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In a future world of plentiful solar and expensive batteries. Will batteries become cheap? I don't know.

KennyBlanken 3y ago
Why don't you try googling "lithium ion battery history prices" and find out? Top results: "lithium-ion battery prices hit historical low of $140/KWHr"
epistasis 3y ago
Batteries are already cheap. Take these rather conservative (in the sense of being worse for cheapness) numbers that NREL collected: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85332.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85332.pdf $482/kwh of battery capacity, installed to grid 15 year lifetime 85% round trip efficiency, And it costs $88/MWh to store electricity, and adding in charging from the average $40/MW, that's $135/MWh all in for battery costs in 2022-2023. Today will be cheaper, tomorrow cheaper yet. Mix in direct wind production at a 40% capacity factor, annd stored electricity in lithium ion batteries, and wind can become fully dispatchable baseload for less than $90/MWh, at today's prices. For comparison, the cost of Vogtle 3, the most recent nuclear power plant in the US, is $180/MWh. Edit: and the main impediment to plentiful solar is policy & regulations that slow it down. The technology is being deployed at massive rates [1] in the US, 33GW in 2023 compared to 22GW in 2022, and ever accelerating. (Capacity factor adjusted, that's roughly 7GW compared to average US electrify draw of ~500GW, for a single year). But the US is way behind China, which installed 217GW in 2023 [2] [1] https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/chart-the-us-installed-more-solar-in-2023-than-ever-before https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/chart-the-us-inst... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/china-added-more-solar-panels-in-2023-than-us-did-in-its-entire-history https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/china-add...
- londons_explore 3y ago
  Now do the calculation looking at the cycle life of the battery, not the lifetime in years.... Turns out today's stationary batteries deliberately keep their state of charge in a narrow range in the middle (ie. 40-60% charged), which reduced storage kWh, which in turn increases cost per kWh stored, all in the name of increasing cycle life, which impacts the capital cost per kWh cycled..
  - epistasis 3y ago
    Every grid battery I have ever heard of already only reports that "reduced" amount, which is part of how they get to 5000-6000 cycles. So doing it again would be double counting that. Note just how big of a difference there is between the cell price of <$150/kWh and the installed price of >$450kWh. Some of that is labor, land, concrete slab, inverters, but a good chunk is excess kWh.
morphle 3y ago
Yes, batteries also become cheaper over time.

Why don't you try googling "lithium ion battery history prices" and find out? Top results: "lithium-ion battery prices hit historical low of $140/KWHr"

epistasis 3y ago

Batteries are already cheap. Take these rather conservative (in the sense of being worse for cheapness) numbers that NREL collected: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85332.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85332.pdf $482/kwh of battery capacity, installed to grid 15 year lifetime 85% round trip efficiency, And it costs $88/MWh to store electricity, and adding in charging from the average $40/MW, that's $135/MWh all in for battery costs in 2022-2023. Today will be cheaper, tomorrow cheaper yet. Mix in direct wind production at a 40% capacity factor, annd stored electricity in lithium ion batteries, and wind can become fully dispatchable baseload for less than $90/MWh, at today's prices. For comparison, the cost of Vogtle 3, the most recent nuclear power plant in the US, is $180/MWh. Edit: and the main impediment to plentiful solar is policy & regulations that slow it down. The technology is being deployed at massive rates [1] in the US, 33GW in 2023 compared to 22GW in 2022, and ever accelerating. (Capacity factor adjusted, that's roughly 7GW compared to average US electrify draw of ~500GW, for a single year). But the US is way behind China, which installed 217GW in 2023 [2] [1] https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/chart-the-us-installed-more-solar-in-2023-than-ever-before https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/chart-the-us-inst... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/china-added-more-solar-panels-in-2023-than-us-did-in-its-entire-history https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/china-add...

londons_explore 3y ago
Now do the calculation looking at the cycle life of the battery, not the lifetime in years.... Turns out today's stationary batteries deliberately keep their state of charge in a narrow range in the middle (ie. 40-60% charged), which reduced storage kWh, which in turn increases cost per kWh stored, all in the name of increasing cycle life, which impacts the capital cost per kWh cycled..
- epistasis 3y ago
  Every grid battery I have ever heard of already only reports that "reduced" amount, which is part of how they get to 5000-6000 cycles. So doing it again would be double counting that. Note just how big of a difference there is between the cell price of <$150/kWh and the installed price of >$450kWh. Some of that is labor, land, concrete slab, inverters, but a good chunk is excess kWh.

morphle 3y ago

Yes, batteries also become cheaper over time.