4 ms·

If 90% of businesses fail and you start 10 businesses, you still have about 35% chance of failing at all 10 of them.

by t8sr 3y ago

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
xvedejas 3y ago
This is assuming uncorrelated results too. As you observe more and more of your businesses failing, you would want to update your estimate of your own rate of failure. Each new failure in a string of only failures is slight evidence that your own rate of failure may be >90%, even if it's 90% on average for everyone.
- lisper 3y ago
  Yes this is crucial. If you can’t improve your odds after nine tries then you are doing something very wrong. That does not change the fact that the best thing you can do to tilt the odds in your favor is to choose your parents carefully.
  - WalterBright 3y ago
    The surest way to fail is to blame your parents.
    - selcuka 3y ago
      > The surest way to fail is to blame your parents. You wouldn't be wrong as they have a very strong correlation [1]. [1] https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-key-to-entrepreneurship-study-657058 https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-...
  - giantrobot 3y ago
    You can have nine businesses all fail for separate reasons. Learn all you want from each failure but the next business might fail in new and creative ways no matter what lessons you apply from previous failures. The 10% chance to succeed is a combination of lots of factors, many of which are completely out of your control.
  - dtdynasty 3y ago
    I also wonder how many of the failed business in the stats already are an entrepreneurs third or fourth attempt. Some repeated attempts may already be factored into the failure rate!
  - nothercastle 3y ago
    Life is probably too short to start 10 businesses
    - lisper 3y ago
      Not if nine of them fail. Also, Elon Musk has done nine and he is only 52.
- Gibbon1 3y ago
  I had a conversation on an airplane with a lady that read scripts for a movie studio. I learned three things. You submit a script they'll read it for purely liability reasons. Most scripts are garbage. But of the ones that aren't about 10% get bought. So if you're good you can make a living script writing. Some other bit about being a movie producer. Guy said people ask how you can become a producer. He said it's impossible. No one will let you produce a movie unless you've done one before. But if you have even if it is terrible and flops, you're a producer and can get work. Combine those two. If you have the want, low grade cunning, and persistence you can totally make a living starting businesses after your first disaster.
waprin 3y ago
Yes I understand basic math but I would implore you to improve your reading comprehension as I used the word “probably “ (which 65% qualified as) and emphasized we can’t eliminate luck but can influence it.
- t8sr 3y ago
  Sir, this is Hacker News. Replying with snarky arithmetic is pretty much the what passes for a bon mot around here. If you don't enjoy that, you will probably (>65% chance) find HN a stressful forum. OTOH, if you assume we're not on average dumb or trying to get a rise out of you, you'll have a good time. If I wanted to be really snarky, I would point out that words like "probably" actually have agreed upon numerical values (give or take), and 65% would often be described as "about as likely as not". [^1] Although it's close to the "likely" range, I will grant you. :P [^1]: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertaintyguidancenote-1.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertai...
  - waprin 3y ago
    Your account is from 2021 so spare me the lecture on the rules of Hacker News. If you don’t want me to assume you have poor reading comprehension skills, don’t leave comments indicating that.
    - t8sr 3y ago
      Being pissy to strangers on the internet is a choice, friend. I hope whatever is making you feel bad about yourself gets better.
yesbut 3y ago
If 90% of businesses fail then just put armor on the ones with bullet holes.

If 90% of businesses fail and you start 10 businesses, you still have about 35% chance of failing at all 10 of them.

by t8sr 3y ago

If 90% of businesses fail and you start 10 businesses, you still have about 35% chance of failing at all 10 of them.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

xvedejas 3y ago

This is assuming uncorrelated results too. As you observe more and more of your businesses failing, you would want to update your estimate of your own rate of failure. Each new failure in a string of only failures is slight evidence that your own rate of failure may be >90%, even if it's 90% on average for everyone.

lisper 3y ago
Yes this is crucial. If you can’t improve your odds after nine tries then you are doing something very wrong. That does not change the fact that the best thing you can do to tilt the odds in your favor is to choose your parents carefully.
- WalterBright 3y ago
  The surest way to fail is to blame your parents.
  - selcuka 3y ago
    > The surest way to fail is to blame your parents. You wouldn't be wrong as they have a very strong correlation [1]. [1] https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-key-to-entrepreneurship-study-657058 https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-...
- giantrobot 3y ago
  You can have nine businesses all fail for separate reasons. Learn all you want from each failure but the next business might fail in new and creative ways no matter what lessons you apply from previous failures. The 10% chance to succeed is a combination of lots of factors, many of which are completely out of your control.
- dtdynasty 3y ago
  I also wonder how many of the failed business in the stats already are an entrepreneurs third or fourth attempt. Some repeated attempts may already be factored into the failure rate!
- nothercastle 3y ago
  Life is probably too short to start 10 businesses
  - lisper 3y ago
    Not if nine of them fail. Also, Elon Musk has done nine and he is only 52.
Gibbon1 3y ago
I had a conversation on an airplane with a lady that read scripts for a movie studio. I learned three things. You submit a script they'll read it for purely liability reasons. Most scripts are garbage. But of the ones that aren't about 10% get bought. So if you're good you can make a living script writing. Some other bit about being a movie producer. Guy said people ask how you can become a producer. He said it's impossible. No one will let you produce a movie unless you've done one before. But if you have even if it is terrible and flops, you're a producer and can get work. Combine those two. If you have the want, low grade cunning, and persistence you can totally make a living starting businesses after your first disaster.

waprin 3y ago

Yes I understand basic math but I would implore you to improve your reading comprehension as I used the word “probably “ (which 65% qualified as) and emphasized we can’t eliminate luck but can influence it.

t8sr 3y ago
Sir, this is Hacker News. Replying with snarky arithmetic is pretty much the what passes for a bon mot around here. If you don't enjoy that, you will probably (>65% chance) find HN a stressful forum. OTOH, if you assume we're not on average dumb or trying to get a rise out of you, you'll have a good time. If I wanted to be really snarky, I would point out that words like "probably" actually have agreed upon numerical values (give or take), and 65% would often be described as "about as likely as not". [^1] Although it's close to the "likely" range, I will grant you. :P [^1]: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertaintyguidancenote-1.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertai...
- waprin 3y ago
  Your account is from 2021 so spare me the lecture on the rules of Hacker News. If you don’t want me to assume you have poor reading comprehension skills, don’t leave comments indicating that.
  - t8sr 3y ago
    Being pissy to strangers on the internet is a choice, friend. I hope whatever is making you feel bad about yourself gets better.

yesbut 3y ago

If 90% of businesses fail then just put armor on the ones with bullet holes.