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Just about every category in your chart shows a reversal from a downward trend before 2019 into an upward trend from 2019 onward. The precipitous and unusual dr

Just about every category in your chart shows a reversal from a downward trend before 2019 into an upward trend from 2019 onward. The precipitous and unusual drop at the end of the axis reflects a lack of data. Just about every kind of crime is up in Portland as well over 2018 numbers, with homicides almost quadrupling 3 years later. The “both sides” should be considered, because Portland isn’t a war-zone like the far right would portray it as, but it’s significantly worse than it used to be with no reversal in sight. There are worse places to live in the US today, but I’m not off-base for wanting safety and local quality of life to improve rather than decline when compared to previous years. And sure, the next thing to blame is the pandemic recovery. We all faced drastic changes over the last few years, but objectively some of our cities (like Portland where I live) are not recovering as well or at all compared to national trends. And as for Portland, most of our deteriorating trends started before the pandemic. 2020-2022 just accelerated their trajectories.

ajross 3y ago
> Just about every category in your chart shows a reversal from a downward trend before 2019 into an upward trend from 2019 onward Literally every category in that chart shows a reduction in crime over the last year. You're inventing a "trend" by extrapolating a line straight across an outlier (the covid pandemic). No one would look at that data and say crime is getting worse. You'd say crime got worse and is now back at baseline.
- ilikehurdles 3y ago
  What does the sentence after the one you quoted say? I forgot. A line graph showing a precipitous drop in the most recent time bucket available is a red flag that you shouldn’t trust that data point.
  - ajross 3y ago
    Why? It's not a real time measurement, they're just adding up the crimes from the 2023 data. Do you expect the 2023 numbers to be revised? Was that true for earlier years? Seems unlikely.

ajross 3y ago

> Just about every category in your chart shows a reversal from a downward trend before 2019 into an upward trend from 2019 onward Literally every category in that chart shows a reduction in crime over the last year. You're inventing a "trend" by extrapolating a line straight across an outlier (the covid pandemic). No one would look at that data and say crime is getting worse. You'd say crime got worse and is now back at baseline.

ilikehurdles 3y ago
What does the sentence after the one you quoted say? I forgot. A line graph showing a precipitous drop in the most recent time bucket available is a red flag that you shouldn’t trust that data point.
- ajross 3y ago
  Why? It's not a real time measurement, they're just adding up the crimes from the 2023 data. Do you expect the 2023 numbers to be revised? Was that true for earlier years? Seems unlikely.