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Can someone explain why they think the AVP version in 2034 will be light years ahead of v1? I see amazing engineering but not many places to shrink everything i

by robg 3y ago

Can someone explain why they think the AVP version in 2034 will be light years ahead of v1? I see amazing engineering but not many places to shrink everything into a lightweight pair of glasses.

ceejayoz 3y ago
What other physical tech product doesn't meaningfully improve in a decade? (Maybe the TI-83 calculator?)
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
nomel 3y ago
You should ignore anyone claiming unquantifiables like "light years ahead". In 10 years, my hopeful list is: * More custom/specialized silicon for XR. There's aren't many players here currently. * Retina/~60 PPD. * Micro LED (not OLED), making varifocal and HDR possible. * Varifocal lenses, which are just as important for comfort as high res. * Cameras optimized for passthrough, rather than borrowed from cellphones. * Lighter weight. They're almost tolerable, rather than acceptable, as is. This almost certainly involves offloading some of the compute. But, a powerful untethered XR system and a lightweight set of untethered glasses will necessarily be very different, in capabilities. I imagine I'll end up with a tethered device, as a display replacement, in the next 10 years.
- robg 3y ago
  Thanks for this list, doesn’t seem like the pair of glasses that people are envisioning, more like iPhone X, lots of incremental improvements but not a major difference from v1 to v10 or even v15.
  - nomel 3y ago
    > doesn’t seem like the pair of glasses that people are envisioning Do you have an example of these people, or what they're envisioning? Are they expecting ready player one type glasses in the next 10 years? I think there will be different classes of devices: everyday wearable AR more than XR, and screen replacement/heavy compute XR, with vastly different experiences. > lots of incremental improvements As should be expected. This is the only way tech has ever progressed, without exception. The only perceived exceptions involved shifting existing tech into a space that it wasn't present before. > from v1 to v10 or even v15. I think it's a little more than that. I think most would agree that it's not usable, in its current state, for a screen replacement, or as a primary computing device. Even Apple suggested so in their announcement, saying something like "short trips". I suspect that V15 will be the primary computing device, for most people. If that ends up being true, that's significant.
grecy 3y ago
> Can someone explain why they think the AVP version in 2034 will be light years ahead of v1? Think back to when the iPhone first came out - could you have predicted how it would improve over the next 10, or 15 years? Sure some things are obvious like faster networking, higher quality screen, better camera and just faster processor. But in all honesty I'd say some of the biggest improvements are apps that now define how we use it and what we use it for. It's obviously so much more than a phone. I'm not sure anyone quite knows what the future of VR/AR truly is, but I'm betting it will apps which will change how we use it and what we use it for that will make it "light years ahead" of where we are now.

by robg 3y ago

Can someone explain why they think the AVP version in 2034 will be light years ahead of v1? I see amazing engineering but not many places to shrink everything into a lightweight pair of glasses.

ceejayoz 3y ago

What other physical tech product doesn't meaningfully improve in a decade? (Maybe the TI-83 calculator?)

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

nomel 3y ago

You should ignore anyone claiming unquantifiables like "light years ahead". In 10 years, my hopeful list is: * More custom/specialized silicon for XR. There's aren't many players here currently. * Retina/~60 PPD. * Micro LED (not OLED), making varifocal and HDR possible. * Varifocal lenses, which are just as important for comfort as high res. * Cameras optimized for passthrough, rather than borrowed from cellphones. * Lighter weight. They're almost tolerable, rather than acceptable, as is. This almost certainly involves offloading some of the compute. But, a powerful untethered XR system and a lightweight set of untethered glasses will necessarily be very different, in capabilities. I imagine I'll end up with a tethered device, as a display replacement, in the next 10 years.

robg 3y ago
Thanks for this list, doesn’t seem like the pair of glasses that people are envisioning, more like iPhone X, lots of incremental improvements but not a major difference from v1 to v10 or even v15.
- nomel 3y ago
  > doesn’t seem like the pair of glasses that people are envisioning Do you have an example of these people, or what they're envisioning? Are they expecting ready player one type glasses in the next 10 years? I think there will be different classes of devices: everyday wearable AR more than XR, and screen replacement/heavy compute XR, with vastly different experiences. > lots of incremental improvements As should be expected. This is the only way tech has ever progressed, without exception. The only perceived exceptions involved shifting existing tech into a space that it wasn't present before. > from v1 to v10 or even v15. I think it's a little more than that. I think most would agree that it's not usable, in its current state, for a screen replacement, or as a primary computing device. Even Apple suggested so in their announcement, saying something like "short trips". I suspect that V15 will be the primary computing device, for most people. If that ends up being true, that's significant.

grecy 3y ago

> Can someone explain why they think the AVP version in 2034 will be light years ahead of v1? Think back to when the iPhone first came out - could you have predicted how it would improve over the next 10, or 15 years? Sure some things are obvious like faster networking, higher quality screen, better camera and just faster processor. But in all honesty I'd say some of the biggest improvements are apps that now define how we use it and what we use it for. It's obviously so much more than a phone. I'm not sure anyone quite knows what the future of VR/AR truly is, but I'm betting it will apps which will change how we use it and what we use it for that will make it "light years ahead" of where we are now.