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You mean Youth Services? https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/12/the-at-risk-youth-industry/302645/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2
by candiodari 3y ago
You mean Youth Services?
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/12/the-at-risk-youth-industry/302645/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/12/the-at-...
Here's the problem with that. A few years ago the FBI announced that they had liberated 42 children from sex trafficking. What they neglected to mention: "the professionals who look after children" had lost ALL 42 children in 4 days.
Which of course means that in about 4 days every last of those children decided anything was better than "the professionals who look after children", and had run away. The idiots among those children who ran away to their home were ... well, idiots (for a child, that's a crime, ironically called "depriving a child of parental rights", yes, running away FROM youth services TO parents is called that). In other words they got arrested, and put in juvenile detention.
(this is a crime also somewhat famous because the police, on a regular basis, refuses orders from a judge to arrest)
The real change is elsewhere: in 1970, having child allowance for 3 children was essentially a living wage. In 1980s, it was over 5. Today ... 15? We effectively had professionals who look after children (almost exclusively mothers), paid but not employed by the state. Today we seem to have lots of professionals who don't seem to do half of what those mothers do, but spend more on them. We exchanged child allowance for a huge expansion of government. It didn't work, to put it mildly.
Of course, these days such a policy would tilt greatly towards immigrants, and it's probably a non-starter especially with Trump's numbers where they sadly are.
And the joke is: look at the population pyramid. Even if we decided to reinstitute that policy and it actually got fertility back up to 3 ... it's too late. I don't know how we're going to keep population, even in the US, at the level it currently is. In Europe ... "will the last person please turn out the lights?". Ironically China is actually the country arguably worst off. Hell, in 20 years we'll need a version of youth services that actually breeds children or something.
Of course, nobody is arguing that this needs to start happening, well, 20 years ago. "Too many people" you hear everywhere. But look at the numbers: there's WAY too few people.
- robocat 3y ago> fertility back up to 3 ... it's too late And using immigration to fix the population pyramid in the USA would probably not work due to housing and politics? New Zealand fixes its birth rate imbalance somewhat by immigration. About 30% of our population was born in another country (i.e our population is 50% higher than it would be without immigrants). Note that NZ is managing to make more houses "Auckland increased housing supply by 4% from 2016 to 2021"[1]. Interestingly increases in house supply don't decrease prices (presumably house demand is still outstripping house supply in New Zealand, unlike some other aging population countries with declining house prices in locations). Auckland is highly unaffordable (about as relatively unaffordable as San Francisco: wages to prices). Immigration drives house prices up, simplistically +10% immigrants doubles or triples house prices: "We suspect these two features largely underpin Coleman and Landon-Lane's (2007) and McDonald's (2013)| macro estimates that a 1 percent population increase from migration is associated with about a 10 percent increase in house prices nationally"[2]. [1] https://worksinprogress.co/issue/upzoning-new-zealand/ https://worksinprogress.co/issue/upzoning-new-zealand/ [2] https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/19_14.pdf https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/19_14.pdf