3 ms·

Tell me we're not in a bubble. =| I mean Tesla itself is hideously overvalued.

by moose_man 3y ago

robertlagrant 3y ago
You should keep that sort of tip under your hat and short them yourself.
- moose_man 3y ago
  Why would I do that? I think the fact that this sort of insane manic runups happens every few months on an anointed stock since the GameStop spectacle shows that institutional investors have now harnessed that sort of movement into a regular market maneuver. This isn't a sign of a functional market, why would I do something rational in a broken market?
  - aniforprez 3y ago
    Since... the Gamestop spectacle? Do you hear yourself? Stock market darlings have probably been a thing since the stock market
    - moose_man 3y ago
      Oh yes, Trumps SPAC DWAC was truly a market darling.
      - aniforprez 3y ago
        Yeah man no reason the SPAC in the name of a former President with companies he's propped up who is the leading candidate for the opposition party with the incumbent reportedly having abysmal ratings would be having a surge You think the stock market is filled with "rational" actors? It has always ALWAYS been a vibe check since its existence. The Tesla stock is obviously overvalued, not because there is some grand conspiracy to prop up the stock by a bunch of retail investors but because Elon is a hype man and he hypes up his own stocks. Tesla being overvalued is not a new phenomenon
  - jjackson5324 3y ago
    > anointed stock since the GameStop spectacle Mania's have been a thing since the start of markets. It's so funny to see HN readers who know absolutely nothing about finance or capital markets have "houlier-than-thou" attitudes towards institutional money. > why would I do something rational in a broken market Why do you think you're the rational one? That's the entire point of how markets work. No one thinks markets are fully efficient and the way you make money by trading is through exploiting inefficiencies. The market was in a panic mode around Facebook a year and a half ago and if you were smart enough to see that and take advantage then you'd have 4x'd your investment. But I guess you're "too rational" to make money off that sort of thing?
- cm2187 3y ago
  Going short a bubble is a reliable way to become insolvent unless you time the market perfectly, in other words luck.
- miroljub 3y ago
  > You should keep that sort of tip under your hat and short them yourself. Why? The more people shorting something, the better chance for short to succeed. It's in the best self-interest of all people shorting something to be as loud as possible about that.
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  Timing shorts is tough; even clear bubbles can last unexpectedly long. As popularized in "The Big Short": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry > During his payments toward the credit default swaps, Burry suffered an investor revolt, where some investors in his fund worried his predictions were inaccurate and demanded to withdraw their capital. Eventually, Burry's analysis proved correct: He made a personal profit of $100 million and a profit for his remaining investors of more than $700 million. Scion Capital ultimately recorded returns of 489.34% (net of fees and expenses) between its November 1, 2000, inception and June 2008. The S&P 500, widely regarded as the benchmark for the US market, returned just under 3%, including dividends over the same period.
  - rvba 3y ago
    The quote "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is attributed to John Maynard Keynes many years before "the big short" movie even came out.
dubcanada 3y ago
Most of Tesla's value is not actually Tesla, but it's an investment in Elon Musk, and treated more as a moonshot investment then a car company. So it's grossly higher then your average car company. But we could be in a bubble, the key is bubbles can last for years.
- cduzz 3y ago
  On the face of it, "How can Tesla have 2x the market cap of Toyota?!?!" sounds pretty sane. Tesla owns its dealership / sales network; what's the value of those "dealerships"? Similarly tesla runs a huge charging network and has convinced every other manufacturer to switch to their network (in North America). And tesla makes a bunch of power generation / distribution stuff. So "a car company" is incomplete. They also have tons of willing beta testers / AI trainers to go out and train their self driving model -- any tesla out there is collecting driving data and is getting trained by observing the driver's driving and comparing it to "what I'd have done" driving; not sure they'll ever get to "self driving" but there's some value there. Tesla's also run by a drug addled risk addicted narcissist. He's pretty smart and has made a bunch of terrifying large bets that have consistently (cough except solar city and maxwell's dry cell battery stuff, and that eggs / stormfront thing) paid off pretty good.
nurettin 3y ago
TSLA is sort of crashing. The real stock valuation should be more like $150

Tell me we're not in a bubble. =| I mean Tesla itself is hideously overvalued.

robertlagrant 3y ago

You should keep that sort of tip under your hat and short them yourself.

moose_man 3y ago
Why would I do that? I think the fact that this sort of insane manic runups happens every few months on an anointed stock since the GameStop spectacle shows that institutional investors have now harnessed that sort of movement into a regular market maneuver. This isn't a sign of a functional market, why would I do something rational in a broken market?
- aniforprez 3y ago
  Since... the Gamestop spectacle? Do you hear yourself? Stock market darlings have probably been a thing since the stock market
  - moose_man 3y ago
    Oh yes, Trumps SPAC DWAC was truly a market darling.
    - aniforprez 3y ago
      Yeah man no reason the SPAC in the name of a former President with companies he's propped up who is the leading candidate for the opposition party with the incumbent reportedly having abysmal ratings would be having a surge You think the stock market is filled with "rational" actors? It has always ALWAYS been a vibe check since its existence. The Tesla stock is obviously overvalued, not because there is some grand conspiracy to prop up the stock by a bunch of retail investors but because Elon is a hype man and he hypes up his own stocks. Tesla being overvalued is not a new phenomenon
- jjackson5324 3y ago
  > anointed stock since the GameStop spectacle Mania's have been a thing since the start of markets. It's so funny to see HN readers who know absolutely nothing about finance or capital markets have "houlier-than-thou" attitudes towards institutional money. > why would I do something rational in a broken market Why do you think you're the rational one? That's the entire point of how markets work. No one thinks markets are fully efficient and the way you make money by trading is through exploiting inefficiencies. The market was in a panic mode around Facebook a year and a half ago and if you were smart enough to see that and take advantage then you'd have 4x'd your investment. But I guess you're "too rational" to make money off that sort of thing?
cm2187 3y ago
Going short a bubble is a reliable way to become insolvent unless you time the market perfectly, in other words luck.
miroljub 3y ago
> You should keep that sort of tip under your hat and short them yourself. Why? The more people shorting something, the better chance for short to succeed. It's in the best self-interest of all people shorting something to be as loud as possible about that.
ceejayoz 3y ago
Timing shorts is tough; even clear bubbles can last unexpectedly long. As popularized in "The Big Short": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry > During his payments toward the credit default swaps, Burry suffered an investor revolt, where some investors in his fund worried his predictions were inaccurate and demanded to withdraw their capital. Eventually, Burry's analysis proved correct: He made a personal profit of $100 million and a profit for his remaining investors of more than $700 million. Scion Capital ultimately recorded returns of 489.34% (net of fees and expenses) between its November 1, 2000, inception and June 2008. The S&P 500, widely regarded as the benchmark for the US market, returned just under 3%, including dividends over the same period.
- rvba 3y ago
  The quote "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is attributed to John Maynard Keynes many years before "the big short" movie even came out.

dubcanada 3y ago

Most of Tesla's value is not actually Tesla, but it's an investment in Elon Musk, and treated more as a moonshot investment then a car company. So it's grossly higher then your average car company. But we could be in a bubble, the key is bubbles can last for years.

cduzz 3y ago
On the face of it, "How can Tesla have 2x the market cap of Toyota?!?!" sounds pretty sane. Tesla owns its dealership / sales network; what's the value of those "dealerships"? Similarly tesla runs a huge charging network and has convinced every other manufacturer to switch to their network (in North America). And tesla makes a bunch of power generation / distribution stuff. So "a car company" is incomplete. They also have tons of willing beta testers / AI trainers to go out and train their self driving model -- any tesla out there is collecting driving data and is getting trained by observing the driver's driving and comparing it to "what I'd have done" driving; not sure they'll ever get to "self driving" but there's some value there. Tesla's also run by a drug addled risk addicted narcissist. He's pretty smart and has made a bunch of terrifying large bets that have consistently (cough except solar city and maxwell's dry cell battery stuff, and that eggs / stormfront thing) paid off pretty good.

nurettin 3y ago

TSLA is sort of crashing. The real stock valuation should be more like $150