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Yes and: > The replacement cycle, given today’s technology, is approximately three decades. Every ICE vehical sold today can be expected to be in use for deca
by specialist 3y ago
Yes and:
> The replacement cycle, given today’s technology, is approximately three decades.
Every ICE vehical sold today can be expected to be in use for decades to come. And there's something like 1.2 billion passenger cars worldwide.
I forget the details of the analysis, but the gist is with our current policies, worldwide personal transportation is unlikely to hit our 2050 net-zero targets.
IIRC, I gleened this observation from Horace Dediu's Asymco podcast. (Or Micromobility?) Dediu has been promoting micromobility (scooters, e-bikes, cargo bikes, etc) for quite a while now (decade?), to address this challenge.
Of course, Dediu and others also advocate public transportation, densification, etc. to further reduce miles traveled.