5 ms·

EVs in Europe and the US are on the downward trend at the moment. I’m not entirely sure why, maybe they are still too expensive.

sokoloff 3y ago
The first derivative is still strongly positive. The second derivative is what’s been reported as falling, which is common in the typical S-shaped adoption curve.
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - cpursley 3y ago
    Flagged for making assumptions about my intentions and using very unkind and ugly language towards your fellow citizens.
cpursley 3y ago
For the downvoters, look it up - this is objectively true and has been well reported. And I’m not saying don’t buy an electric car, just that EV sales have decreased.
- rsynnott 3y ago
  … Wait, how are you defining ‘downward trend’? The rate of _growth_ has slackened, which you expect as a product category matures, but sales are still very much growing. I’d be a little more sceptical of the media sources doing this well-reporting, if I were you.
  - cpursley 3y ago
    https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-demand-charts-7d3089c7 https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-demand-c...
    - sokoloff 3y ago
      The legend on that chart says "U.S. electric-vehicle sales, change from a year earlier" That's a plot of the first derivative (which is still positive [+42% at the last measure, meaning for every 100 EVs sold in Nov 2022, there were 142 sold in Nov 2023]) and the slope of that line is a derivative of the first derivative, or a second derivative. tl;dr: EV sales are growing. That rate of growth is slower than it was before.
    - rsynnott 3y ago
      As I said, the rate of growth is decreasing, but sales are still growing. That article is kinda misleadingly couched, tho (I mean, Murdoch media, what can you expect?), and I can see how people could misread it as saying that sales were actually decreasing.
- wongarsu 3y ago
  I couldn't find anything substantiating this claim, everyone is reporting record sales. What is decreasing is sales growth [1]. As in: each year more EVs are sold than the last year, but the difference to previous year's sales is shrinking 1: https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
  - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
    Sometimes the difference is still increasing year on year, but due to the higher baseline, the percentage increase has declined.
- pjc50 3y ago
  No, the absolute sales and percentage of sales is up, it's just the rate of acceleration that's decreased. https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
  - cpursley 3y ago
    This literally has sections labeled “Lower European Expectations” and “North American fall”.
    - Symbiote 3y ago
      You will need to read the sentences or look at the charts rather than just skim the headings.
    - kergonath 3y ago
      Yes. Poor reporting is incredibly common and most journalists seem to have no clue about the difference between a first and a second derivatives. See also, most articles about the economy.
    - rsynnott 3y ago
      But note that the actual data presented shows an increase in sales.
- kergonath 3y ago
  “Look it up” is not a good way to make a point. If you are making the claim, then you need to substantiate it.
  - cpursley 3y ago
    I dropped some links into several comments. Should I for every single response? Look it up.
tpm 3y ago
In the EU current short-term trends don't matter that much as long as the scheduled fleet emmision rules will come into force as is the current regulation. That means from 1.1.2025, for passenger cars 93,6 g CO2/km average (which is impossible with ICE-only cars of current sizes and technology) and the manufacturer pays a fine for anything above that. But that can be relaxed if they sell at least 25% EVs (0 g CO2/km), and higher percentage of those means higher permissible average emmisions. So the manufacturers will be highly motivated to sell more EVs and we can expect all the big manufacturers will hit the 25% quite soon. Then from 1.1.2030 this goes down to 49,5 g CO2/km and at that point ICEs are goint to be increasingly niche. From 1.1.2035 the limit is 0 g CO2/km.
- adrianN 3y ago
  It's pretty easy to achieve fleet goals with plugin hybrids, since they have ridiculously low emissions on the standard tests (unlike in reality).
  - tpm 3y ago
    Which is why new vehicles (since 2021) have a On-Board Fuel Consumption Meter and this data is then collected by the EU.
    - adrianN 3y ago
      Oh I didn’t know that. Does the eu do something with the data? Is it just collected to inform some hypothetical future law? In the latter case that will likely be overtaken by the market favoring BEVs
      - tpm 3y ago
        There is not a lot of info about that, but as far as I could gather the data started to be collected only last year, so probably not a lot right now.

sokoloff 3y ago

The first derivative is still strongly positive. The second derivative is what’s been reported as falling, which is common in the typical S-shaped adoption curve.

ZeroGravitas 3y ago
[flagged]
- cpursley 3y ago
  Flagged for making assumptions about my intentions and using very unkind and ugly language towards your fellow citizens.

cpursley 3y ago

For the downvoters, look it up - this is objectively true and has been well reported. And I’m not saying don’t buy an electric car, just that EV sales have decreased.

rsynnott 3y ago
… Wait, how are you defining ‘downward trend’? The rate of _growth_ has slackened, which you expect as a product category matures, but sales are still very much growing. I’d be a little more sceptical of the media sources doing this well-reporting, if I were you.
- cpursley 3y ago
  https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-demand-charts-7d3089c7 https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-demand-c...
  - sokoloff 3y ago
    The legend on that chart says "U.S. electric-vehicle sales, change from a year earlier" That's a plot of the first derivative (which is still positive [+42% at the last measure, meaning for every 100 EVs sold in Nov 2022, there were 142 sold in Nov 2023]) and the slope of that line is a derivative of the first derivative, or a second derivative. tl;dr: EV sales are growing. That rate of growth is slower than it was before.
  - rsynnott 3y ago
    As I said, the rate of growth is decreasing, but sales are still growing. That article is kinda misleadingly couched, tho (I mean, Murdoch media, what can you expect?), and I can see how people could misread it as saying that sales were actually decreasing.
wongarsu 3y ago
I couldn't find anything substantiating this claim, everyone is reporting record sales. What is decreasing is sales growth [1]. As in: each year more EVs are sold than the last year, but the difference to previous year's sales is shrinking 1: https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  Sometimes the difference is still increasing year on year, but due to the higher baseline, the percentage increase has declined.
pjc50 3y ago
No, the absolute sales and percentage of sales is up, it's just the rate of acceleration that's decreased. https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
- cpursley 3y ago
  This literally has sections labeled “Lower European Expectations” and “North American fall”.
  - Symbiote 3y ago
    You will need to read the sentences or look at the charts rather than just skim the headings.
  - kergonath 3y ago
    Yes. Poor reporting is incredibly common and most journalists seem to have no clue about the difference between a first and a second derivatives. See also, most articles about the economy.
  - rsynnott 3y ago
    But note that the actual data presented shows an increase in sales.
kergonath 3y ago
“Look it up” is not a good way to make a point. If you are making the claim, then you need to substantiate it.
- cpursley 3y ago
  I dropped some links into several comments. Should I for every single response? Look it up.

tpm 3y ago

In the EU current short-term trends don't matter that much as long as the scheduled fleet emmision rules will come into force as is the current regulation. That means from 1.1.2025, for passenger cars 93,6 g CO2/km average (which is impossible with ICE-only cars of current sizes and technology) and the manufacturer pays a fine for anything above that. But that can be relaxed if they sell at least 25% EVs (0 g CO2/km), and higher percentage of those means higher permissible average emmisions. So the manufacturers will be highly motivated to sell more EVs and we can expect all the big manufacturers will hit the 25% quite soon. Then from 1.1.2030 this goes down to 49,5 g CO2/km and at that point ICEs are goint to be increasingly niche. From 1.1.2035 the limit is 0 g CO2/km.

adrianN 3y ago
It's pretty easy to achieve fleet goals with plugin hybrids, since they have ridiculously low emissions on the standard tests (unlike in reality).
- tpm 3y ago
  Which is why new vehicles (since 2021) have a On-Board Fuel Consumption Meter and this data is then collected by the EU.
  - adrianN 3y ago
    Oh I didn’t know that. Does the eu do something with the data? Is it just collected to inform some hypothetical future law? In the latter case that will likely be overtaken by the market favoring BEVs
    - tpm 3y ago
      There is not a lot of info about that, but as far as I could gather the data started to be collected only last year, so probably not a lot right now.