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Nope. It's all a lie. Here's why: The current US Government has a massive program that is creating a bubble in construction (Build Back Better), this generates

Nope. It's all a lie. Here's why: The current US Government has a massive program that is creating a bubble in construction (Build Back Better), this generates a lot of jobs, but despite the program lasting a long period, those jobs don't stay and aren't jobs created entirely by free market and the private sector. Those jobs will go away, won't last and will likely have a reverse impact once we're at the other side of the construction cycle. If you have a look at the 12 months data, you'll see construction along with government has been a big hire https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-b... Government-led hiring changes from government to government, it generates bad bubbles and is bad. If you look at the data above, you'll see that we're actually doing pretty badly, if it wasn't for the increased demand by that package. Not to mention that those government packages are fueled by DEBT. The US is running a big deficit and this will "fake unemployment" will be paid by your kids.

ramesh31 3y ago
>Those jobs will go away, won't last and will likely have a reverse impact once we're at the other side of the construction cycle. All construction is cyclical. There's no such thing as a "permanent" construction job. Meanwhile, those workers will have jobs, health insurance, drive the economy, buy homes, and build wealth.
- c0pium 3y ago
  Not to mention that before this there was a huge shortage of skilled construction workers in America which has had upward pressure on housing prices. What if those people cycle out of BBB jobs in a few years and into residential construction?
  - thiago_fm 3y ago
    Some will, others will become alcoholics, or already were and will no longer seek employment. Not to mention most construction people ideally don't stay in construction. It's really hard and sorta inhumane to do this when you are 50+ with problems all over your body. For many, unemployment and alcohol abuse looks like a better alternative. America doesn't want to talk or hear about this, as everybody want to buy their beautiful huge homes on a suburb, no matter how this is costly in the health and life of others
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > hard and sorta inhumane to do this when you are 50+ My painter in West Wyoming is in this age bracket. He is currently on a ski trip in Hokkaido. He makes good money and is in great health, certainly compared to most office workers I know.
      - hotpotamus 3y ago
        My cousin's baby-daddy was a painter, but he couldn't make enough money to pay child support doing that so he does some sort of overhead-door service thing now. He was pretty thrilled to get health insurance as well since he'd never had a job that provided that before.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > he couldn't make enough money to pay child support doing that That’s my point. These aren’t traditionally high-paying jobs. The fact that they are right now says something.
        hotpotamus 3y ago
        What data do you have that shows that painters are currently highly paid? It's entry-level construction work; AKA a shit job (maybe just a bit better than roofing), so I'm skeptical.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > It's entry-level construction work; AKA a shit job This was historically true for construction [1]. Yet their wages are on a smooth curve upwards [2]. The entire cohort of construction workers is currently seeing high real wages, and their data almost completely hide Covid. I’d also argue that commodity and skilled painting are different. The 50-year old commodity painter who honed his craft can charge a premium because he can smooth my drywall and put on a finish someone with zero training cannot. [1] https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/the-public-cost-of-low-wage-jobs-in-the-us-construction-industry/ https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/the-public-cost-of-low-wage... [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2000000003 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2000000003
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> If you have a look at the 12 months data, you'll see construction along with government has been a big hire Dwarfed by private education, health and leisure/hospitality. These are free-market, private sector jobs. Also, drilling into the government hiring one finds most of it is local and state [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-b...
- thiago_fm 3y ago
  Those sectors are always hiring and understaffed. Most jobs there also aren't either jobs people are excited about nor have good pay. It's like saying hiring is going great because McDonalds got everybody to flip burgers.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > Those sectors are always hiring and understaffed Sorry, where are you getting this? Leisure and hospitality are notoriously cyclical. > jobs there also aren't either jobs people are excited about nor have good pay Real wages are higher than any time before Q4 2019 or since Q4 2021.
    - thiago_fm 3y ago
      I meant for the other sectors. You've picked one that didn't fit what I said to "prove" I am wrong. About wages being higher: are you taking inflation into account? Where are those figures? Even if you took inflation into account, the US is so big and inequality is so huge there that inflation country numb reis completely uneven and pointless.
      - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > meant for the other sectors. You've picked one that didn't fit what I said to "prove" I am wrong I picked the second-largest hiring category since the largest one, private education and healthcare, is less generous to your argument: it’s filled with high-paying, rewarding jobs. > About wages being higher: are you taking inflation into account? Yes [1]. > the US is so big and inequality is so huge there that inflation country numb reis completely uneven and pointless Varied, yes. Even given the variance, it’s difficult to find large cohorts who don’t have a higher real wage today than any time other than Q4 2019 to Q4 2021 (stimulus). That doesn’t mean life doesn’t suck for a lot of people, just that it’s better for most and far better for many. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
troyvit 3y ago
If we're talking qualitatively about bubbles, I'll take government-led building programs that help lower real estate prices and help build trades over hilarious tech bubbles that all rely on the same memes (Quantum! AI! Selling user data!) and then burst, leaving a bunch of people with super mad Monday.com skillz out of work.
allemagne 3y ago
I recommend people go and check the 12 month data in the link for themselves (the chart lets you click into categories and drill down into subcategories) and see if this narrative that good-looking job numbers are caused by a "bubble in construction created by the federal government" makes any sense. For one thing, I'd be interested to know how this artificial construction bubble causes local governments and state governments to coordinate so well with the federal government in hiring so much in education. For another thing, I'm wondering where construction "should" be absent this bubble and how it squares with what we already know about the demand for housing and electricity. Finally, take a look at all the non-government, non-construction activity and tell me where the bubble is.

ramesh31 3y ago

>Those jobs will go away, won't last and will likely have a reverse impact once we're at the other side of the construction cycle. All construction is cyclical. There's no such thing as a "permanent" construction job. Meanwhile, those workers will have jobs, health insurance, drive the economy, buy homes, and build wealth.

c0pium 3y ago
Not to mention that before this there was a huge shortage of skilled construction workers in America which has had upward pressure on housing prices. What if those people cycle out of BBB jobs in a few years and into residential construction?
- thiago_fm 3y ago
  Some will, others will become alcoholics, or already were and will no longer seek employment. Not to mention most construction people ideally don't stay in construction. It's really hard and sorta inhumane to do this when you are 50+ with problems all over your body. For many, unemployment and alcohol abuse looks like a better alternative. America doesn't want to talk or hear about this, as everybody want to buy their beautiful huge homes on a suburb, no matter how this is costly in the health and life of others
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > hard and sorta inhumane to do this when you are 50+ My painter in West Wyoming is in this age bracket. He is currently on a ski trip in Hokkaido. He makes good money and is in great health, certainly compared to most office workers I know.
    - hotpotamus 3y ago
      My cousin's baby-daddy was a painter, but he couldn't make enough money to pay child support doing that so he does some sort of overhead-door service thing now. He was pretty thrilled to get health insurance as well since he'd never had a job that provided that before.
      - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > he couldn't make enough money to pay child support doing that That’s my point. These aren’t traditionally high-paying jobs. The fact that they are right now says something.
        hotpotamus 3y ago
        What data do you have that shows that painters are currently highly paid? It's entry-level construction work; AKA a shit job (maybe just a bit better than roofing), so I'm skeptical.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > It's entry-level construction work; AKA a shit job This was historically true for construction [1]. Yet their wages are on a smooth curve upwards [2]. The entire cohort of construction workers is currently seeing high real wages, and their data almost completely hide Covid. I’d also argue that commodity and skilled painting are different. The 50-year old commodity painter who honed his craft can charge a premium because he can smooth my drywall and put on a finish someone with zero training cannot. [1] https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/the-public-cost-of-low-wage-jobs-in-the-us-construction-industry/ https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/the-public-cost-of-low-wage... [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2000000003 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2000000003

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> If you have a look at the 12 months data, you'll see construction along with government has been a big hire Dwarfed by private education, health and leisure/hospitality. These are free-market, private sector jobs. Also, drilling into the government hiring one finds most of it is local and state [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-b...

thiago_fm 3y ago
Those sectors are always hiring and understaffed. Most jobs there also aren't either jobs people are excited about nor have good pay. It's like saying hiring is going great because McDonalds got everybody to flip burgers.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > Those sectors are always hiring and understaffed Sorry, where are you getting this? Leisure and hospitality are notoriously cyclical. > jobs there also aren't either jobs people are excited about nor have good pay Real wages are higher than any time before Q4 2019 or since Q4 2021.
  - thiago_fm 3y ago
    I meant for the other sectors. You've picked one that didn't fit what I said to "prove" I am wrong. About wages being higher: are you taking inflation into account? Where are those figures? Even if you took inflation into account, the US is so big and inequality is so huge there that inflation country numb reis completely uneven and pointless.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > meant for the other sectors. You've picked one that didn't fit what I said to "prove" I am wrong I picked the second-largest hiring category since the largest one, private education and healthcare, is less generous to your argument: it’s filled with high-paying, rewarding jobs. > About wages being higher: are you taking inflation into account? Yes [1]. > the US is so big and inequality is so huge there that inflation country numb reis completely uneven and pointless Varied, yes. Even given the variance, it’s difficult to find large cohorts who don’t have a higher real wage today than any time other than Q4 2019 to Q4 2021 (stimulus). That doesn’t mean life doesn’t suck for a lot of people, just that it’s better for most and far better for many. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

troyvit 3y ago

If we're talking qualitatively about bubbles, I'll take government-led building programs that help lower real estate prices and help build trades over hilarious tech bubbles that all rely on the same memes (Quantum! AI! Selling user data!) and then burst, leaving a bunch of people with super mad Monday.com skillz out of work.

allemagne 3y ago

I recommend people go and check the 12 month data in the link for themselves (the chart lets you click into categories and drill down into subcategories) and see if this narrative that good-looking job numbers are caused by a "bubble in construction created by the federal government" makes any sense. For one thing, I'd be interested to know how this artificial construction bubble causes local governments and state governments to coordinate so well with the federal government in hiring so much in education. For another thing, I'm wondering where construction "should" be absent this bubble and how it squares with what we already know about the demand for housing and electricity. Finally, take a look at all the non-government, non-construction activity and tell me where the bubble is.