4 ms·

This is assuming uncorrelated results too. As you observe more and more of your businesses failing, you would want to update your estimate of your own rate of f

This is assuming uncorrelated results too. As you observe more and more of your businesses failing, you would want to update your estimate of your own rate of failure. Each new failure in a string of only failures is slight evidence that your own rate of failure may be >90%, even if it's 90% on average for everyone.

lisper 3y ago
Yes this is crucial. If you can’t improve your odds after nine tries then you are doing something very wrong. That does not change the fact that the best thing you can do to tilt the odds in your favor is to choose your parents carefully.
- WalterBright 3y ago
  The surest way to fail is to blame your parents.
  - selcuka 3y ago
    > The surest way to fail is to blame your parents. You wouldn't be wrong as they have a very strong correlation [1]. [1] https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-key-to-entrepreneurship-study-657058 https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-...
- giantrobot 3y ago
  You can have nine businesses all fail for separate reasons. Learn all you want from each failure but the next business might fail in new and creative ways no matter what lessons you apply from previous failures. The 10% chance to succeed is a combination of lots of factors, many of which are completely out of your control.
- dtdynasty 3y ago
  I also wonder how many of the failed business in the stats already are an entrepreneurs third or fourth attempt. Some repeated attempts may already be factored into the failure rate!
- nothercastle 3y ago
  Life is probably too short to start 10 businesses
  - lisper 3y ago
    Not if nine of them fail. Also, Elon Musk has done nine and he is only 52.
Gibbon1 3y ago
I had a conversation on an airplane with a lady that read scripts for a movie studio. I learned three things. You submit a script they'll read it for purely liability reasons. Most scripts are garbage. But of the ones that aren't about 10% get bought. So if you're good you can make a living script writing. Some other bit about being a movie producer. Guy said people ask how you can become a producer. He said it's impossible. No one will let you produce a movie unless you've done one before. But if you have even if it is terrible and flops, you're a producer and can get work. Combine those two. If you have the want, low grade cunning, and persistence you can totally make a living starting businesses after your first disaster.

lisper 3y ago

Yes this is crucial. If you can’t improve your odds after nine tries then you are doing something very wrong. That does not change the fact that the best thing you can do to tilt the odds in your favor is to choose your parents carefully.

WalterBright 3y ago
The surest way to fail is to blame your parents.
- selcuka 3y ago
  > The surest way to fail is to blame your parents. You wouldn't be wrong as they have a very strong correlation [1]. [1] https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-key-to-entrepreneurship-study-657058 https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-...
giantrobot 3y ago
You can have nine businesses all fail for separate reasons. Learn all you want from each failure but the next business might fail in new and creative ways no matter what lessons you apply from previous failures. The 10% chance to succeed is a combination of lots of factors, many of which are completely out of your control.
dtdynasty 3y ago
I also wonder how many of the failed business in the stats already are an entrepreneurs third or fourth attempt. Some repeated attempts may already be factored into the failure rate!
nothercastle 3y ago
Life is probably too short to start 10 businesses
- lisper 3y ago
  Not if nine of them fail. Also, Elon Musk has done nine and he is only 52.

Gibbon1 3y ago

I had a conversation on an airplane with a lady that read scripts for a movie studio. I learned three things. You submit a script they'll read it for purely liability reasons. Most scripts are garbage. But of the ones that aren't about 10% get bought. So if you're good you can make a living script writing. Some other bit about being a movie producer. Guy said people ask how you can become a producer. He said it's impossible. No one will let you produce a movie unless you've done one before. But if you have even if it is terrible and flops, you're a producer and can get work. Combine those two. If you have the want, low grade cunning, and persistence you can totally make a living starting businesses after your first disaster.