize you're focused on US, but so much of the auto supply chain is coordinated between the 2 countries)

rootusrootus 3y ago
I like the Lightning but as a practical matter it's a little bit of a tough sell. Pickups are so terribly inefficient to begin with that it needs a boatload of battery just to have acceptable range. That's expensive, and also increases the time it takes to charge. I commend Ford for the ambition to make an electric version of their best selling vehicle, but I think that segment will be stronger when 200+ kWh batteries are affordable and flattish 350kW charge rates are the norm.

njarboe 3y ago

All, or almost all EV brands in the US are selling less this year than last. Except Tesla, which has about 65% market share.

rootusrootus 3y ago
You know this in February? The real point is that Tesla has been driving prices lower than other manufacturers are willing to stomach, and that resistance to price matching shows up as cars sitting on lots.
- davemp 3y ago
  I was looking at Hyundai’s Ioniq 6, but at $38k you get less HP and meaningful/comfort features than my 2015 v6 accord that I bought in 2018 for $19k (now worth $18k). I only drive like 3-6k miles/yr anyways. tbf the car market seems to have out stripped baseline inflation in general though.
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    My neighbor drives an EV and his fuel savings are about $1300/month. He drives a lot.

rootusrootus 3y ago

> I dont quite understand why the sales of EVs in the US is considered to have flattened out according to some statistics. Politics. Some people want it to be true, so they conflate an easing of the growth rate as an actual rate reduction. It could also be innocent ignorance of statistics. The real hang up with EVs right now is primarily price. They're just reaching the point where TCO is a wash. Historically, most people are extremely responsive to fuel cost advantages, so as the capital cost comes down most people will switch. At least the ones who can charge at home, which is most. I do feel bad for people who live in places with high electricity prices, like California and Massachusetts. Makes it harder to win on TCO, but at least the convenience factor is still there. But for those who can access sub-10 cent per kWh pricing, it's nice to spend a few hundred dollars per year for fuel.

MuffinFlavored 3y ago
> But for those who can access sub-10 cent per kWh pricing I think you need a blend of solar for that https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/ https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/ The cheapest in the country is $0.1122/kWh in Utah. The average is $0.17/kWh
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  > The cheapest in the country is $0.1122/kWh in Utah That is demonstrably not true. That tool is reporting "average rates" for each state and excluding time-of-use. E.g. I pay 4.7 cents/kWh inclusive of all grid fees, but only after 9pm. It's trivial to schedule charging for an EV so it happens when you sleep.
  - MuffinFlavored 3y ago
    Good call out, mistake on my end. Thank you. What do you pay before 9pm?
ThinkBeat 3y ago
but the massive $7000 subsidy should make EVs a lot more competitive?