> Hence, a complicated prediction - but if conditions are right, it seems reasonable to conclude that unusually strong hurricanes will become more likely, even

> Hence, a complicated prediction - but if conditions are right, it seems reasonable to conclude that unusually strong hurricanes will become more likely, even if overall frequency is unchanged. Not really, its not caused by warm water, its caused by DIFFERENCES in the temperature from the water and air, which is why we have actually seen fewer hurricanes over the last 20 years (ignoring post 2020 because this decade doesnt have a lot of data in) source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml Its hard to decide when picking a particular category, so what I did was charted category 1s + 2* category 2 + 3 * category 3 ...