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The premise is that if you have a company, for example a delivery company, and viable electric and ICE vehicles exist, the delivery company with an electric fl
by b112 3y ago
The premise is that if you have a company, for example a delivery company, and viable electric and ICE vehicles exist, the delivery company with an electric fleet will have a cost advantage, and it will out compete the ICE fleet company.
Of course, we're just barely into electric mass production of vehicles. And as a result, there is still a cost favour towards ICE, they're currently cheaper.
Will that change? Maybe? Probably? Batteries are the big cost, and range, but these keep improving.
But unless gas costs people $20 per gallon, there won't be a panic switch. Or even $30. So this is going to take decades.
And to add to that, our backbone electric production now produces any excess via carbon. That is, if everyone could magically buy an electric tomorrow, and all industry moved there tomorrow, we have absolutely no way to provide enough power. We'd need to bring back coal, gas burners to provide power in the interm. And on top of that, we don't have enough transmission and distribution station capacity to double power delivery.
So what this all means, is that regardless of incentives, costs, or even desire, it will be 20+ years to get off of oil. It will be a gradual switch.
We should try to accelerate this, certainly. But I am skeptical of the ability for any government to accelerate this too much. There is a limit.
And of course, there is the remaining spectre. Other countries. Some are transitioning, others cannot hope to afford it, some don't care.
Do we go to war to stop it?
edit:
Oh, and don't get me started in the anti-plug in hybrid hate. What fallacy. What lunacy.
I own a delivery company. I need range. Now my options are, go electric and my ICE competition steals my business, or I stay ICE.
What a dumb choice.
Better to have hybrids aplenty, so that companies can transition to full electric. A delivery company could go hybrid, and they'd have incentive to put up solar panels, to roll out charging infra. They'd also be able to have a mixed fleet, some hybrids, some full electric, balancing the cost of solar panels across the entire fleet.
As range improved, they could slowly move more and more to full electric.
But no, hybrids are bad, hate hate the hybrid, anger at, and deride the hybrid, made it difficult for people trying.
I personally cannot, period, ever ever ever go to pure electric due to range and charge time issues. I could go hybrid. Except these are disappearing, and hard to get.
Great. Just great. And telling me I'm wrong is absolutely stupid, I know my needs, I want pure electric, and trying to tell me it's fine is beyond absurd.
Nothing ruins progress more than absolutists.
- ianburrell 3y agoAlso, carbon tax will be needed when we get all of the low hanging fruit. Solar, electric cars, and heat pumps make economic sense. But there are things that are hard to decarbonize like shipping and airliners that will need to be forced to use green fuels instead of the cheaper fossil fuels. It would be better to start now with low tax and increase over time as we decarbonize instead of introducing it in a couple of decades at a high level. For one thing, the funds can be used to incentivize switching or help with problems.