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> It wasn’t rational for him to force his way onto Hong Kong When that happened, Hong Kong was involved in ongoing riots and people were proclaiming (Hong Kong

by hnfong 3y ago

> It wasn’t rational for him to force his way onto Hong Kong When that happened, Hong Kong was involved in ongoing riots and people were proclaiming (Hong Kong) independence on the streets for months. The legislature was stormed in an event that was not unlike Jan 6 Capitol Hill in the US (we sure did feel the awkward resemblance of the two events...) Everyone can have their views on whether suppressing the riots was morally justified, but Xi had to do something to assert the CCP's sovereignty over Hong Kong. It was the only rational move unless they were prepared to give up Hong Kong. > the territory would automatically become China in a few decades Not sure which place you're talking about. Hong Kong is already part of China at least since the 1997 handover. And Taiwan will never become under CCP rule if status quo is preserved. Don't think there's any mechanism for "automatically" taking over Taiwan. I don't know how familiar you are with the history, but long-term thinking and patience was essentially the reason China was able to gain back control Hong Kong from the Brits, pretty much on China's terms. They took advantage of the 99-year lease on the New Territories, waited until the Brits started developing on the leased (as opposed to ceded) land, and caught them with their pants down when they realized they had no feasible plan to partially hand back the territory when the lease expired. Hong Kong has always been a template (in the CCP's mind at least) for taking back Taiwan, I don't know how you'd come to the conclusion that they would forego long term potential for short term gains. It's like you're talking as if they already invaded Taiwan and you're shaking your head over the stupidity of it. (No, it hasn't happened yet.) The threat of course always seem real enough. It's all a game of chicken. The one who seems most crazy wins. Back then during the 1970s, China also threatened to invade Hong Kong if the Brits didn't hand it back to them. They want you to think the leadership is irrational. Makes them harder to predict.

throwaway2990 3y ago
China was forcing HK to accept China laws and HK didn’t want it. They protested. Don’t try and and make it sound like HK were just randomly protesting nothing.
- gggmaster 3y ago
  HK is part of China.
  - throwaway2990 3y ago
    And it was part of 1 country 2 systems. Which proved there is no such thing. Because the CCP still has their foot in HK and making sure there is no 2 systems.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> Hong Kong was involved in ongoing riots Because Xi ham-fistedly forced through a badly-written security law [1] and intervened in its politics [2]. It’s like stupid Tiannamen Square. > long-term thinking and patience was essentially the reason China was able to gain back control Hong Kong from the Brits China was rational under the CCP. It’s myopic under Xi. > don't know how you'd come to the conclusion that they would forego long term potential for short term gains They already did. Hong Kong’s mess was avoidable. Most Taiwanese identifying as Taiwanese and not Chinese was avoidable [3]. The trade wars, and China being reëclipsed in manufacturing by U.S. + Japan + Deutschland, were avoidable [4]. The bank losses on overseas loans were avoidable [5]. The corruption in the rocket forces, which guarantees no Taiwan action until China’s military strength is past its relative nadir, was avoidable [6]. All of these missteps would not have happened under proper CCP leadership. They are expressions of Xi’s personal hubris. China sacrificed the immortality of its state for the favour of its mortal dictator; it’s possibly the luckiest geopolitical stroke for America after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. > during the 1970s, China also threatened to invade Hong Kong if the Brits didn't hand it back to them. They want you to think the leadership is irrational But they didn’t. That’s rational. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Hong_Kong_extradition_bill https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Hong_Kong_extradition_b... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56264117 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56264117 [3] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/16/most-people-in-taiwan-see-themselves-as-primarily-taiwanese-few-say-theyre-primarily-chinese/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/16/most-peop... [4] https://www.safeguardglobal.com/resources/top-10-manufacturing-countries-in-the-world-2023/ https://www.safeguardglobal.com/resources/top-10-manufacturi... [5] https://www.ft.com/content/da01c562-ad29-4c34-ae5e-a0aafddd377c https://www.ft.com/content/da01c562-ad29-4c34-ae5e-a0aafddd3... [6] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-military-rocket-force-uncovers-shortcomings-pla-daily-2023-09-15/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-military-rocket-f...
- hnfong 3y ago
  > Because Xi ham-fistedly forced through a badly-written security law [1] and intervened in its politics [2]. It’s like stupid Tiannamen Square. [1] has no mention of Xi. [2] is in 2021, way after the protests/riots. I have reliable sources (not mass media, especially not western mass media) telling me that the security law was championed by the Hong Kong government (Carrie Lam in particular). The Chinese Central People's Government was not actively involved until the whole thing spiraled out of control. I won't/can't tell you how involved I was in the events, but Trust Me Bro ™ I'm not just reading the news and coming to the conclusions that I wrote.

by hnfong 3y ago

throwaway2990 3y ago

China was forcing HK to accept China laws and HK didn’t want it. They protested. Don’t try and and make it sound like HK were just randomly protesting nothing.

gggmaster 3y ago
HK is part of China.
- throwaway2990 3y ago
  And it was part of 1 country 2 systems. Which proved there is no such thing. Because the CCP still has their foot in HK and making sure there is no 2 systems.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> Hong Kong was involved in ongoing riots Because Xi ham-fistedly forced through a badly-written security law [1] and intervened in its politics [2]. It’s like stupid Tiannamen Square. > long-term thinking and patience was essentially the reason China was able to gain back control Hong Kong from the Brits China was rational under the CCP. It’s myopic under Xi. > don't know how you'd come to the conclusion that they would forego long term potential for short term gains They already did. Hong Kong’s mess was avoidable. Most Taiwanese identifying as Taiwanese and not Chinese was avoidable [3]. The trade wars, and China being reëclipsed in manufacturing by U.S. + Japan + Deutschland, were avoidable [4]. The bank losses on overseas loans were avoidable [5]. The corruption in the rocket forces, which guarantees no Taiwan action until China’s military strength is past its relative nadir, was avoidable [6]. All of these missteps would not have happened under proper CCP leadership. They are expressions of Xi’s personal hubris. China sacrificed the immortality of its state for the favour of its mortal dictator; it’s possibly the luckiest geopolitical stroke for America after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. > during the 1970s, China also threatened to invade Hong Kong if the Brits didn't hand it back to them. They want you to think the leadership is irrational But they didn’t. That’s rational. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Hong_Kong_extradition_bill https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Hong_Kong_extradition_b... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56264117 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56264117 [3] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/16/most-people-in-taiwan-see-themselves-as-primarily-taiwanese-few-say-theyre-primarily-chinese/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/16/most-peop... [4] https://www.safeguardglobal.com/resources/top-10-manufacturing-countries-in-the-world-2023/ https://www.safeguardglobal.com/resources/top-10-manufacturi... [5] https://www.ft.com/content/da01c562-ad29-4c34-ae5e-a0aafddd377c https://www.ft.com/content/da01c562-ad29-4c34-ae5e-a0aafddd3... [6] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-military-rocket-force-uncovers-shortcomings-pla-daily-2023-09-15/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-military-rocket-f...

hnfong 3y ago
> Because Xi ham-fistedly forced through a badly-written security law [1] and intervened in its politics [2]. It’s like stupid Tiannamen Square. [1] has no mention of Xi. [2] is in 2021, way after the protests/riots. I have reliable sources (not mass media, especially not western mass media) telling me that the security law was championed by the Hong Kong government (Carrie Lam in particular). The Chinese Central People's Government was not actively involved until the whole thing spiraled out of control. I won't/can't tell you how involved I was in the events, but Trust Me Bro ™ I'm not just reading the news and coming to the conclusions that I wrote.