4 ms·

How would you "statistically show" a reevaluation that is in process? You obviously can't evaluate by the outcomes, because the reevaluation is still in proces

How would you "statistically show" a reevaluation that is in process? You obviously can't evaluate by the outcomes, because the reevaluation is still in process, and in this particular case outcomes in terms of power to grid take at least 3 years after you have finished evaluating and started building. And sometimes a bit longer. And of course you do have plants reaching their end of life during that time, so you might not see a net positive total for a bit. On the other hand, 22 countries just pledged to triple nuclear output by 2050 at COP28, so just a little over a month ago. That's a significant departure and includes countries that were getting out of nuclear power altogether, like Japan. It also includes all of the G7 except Germany and Italy. https://www.energy.gov/articles/cop28-countries-launch-declaration-triple-nuclear-energy-capacity-2050-recognizing-key https://www.energy.gov/articles/cop28-countries-launch-decla... Speaking of Italy, they aren't there yet, but have just made getting back into nuclear official government policy. https://www.montelnews.com/news/1498405/italian-parliament-backs-meloni-plan-to-reactivate-nuclear https://www.montelnews.com/news/1498405/italian-parliament-b... Germany, of course, remains a basket case, even though a majority of its citizens now oppose the "Atomausstieg". The UK government just announced a massive (to 4x) nuclear expansion this month (January 2024). https://www.gov.uk/government/news/biggest-expansion-of-nuclear-power-for-70-years-to-create-jobs-reduce-bills-and-strengthen-britains-energy-security https://www.gov.uk/government/news/biggest-expansion-of-nucl... Poland is getting into nuclear, having just approved construction of 24 (small) reactors at 6 locations. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/poland-approves-construction-smr-nuclear-units-six-sites-2023-12-07/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/poland... France removed its legal requirement to reduce nuclear to less than 50% last year, and just committed to building 14 new reactors (up from only 6 just 2 months ago). Unlike what some people think, France was not very pro-nuclear the last few decades, in fact nuclear was being actively sabotaged. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ePZUamAzNA4IzdR1dlkE2wtlCZjgzsbRCzfZYY3EQbs/ https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ePZUamAzNA4IzdR1dlkE2wtl... That has changed. A lot has changed since the Ukraine war revealed the dirty little secret of Germany's "Energiewende", also known nowadays as the Gazprom-Wende. Yes, China is going for renewables. That's because China goes for everything. Including more coal. Yes, they are building out renewables, but that's because they have little to none at present, so they are still at a stage where adding more renewables won't destabilize the grid. They are also massively expanding their nuclear fleet, with no fewer than 20 (twenty!) reactors currently under construction and another 70 currently being planned. That's a tripling of what they have now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China They are also building all sorts of next generation reactors. A thorium pebble-bed reactor was connected to the grid in 2023, a thorium molten salt reactor got its operating license last year and is supposedly close to completion. India is also planning (and on track) to triple their nuclear generating capacity, though not by 2050, but by 2031. https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/india-plans-to-triple-nuclear-power-generation-capacity-to-22480-mw-by-2031/106199000 https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/india... Ukraine is in talks with Rolls Royce to upgrade existing coal-fired power stations with nuclear reactors. The ones Rolls Royce is planning to build in a factory. https://www.business-live.co.uk/technology/rolls-royce-offers-help-ukraine-26588249 https://www.business-live.co.uk/technology/rolls-royce-offer... I always wondered where Rolls Royce was going to place so many nuclear reactors that producing them in factory would make sense. Old coal-powered power stations is a pretty good market, there are hundreds if not thousands of those waiting to be converted.

Krasnol 3y ago
> You obviously can't evaluate by the outcomes, because the reevaluation is still in process Things are always "in the process" or "being reevaluated" around nuclear. Meanwhile, global warming is on the way and faster here than a single nuclear reactor is constructed, even if you start building today. Meanwhile, renewables are already there, build in 1–2 years and are getting better and cheaper every year. > On the other hand, 22 countries just pledged to triple nuclear output by 2050 at COP28, so just a little over a month ago Are there any repercussions if they don't deliver, or how is this relevant? Let's take a closer look at your links there: > Speaking of Italy, they aren't there yet, but have just made getting back into nuclear official government policy. Italy doesn't have the funds for any significant nuclear project. The nuclear meme the ruling parties spread is highly popular within the right wing parties throughout Europe and, just like Poland (where the meme goes back to the time of Socialism), every serious person knows: nothing at all will come of it. > Germany, of course, remains a basket case, even though a majority of its citizens now oppose the "Atomausstieg". No they don't. There was a rush around the time the last one closed. With the biggest tabloid BILD and the opposition (which consist mainly of the party which is responsible for the shutdown) shouting useless claims to fire up people who are unhappy with the Government. Today, just like before: nobody cares about nuclear anymore and the only polls suggesting that there might be some kind of support for the cause come from Civey and are being paid by Nuklearia. A small lobby club of former nuclear engineers and their Twitter-friends from the right-wing AfD bubble. > The UK government just announced a massive (to 4x) nuclear expansion this month (January 2024). I'm sure that after the elections and with the complete mess that is HPC, there will be not a single new reactor being build in the UK. https://reneweconomy.com.au/cost-of-uks-flagship-nuclear-project-blows-out-to-more-than-a92-billion/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/cost-of-uks-flagship-nuclear-pro... > France removed its legal requirement to reduce nuclear to less than 50% last year, and just committed to building 14 new reactors (up from only 6 just 2 months ago). I wonder where the money for that might come from especially after the failure of EDF and the fact that despite subsidizing every single watt of nuclear energy by taxpayer money (tarif bleu) they now even have to rise the prices https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/france-finds-way-to-regulate-nuclear-sales-price/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/france-fin... But sure, something has to be done since their existing fleet is rotting away and they have not diversified anything. Let's hope those old reactors will hold up for another decade because we all know: France can't build faster. > Unlike what some people think, France was not very pro-nuclear the last few decades, in fact nuclear was being actively sabotaged. Yeah...no. That's bs. https://www.statista.com/statistics/750035/france-opinion-survey-nuclear-energy/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/750035/france-opinion-su... > That has changed. A lot has changed since the Ukraine war revealed the dirty little secret of Germany's "Energiewende", also known nowadays as the Gazprom-Wende. What secret is this supposed to be? Because Germany got rid of Russian gas and gas prices went down again? Or do you mean the secret that France still supports the invasion in Ukraine through their nuclear deals? https://www.lemonde.fr/en/energies/article/2023/03/12/french-nuclear-industry-maintains-links-with-russian-giant-rosatom_6019019_98.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/energies/article/2023/03/12/french... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01228-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01228-5 > Yes, China is going for renewables. That's because China goes for everything. Including more coal. Yes, they are building out renewables, but that's because they have little to none at present They expand it REALLY fast though https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-sol... Faster than anyone on this planet. Meanwhile, their nuclear expansion is negligible. If your argument of putting all of them in one basket would be right, they'd have to build much more nuclear than they do and plan to do. But just like any reasonable investor, they're not stupid. Nuclear is a waste of money. > India is also planning (and on track) to triple their nuclear generating capacity, though not by 2050, but by 2031. I wonder how well this will go in the future... https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/opinion/alexey-zhukov-the-nuclear-power-plant-has-become-a-symbol-of-growing-partnership-between-india-and-r/ https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/opinion/alexey-zhukov... Quite funny that in the nuclear bubble Rosatom is good while Gazprom is bad. > Ukraine is in talks with Rolls Royce to upgrade existing coal-fired power stations with nuclear reactors. The ones Rolls Royce is planning to build in a factory. People dare to talk about SMRs after the Nuscale debacle? And especially in Ukraine where the fate of the whole country isn't even clear? Interesting. How many of those did RR build already or is their plan to test the whole thing in Ukraine because they're used to nuclear fallouts?

Krasnol 3y ago

> You obviously can't evaluate by the outcomes, because the reevaluation is still in process Things are always "in the process" or "being reevaluated" around nuclear. Meanwhile, global warming is on the way and faster here than a single nuclear reactor is constructed, even if you start building today. Meanwhile, renewables are already there, build in 1–2 years and are getting better and cheaper every year. > On the other hand, 22 countries just pledged to triple nuclear output by 2050 at COP28, so just a little over a month ago Are there any repercussions if they don't deliver, or how is this relevant? Let's take a closer look at your links there: > Speaking of Italy, they aren't there yet, but have just made getting back into nuclear official government policy. Italy doesn't have the funds for any significant nuclear project. The nuclear meme the ruling parties spread is highly popular within the right wing parties throughout Europe and, just like Poland (where the meme goes back to the time of Socialism), every serious person knows: nothing at all will come of it. > Germany, of course, remains a basket case, even though a majority of its citizens now oppose the "Atomausstieg". No they don't. There was a rush around the time the last one closed. With the biggest tabloid BILD and the opposition (which consist mainly of the party which is responsible for the shutdown) shouting useless claims to fire up people who are unhappy with the Government. Today, just like before: nobody cares about nuclear anymore and the only polls suggesting that there might be some kind of support for the cause come from Civey and are being paid by Nuklearia. A small lobby club of former nuclear engineers and their Twitter-friends from the right-wing AfD bubble. > The UK government just announced a massive (to 4x) nuclear expansion this month (January 2024). I'm sure that after the elections and with the complete mess that is HPC, there will be not a single new reactor being build in the UK. https://reneweconomy.com.au/cost-of-uks-flagship-nuclear-project-blows-out-to-more-than-a92-billion/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/cost-of-uks-flagship-nuclear-pro... > France removed its legal requirement to reduce nuclear to less than 50% last year, and just committed to building 14 new reactors (up from only 6 just 2 months ago). I wonder where the money for that might come from especially after the failure of EDF and the fact that despite subsidizing every single watt of nuclear energy by taxpayer money (tarif bleu) they now even have to rise the prices https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/france-finds-way-to-regulate-nuclear-sales-price/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/france-fin... But sure, something has to be done since their existing fleet is rotting away and they have not diversified anything. Let's hope those old reactors will hold up for another decade because we all know: France can't build faster. > Unlike what some people think, France was not very pro-nuclear the last few decades, in fact nuclear was being actively sabotaged. Yeah...no. That's bs. https://www.statista.com/statistics/750035/france-opinion-survey-nuclear-energy/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/750035/france-opinion-su... > That has changed. A lot has changed since the Ukraine war revealed the dirty little secret of Germany's "Energiewende", also known nowadays as the Gazprom-Wende. What secret is this supposed to be? Because Germany got rid of Russian gas and gas prices went down again? Or do you mean the secret that France still supports the invasion in Ukraine through their nuclear deals? https://www.lemonde.fr/en/energies/article/2023/03/12/french-nuclear-industry-maintains-links-with-russian-giant-rosatom_6019019_98.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/energies/article/2023/03/12/french... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01228-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01228-5 > Yes, China is going for renewables. That's because China goes for everything. Including more coal. Yes, they are building out renewables, but that's because they have little to none at present They expand it REALLY fast though https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-sol... Faster than anyone on this planet. Meanwhile, their nuclear expansion is negligible. If your argument of putting all of them in one basket would be right, they'd have to build much more nuclear than they do and plan to do. But just like any reasonable investor, they're not stupid. Nuclear is a waste of money. > India is also planning (and on track) to triple their nuclear generating capacity, though not by 2050, but by 2031. I wonder how well this will go in the future... https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/opinion/alexey-zhukov-the-nuclear-power-plant-has-become-a-symbol-of-growing-partnership-between-india-and-r/ https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/opinion/alexey-zhukov... Quite funny that in the nuclear bubble Rosatom is good while Gazprom is bad. > Ukraine is in talks with Rolls Royce to upgrade existing coal-fired power stations with nuclear reactors. The ones Rolls Royce is planning to build in a factory. People dare to talk about SMRs after the Nuscale debacle? And especially in Ukraine where the fate of the whole country isn't even clear? Interesting. How many of those did RR build already or is their plan to test the whole thing in Ukraine because they're used to nuclear fallouts?