Aside from the correlation of the sponges' state changes and industrialization being in the same general time period, is there a causal link in the study? This

Aside from the correlation of the sponges' state changes and industrialization being in the same general time period, is there a causal link in the study? This is the part I struggle with when I think of the massive temperature and sea level changes on a geologic time scale. The numbers that the current climate concern are dealing with (temp, sea level rise, etc.) are so tiny. How are the models controlled from the variables in the otherwise seemingly chaotic, wild swings in the lifetime of the planet? It's amazing to me that we can zoom in and make such high resolution determinations like that. I wish, as a laymen, someone could explain how we do it.