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The good news: the renewables explosion is going to make a big difference. Thanks to the plummeting cost (and rapid deployment, particularly in China) of solar

The good news: the renewables explosion is going to make a big difference. Thanks to the plummeting cost (and rapid deployment, particularly in China) of solar and wind, we are almost certainly going to see better emissions pathways than the bad ones we're currently projecting. None of this happened by accident: it was engineered. The bad news is that we seem to be much closer to some really bad climate outcomes than scientists realized. Sensitivity may be higher, warming seems to be further advanced than we thought, and there are many scary tipping points that we could easily trigger. My guess is that we're going to need some sort of (relatively near-term) geoengineering solution to keep things from spiraling, which means we really have no room left for climate denial. (And to be clear, this isn't going to be an alternative to decarbonizing, it's going to be in addition.)

lagt_t 3y ago
The lithium bubble burst is an indicator that the renewables push is losing strength. The pandemic and later the yemen-gaza-ukraine combo shifted priorities. Meanwhile Europe is no longer inching but running towards an ecological disaster with the ever increasing drought-deluge cycles.
- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  I don't think so. Right now the renewables push is 90% about China: they're the biggest global emitter and also (previously) had the biggest rate of emissions growth. They're now expected to plateau this year and enter a structural decline. And China is still deploying renewables at an unbelievable rate [1] as of last month. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-wind-solar-capacity-overtake-coal-2024-industry-body-2024-01-30/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-wind-solar-ca...
  - lagt_t 3y ago
    We are lucky that the real estate bubble finally burst in China, that was one of the key drivers of pollution there.
JohnMakin 3y ago
> The good news: the renewables explosion is going to make a big difference Sorry but I've been hearing this for 15 years now. It's only resulted in widespread greenwashing and misplaced climate optimism. Now, even if everyone went carbon neutral overnight with renewables the situation is so dire that we may still be in a very bad spot (as you mention in the rest of your post). And, while I'm at it, let me mention that part briefly: > The bad news is that we seem to be much closer to some really bad climate outcomes than scientists realized. They realized it for a long, long time. No one listened, and people/media latched on to the most absurdly optimistic models as a sign that everything was fine and we could continue to procrastinate on this problem. Any "pessimistic" models were thrown out as bunk science. stuff like this is even now still referred to as "doomerism."
- antisthenes 3y ago
  > Sorry but I've been hearing this for 15 years now. Really? Care to share the cost per KWh of batteries numbers from 15 years ago? What about $/Watt for PV modules? Or maybe just deployment numbers of solar/wind? I mean maybe, just maybe, we can have progress on the renewables front without people crying about "greenwashing"? > No one listened, and people/media latched on to the most absurdly optimistic models as a sign that everything was fine and we could continue to procrastinate on this problem. Many areas in the US will be fine. Rich people ignore it because they have the money to move away from affected areas, and poor people don't really have a media voice. But that's typical USA for you, so nothing surprising there.
  - JohnMakin 3y ago
    I don't really know how you can square this supposed "tremendous success" of renewables when statistics like this are out there: https://statista.com/statistics/282716/oil-consumption-in-the-us-per-day/ https://statista.com/statistics/282716/oil-consumption-in-th... Oil consumption is still increasing year over year. People like you have been saying the same things about renewables for a long, long time. I suppose it'll come any day now!
    - 3y ago
timeon 3y ago
> we are almost certainly going to see better emissions pathways than the bad ones we're currently projecting I hope you are right. But when I am looking at ourworldindata chart about energy sources I still do not see this picture. While renewables are increasing, fossil fuels are not decreasing. It just seams that renewables are starting to cover ever increasing demand - not replacing all demand.
- adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
  the good news is that 1. in most of the world energy usage is steady or decreasing 2. renewable energy production is accelerating 3. while renewable energy hasn't killed fossil fuel use, it has shifted it dramatically. coal is basically dead in most of the world because it has been priced out by renewables.

lagt_t 3y ago

The lithium bubble burst is an indicator that the renewables push is losing strength. The pandemic and later the yemen-gaza-ukraine combo shifted priorities. Meanwhile Europe is no longer inching but running towards an ecological disaster with the ever increasing drought-deluge cycles.

matthewdgreen 3y ago
I don't think so. Right now the renewables push is 90% about China: they're the biggest global emitter and also (previously) had the biggest rate of emissions growth. They're now expected to plateau this year and enter a structural decline. And China is still deploying renewables at an unbelievable rate [1] as of last month. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-wind-solar-capacity-overtake-coal-2024-industry-body-2024-01-30/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-wind-solar-ca...
- lagt_t 3y ago
  We are lucky that the real estate bubble finally burst in China, that was one of the key drivers of pollution there.

JohnMakin 3y ago

> The good news: the renewables explosion is going to make a big difference Sorry but I've been hearing this for 15 years now. It's only resulted in widespread greenwashing and misplaced climate optimism. Now, even if everyone went carbon neutral overnight with renewables the situation is so dire that we may still be in a very bad spot (as you mention in the rest of your post). And, while I'm at it, let me mention that part briefly: > The bad news is that we seem to be much closer to some really bad climate outcomes than scientists realized. They realized it for a long, long time. No one listened, and people/media latched on to the most absurdly optimistic models as a sign that everything was fine and we could continue to procrastinate on this problem. Any "pessimistic" models were thrown out as bunk science. stuff like this is even now still referred to as "doomerism."

antisthenes 3y ago
> Sorry but I've been hearing this for 15 years now. Really? Care to share the cost per KWh of batteries numbers from 15 years ago? What about $/Watt for PV modules? Or maybe just deployment numbers of solar/wind? I mean maybe, just maybe, we can have progress on the renewables front without people crying about "greenwashing"? > No one listened, and people/media latched on to the most absurdly optimistic models as a sign that everything was fine and we could continue to procrastinate on this problem. Many areas in the US will be fine. Rich people ignore it because they have the money to move away from affected areas, and poor people don't really have a media voice. But that's typical USA for you, so nothing surprising there.
- JohnMakin 3y ago
  I don't really know how you can square this supposed "tremendous success" of renewables when statistics like this are out there: https://statista.com/statistics/282716/oil-consumption-in-the-us-per-day/ https://statista.com/statistics/282716/oil-consumption-in-th... Oil consumption is still increasing year over year. People like you have been saying the same things about renewables for a long, long time. I suppose it'll come any day now!
  - 3y ago

timeon 3y ago

> we are almost certainly going to see better emissions pathways than the bad ones we're currently projecting I hope you are right. But when I am looking at ourworldindata chart about energy sources I still do not see this picture. While renewables are increasing, fossil fuels are not decreasing. It just seams that renewables are starting to cover ever increasing demand - not replacing all demand.

adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
the good news is that 1. in most of the world energy usage is steady or decreasing 2. renewable energy production is accelerating 3. while renewable energy hasn't killed fossil fuel use, it has shifted it dramatically. coal is basically dead in most of the world because it has been priced out by renewables.