This isn't quite accurate. The population projection graphs you see [1] are based on UN numbers which have the Japanese fertility rate skyrocketing [2] relative

This isn't quite accurate. The population projection graphs you see [1] are based on UN numbers which have the Japanese fertility rate skyrocketing [2] relative to past trends, presumably based on the assumption of some sort of successful social policy. That's why the collapse starts to smooth out in the graph, which is not what you see from a constant rate. Fertility rates, at a constant level, are brutally exponential systems which do not 'slow down'. As for predictions, I remember about 10 years ago making fun of somebody who wanted to get a class C (commercial trucking) license. It seemed like the most idiotic idea imaginable at the time. Self driving vehicles had already been proven viable and surely it was imminent that nobody would be driving themselves around, let alone truckers where companies would love to ditch those relatively hefty labor fees. Relevant link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function --- [1] - https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/population-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/population-g... [2] - https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/fertility-ra...