4 ms·

Unemployment rates are fake btw

patrick451 3y ago
Yup. Letting people "drop out of the workforce" is the perfect way to let you produce any number you want. Any measure other than number of people with jobs divided by US population is is suspect and likely corrupt.
- actuallyalys 3y ago
  I think this perspective is simplistic, but the U.S. government does produce basically this number (although I think they exclude children): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO. Currently it's 60.2 percent, a value higher than immediately after the major COVID layoffs or the 2008 financial crisis but lower than peaks in the 80s, 90s, or 00s. Most of this drop is because of the U.S.'s aging population. Looking at the same ratio from people between 25 and 54 shows it's 80.6 percent, about as high as ever: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060.
  - ipaddr 3y ago
    This is interesting. I think 25 to 54 is the key working age range. I'm curious if homemaker or stay at home dad is represented
    - actuallyalys 3y ago
      Yeah, economists sometimes call it "prime age." I'm not sure what you mean by "represented"? Someone who doesn't have a job in order to be a caretaker or keep up a household would count as not employed, even though those people are still doing work. (The same would apply for people without jobs and spend their time in school or volunteering.) They do ask why people aren't working in government surveys, so that information is available to analyze. I wasn't able to quickly find an overall recent figure, but there is a figure for people who are technically in the labor force but haven't looked for work in the last month: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm. And I also found an older figure: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-the-labor-force-why-arent-they-working.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-....
- throwaway5959 3y ago
  My mom and dad are retired. Should they impact the unemployment rate? They never plan on having a job ever again.
gruez 3y ago
Just because you disagree with the definition of "unemployment" (U-3) doesn't mean it's "fake".
- AndrewKemendo 3y ago
  It is because it’s dependent on people signing up to a service successfully.* What i was unemployed last year I experienced what I already had seen other friends experience: the whole unemployment system is designed to prevent you from using it and if you work remotely it’s even harder as you have to file twice and maybe they accept you. * incorrect i was working on bad information
  - gruez 3y ago
    > It is because it’s dependent on people signing up to a service successfully. That's false. From the BLS: >Classification as unemployed in no way depends upon a person's eligibility for, or receipt of, unemployment insurance benefits. >There is no requirement or question relating to unemployment insurance benefits in the monthly Current Population Survey. https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#unemployed https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#unemployed
    - AndrewKemendo 3y ago
      Fair. I’ll update my info
- ipaddr 3y ago
  The meaning of the word and the ever changing definition are two different things causing the idea that they are fake and real. By the definition they are correct. The definition is fake as in the formula is changed to suit political goals and doesn't reflect what an unemployed person is. If a period of time passes where you still can't find a job you get excluded. You are no longer unemployed. Tell that to your parents/wife. That alone makes the entire definition more than suspect. Onr might even say fake.
  - 3y ago

Yup. Letting people "drop out of the workforce" is the perfect way to let you produce any number you want. Any measure other than number of people with jobs divided by US population is is suspect and likely corrupt.

actuallyalys 3y ago
I think this perspective is simplistic, but the U.S. government does produce basically this number (although I think they exclude children): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO. Currently it's 60.2 percent, a value higher than immediately after the major COVID layoffs or the 2008 financial crisis but lower than peaks in the 80s, 90s, or 00s. Most of this drop is because of the U.S.'s aging population. Looking at the same ratio from people between 25 and 54 shows it's 80.6 percent, about as high as ever: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060.
- ipaddr 3y ago
  This is interesting. I think 25 to 54 is the key working age range. I'm curious if homemaker or stay at home dad is represented
  - actuallyalys 3y ago
    Yeah, economists sometimes call it "prime age." I'm not sure what you mean by "represented"? Someone who doesn't have a job in order to be a caretaker or keep up a household would count as not employed, even though those people are still doing work. (The same would apply for people without jobs and spend their time in school or volunteering.) They do ask why people aren't working in government surveys, so that information is available to analyze. I wasn't able to quickly find an overall recent figure, but there is a figure for people who are technically in the labor force but haven't looked for work in the last month: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm. And I also found an older figure: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-the-labor-force-why-arent-they-working.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-....
throwaway5959 3y ago
My mom and dad are retired. Should they impact the unemployment rate? They never plan on having a job ever again.

gruez 3y ago

Just because you disagree with the definition of "unemployment" (U-3) doesn't mean it's "fake".

AndrewKemendo 3y ago
It is because it’s dependent on people signing up to a service successfully.* What i was unemployed last year I experienced what I already had seen other friends experience: the whole unemployment system is designed to prevent you from using it and if you work remotely it’s even harder as you have to file twice and maybe they accept you. * incorrect i was working on bad information
- gruez 3y ago
  > It is because it’s dependent on people signing up to a service successfully. That's false. From the BLS: >Classification as unemployed in no way depends upon a person's eligibility for, or receipt of, unemployment insurance benefits. >There is no requirement or question relating to unemployment insurance benefits in the monthly Current Population Survey. https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#unemployed https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#unemployed
  - AndrewKemendo 3y ago
    Fair. I’ll update my info
ipaddr 3y ago
The meaning of the word and the ever changing definition are two different things causing the idea that they are fake and real. By the definition they are correct. The definition is fake as in the formula is changed to suit political goals and doesn't reflect what an unemployed person is. If a period of time passes where you still can't find a job you get excluded. You are no longer unemployed. Tell that to your parents/wife. That alone makes the entire definition more than suspect. Onr might even say fake.
- 3y ago