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I'm of the thinking that the only risk US government debt possess is Congress deciding to default on it. But seeing as its illegal for the government to defaul
by mywittyname 3y ago
I'm of the thinking that the only risk US government debt possess is Congress deciding to default on it. But seeing as its illegal for the government to default on its debt, I don't see this actually happening.
Where are companies going to park their dollars, if not in t-bonds? They really don't have much choice. Stock buybacks/dividends get the dollars off the books, but investors pay the taxes on the funds, then are forced to make this same decision themselves. They can invest in real estate, but that's a distraction and still has the drain of property taxes and maintenance. Buying foreign bonds provides diversity, but raises the risk of forex swings. Maybe overpriced private equity?
This same thing goes for every entity who buys up t-bonds. There is no good alternative to t-bonds. Think US companies are going to start moving their USD to Euros? Yeah, no, not with Russia actively invading a neighbor. China? Good luck ever getting that money back out of the country. Switzerland? Good choice, but the economy is far too small, and the deflationary crisis that would result from capital inflows would be swiftly handled by the government. India? Saudi Arabia? Face it, there's no good alternative to US t-bonds.
The "national debt crisis" has been going on for decades now. There's really no evidence to suggest that it's actually a crisis at all. Nobody can say for sure at what level the debt becomes an actual issue, and what exactly the fallout will be. People make predictions at what level the debt becomes an issue, but we keep passing those milestones and the economy keeps going.
It seems like political posturing to me. "Deficit Hawks" bitch about the debt on national TV with the other party is in power, then make up BS on how their platform of doing everything except directing more money to paying it off debt will actually reduce the deficit. I guarantee the Venn diagram of people who supported the TJCA (which the GAO said would greatly increase the national debt) and who are currently telling us how dangerous the national debt is, is basically a perfect circle.