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Agreed. I live in the CA, and am a homeowner. I love the efficiency of heat pumps. I have a high personal incentive to install cool efficient tech. I have the 2

Agreed. I live in the CA, and am a homeowner. I love the efficiency of heat pumps. I have a high personal incentive to install cool efficient tech. I have the 20k lying around to install a heat pump (or 5-7k for a mini split). Yet I will never install a heat pump, because PG&E is running a racket on electricity prices. In fact, I’m considering instead installing a new wood stove / masonry heater. CA needs to get its incentives aligned to meet any of these goals. You want people to electrify? Just make it cheaper to run in the long term, and everybody will just do it by default.

downWidOutaFite 3y ago
PG&E is charging you to pay for wildfire lawsuits and to bury power lines so that people can keep building cities in forests.
- photonbeam 3y ago
  The state should pay for that out of general taxes rather that shifting the economic incentives of power use
  - amluto 3y ago
    IMO the state should have forced PG&E into liquidation, bought all the assets, and converted the whole mess to a public utility. It would surely take some time to learn how to operate PG&E’s disaster of a system, but it’s not as though PG&E can competently operate its own system right now.
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago
      I hated this idea at the time, but have come around to it. Im fairly libertarian, but understand that competition is difficult for the power distribution network. As much as I think the state is inefficient, a cost plus regulated monopoly is even worse. Municipal power companies in CA run $0.10-0.20 per kwh, while PG&E is $0.40-0.50 cents, and going up.
      - amluto 3y ago
        It would be amusing to require PG&E to match the average rates of the municipal utilities plus 10%. And then liquidate them when their stock goes to zero as a result :)
- psunavy03 3y ago
  Which leads to opening up a whole nother can of worms regarding forest mismanagement and lack of controlled burns.
- s1artibartfast 3y ago
  They are also regulated to have a 10% profit margin, so that only way to increase revenue is to drive up costs year after year.
NullPrefix 3y ago
>Just make it cheaper to run in the long term, and everybody will just do it by default That's how you get exorbitant taxes on the alternatives
et-al 3y ago
On top of this, the CPUC lowered incentives for solar last year: https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/11/california-solar-payment/ https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/11/california-solar-...
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  California was paying rooftop solar owners far too much. Poor people who couldn’t afford solar were subsidizing the grid for solar owners.
  - hightrix 3y ago
    Yes, this is what the CPUC said but was a ridiculous argument in favor of raising profits moreso than helping lower income people. The climate should take precendence over everything else. Incentives for rooftop solar should increase, incentives to help lower income people should increase, electricity record profits should not be a thing. This is entirely due to regulatory capture, not some "good will towards poor people" that the electricity industry is pushing.
    - HDThoreaun 3y ago
      It doesnt make any sense to force utilities to pay retail prices for electricity when wholesale prices are 10x lower. There are much more efficient ways to encourage renewables.
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago
      Net metering actually increases both costs and profits. Power companies have a fixed margin of 10% and a captive market. If power costs them $1, they make $0.1. If power costs them $5, they make $0.50. Rooftop solar costs 10X what commercial solar does. Every kw of rooftop power they buy means 10kw of commercial solar isnt built.
    - sokoloff 3y ago
      > electricity record profits should not be a thing Unless the electricity consumption is falling faster than inflation, I'd expect the regulated-profit electric utility to be having record profits essentially all the time.
stephen_g 3y ago
How is a mini-split $5-7K in the US? A 6kW Mitsubishi Electric mini-split is $1800 (US$1200) here in Australia and you’ll pay another $650 (US$420) to get it installed… My 5 kW air to water heat pump was about $6K (US$4K) before a $900 (US$600) rebate but they are less common here so I think still cost a bit more than in Europe or the UK.
- Slevin11 3y ago
  Yeah so basically the guideline here is 25 btus per sqft, which is 270 btus per m2, house is 110ish m2, so it’s roughly 30k btus. So then get a 30k btu condenser, about $3400, plus three 12k air handlers ($600 each or so), plus labor and the rest of the random parts. Could be overkill, I’m just following guidelines for the estimate.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  HVAC companies bid as if they're entitled to $4K of labor/profit for a half-day of on-site work. It's maddening.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    Im frustrated with HVAC and solar too, but I suppose that as long as nobody else wants to do the work, they are indeed correct.
    - sokoloff 3y ago
      Indeed. Not helping are all the "get a heat pump installed and receive a $6K rebate"s (which drive up the bid price by around $5K-$6K).
      - s1artibartfast 3y ago
        Yep, same story with solar rebates, most of it goes to the installer. Home construction work is really interesting, because the transaction costs are so high around locating and comparing the service providers. It is easy to say there isnt enough competition, but im not sure that is actually true. I think more likely is that most consumers dont collect 10+ quotes and compare, so the price signal is weak.

downWidOutaFite 3y ago

PG&E is charging you to pay for wildfire lawsuits and to bury power lines so that people can keep building cities in forests.

photonbeam 3y ago
The state should pay for that out of general taxes rather that shifting the economic incentives of power use
- amluto 3y ago
  IMO the state should have forced PG&E into liquidation, bought all the assets, and converted the whole mess to a public utility. It would surely take some time to learn how to operate PG&E’s disaster of a system, but it’s not as though PG&E can competently operate its own system right now.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    I hated this idea at the time, but have come around to it. Im fairly libertarian, but understand that competition is difficult for the power distribution network. As much as I think the state is inefficient, a cost plus regulated monopoly is even worse. Municipal power companies in CA run $0.10-0.20 per kwh, while PG&E is $0.40-0.50 cents, and going up.
    - amluto 3y ago
      It would be amusing to require PG&E to match the average rates of the municipal utilities plus 10%. And then liquidate them when their stock goes to zero as a result :)
psunavy03 3y ago
Which leads to opening up a whole nother can of worms regarding forest mismanagement and lack of controlled burns.
s1artibartfast 3y ago
They are also regulated to have a 10% profit margin, so that only way to increase revenue is to drive up costs year after year.

NullPrefix 3y ago

>Just make it cheaper to run in the long term, and everybody will just do it by default That's how you get exorbitant taxes on the alternatives

et-al 3y ago

On top of this, the CPUC lowered incentives for solar last year: https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/11/california-solar-payment/ https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/11/california-solar-...

HDThoreaun 3y ago
California was paying rooftop solar owners far too much. Poor people who couldn’t afford solar were subsidizing the grid for solar owners.
- hightrix 3y ago
  Yes, this is what the CPUC said but was a ridiculous argument in favor of raising profits moreso than helping lower income people. The climate should take precendence over everything else. Incentives for rooftop solar should increase, incentives to help lower income people should increase, electricity record profits should not be a thing. This is entirely due to regulatory capture, not some "good will towards poor people" that the electricity industry is pushing.
  - HDThoreaun 3y ago
    It doesnt make any sense to force utilities to pay retail prices for electricity when wholesale prices are 10x lower. There are much more efficient ways to encourage renewables.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    Net metering actually increases both costs and profits. Power companies have a fixed margin of 10% and a captive market. If power costs them $1, they make $0.1. If power costs them $5, they make $0.50. Rooftop solar costs 10X what commercial solar does. Every kw of rooftop power they buy means 10kw of commercial solar isnt built.
  - sokoloff 3y ago
    > electricity record profits should not be a thing Unless the electricity consumption is falling faster than inflation, I'd expect the regulated-profit electric utility to be having record profits essentially all the time.

stephen_g 3y ago

How is a mini-split $5-7K in the US? A 6kW Mitsubishi Electric mini-split is $1800 (US$1200) here in Australia and you’ll pay another $650 (US$420) to get it installed… My 5 kW air to water heat pump was about $6K (US$4K) before a $900 (US$600) rebate but they are less common here so I think still cost a bit more than in Europe or the UK.

Slevin11 3y ago
Yeah so basically the guideline here is 25 btus per sqft, which is 270 btus per m2, house is 110ish m2, so it’s roughly 30k btus. So then get a 30k btu condenser, about $3400, plus three 12k air handlers ($600 each or so), plus labor and the rest of the random parts. Could be overkill, I’m just following guidelines for the estimate.
sokoloff 3y ago
HVAC companies bid as if they're entitled to $4K of labor/profit for a half-day of on-site work. It's maddening.
- s1artibartfast 3y ago
  Im frustrated with HVAC and solar too, but I suppose that as long as nobody else wants to do the work, they are indeed correct.
  - sokoloff 3y ago
    Indeed. Not helping are all the "get a heat pump installed and receive a $6K rebate"s (which drive up the bid price by around $5K-$6K).
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago
      Yep, same story with solar rebates, most of it goes to the installer. Home construction work is really interesting, because the transaction costs are so high around locating and comparing the service providers. It is easy to say there isnt enough competition, but im not sure that is actually true. I think more likely is that most consumers dont collect 10+ quotes and compare, so the price signal is weak.