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> Satya Nadella at Davos in January 2024 said; “ ...inflation adjusted, there is no economic growth in the world, I would say and that's a pretty disappointing

> Satya Nadella at Davos in January 2024 said; “ ...inflation adjusted, there is no economic growth in the world, I would say and that's a pretty disappointing state. In fact, the developed world may have negative economic growth...PCs were the last time, when actual, economic growth came about, right? So, the last time it showed up in productivity stats were when PCs became ubiquitous.” It feels good to hear someone up high say the quiet part I’ve suspected may be true out loud.

tonyedgecombe 3y ago
I don't understand that quote, isn't GDP growth stated with an adjustment for inflation.
tomoyoirl 3y ago
It might be that PCs were the last of the huge productivity boosts… but saying there’s been “negative economic growth” since the advent of the PC or thereabouts is a pretty fringe take. It would necessarily imply basically every serious attempt at measuring economies, and valuing the activities taking place therein against inflation, is fundamentally, terribly wrong, by absolutely massive amounts. Now, those are hard tasks and there are many opportunities for flaws and biases, but many people around the world have devoted serious efforts to understanding and correcting for them, and the consensus is very much Not That.
TheOtherHobbes 3y ago
The real cult is the one where "productivity" is considered a measurable and worthwhile goal. The official definitions make no sense. "The ratio between volume of inputs and outputs." What does that even mean? More stuff? More clicks? More eyeballs? More sales? More disposable income? More wealth disparity? (That last one being the real meaning, IMO.) The subtext seems to be that OP believes CEOs are visionaries and he'll repeat whatever they say uncritically. Which is a good example of a cargo cult attitude. It turns out Nadella and the writer are dead wrong, even if you use the official economic definitions. The writer didn't bother to check this. He believed a simplistic narrative that appealed to his preconceptions without bothering to check the ground truth. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Illustration-on-Real-GDP-Growth-Source-http-wwwimforg_fig1_348433527 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Illustration-on-Real-GDP...
- dpflan 3y ago
  Indeed, there was also for one a pandemic (exogenous shock) which most certainly changes ideas of productivity and measuring economies. I am not aware of economists that are using more advanced AI in their analysis -- does anyone know of cutting-edge economists who are using much more modern tools for inspecting economies?
- inflationnation 3y ago
  The real cult is the one where "productivity" is considered a measurable and worthwhile goal. How could you *possibly say this !?! It is literally the definition of not having to break ones back to feed their family! The problem is, we have allowed our money supply to become manipulated so that inflation can capture the productivity increases to those controlling the money supply instead of to those producing the output. I post this wherever I see this argument, as someone else has done the work to CLEARLY show the data that shows where the output goes: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
inflationnation 3y ago
Well, it is easy to see that is an incorrect statement. GDP and wages can both easily be adjusted for inflation. We can then measure and see that with inflation, while GDP continued to grow in real terms, all median worker wage increases were offset by inflation. https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ What does this mean? It means that in 1971, creating a purely FIAT currency with unrestricted ability to devalue it, gave those in charge the ability to move all productivity gains from the wage earner to the capital owner. And as the data points out, at no point has there been even a smidgen of release of the pressure on the wage earners throat to allow them at those productivity gains. Any income gain a "median" worker can ever hope to achieve is more and more exclusively tied to not earning that income via a wage. This basically defines where our housing and other speculation bubbles are coming from, and shows that people fundamentally know this and are trying to escape the rat race of being employees if they ever hope to build wealth.

tonyedgecombe 3y ago

I don't understand that quote, isn't GDP growth stated with an adjustment for inflation.

tomoyoirl 3y ago

It might be that PCs were the last of the huge productivity boosts… but saying there’s been “negative economic growth” since the advent of the PC or thereabouts is a pretty fringe take. It would necessarily imply basically every serious attempt at measuring economies, and valuing the activities taking place therein against inflation, is fundamentally, terribly wrong, by absolutely massive amounts. Now, those are hard tasks and there are many opportunities for flaws and biases, but many people around the world have devoted serious efforts to understanding and correcting for them, and the consensus is very much Not That.

TheOtherHobbes 3y ago

The real cult is the one where "productivity" is considered a measurable and worthwhile goal. The official definitions make no sense. "The ratio between volume of inputs and outputs." What does that even mean? More stuff? More clicks? More eyeballs? More sales? More disposable income? More wealth disparity? (That last one being the real meaning, IMO.) The subtext seems to be that OP believes CEOs are visionaries and he'll repeat whatever they say uncritically. Which is a good example of a cargo cult attitude. It turns out Nadella and the writer are dead wrong, even if you use the official economic definitions. The writer didn't bother to check this. He believed a simplistic narrative that appealed to his preconceptions without bothering to check the ground truth. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Illustration-on-Real-GDP-Growth-Source-http-wwwimforg_fig1_348433527 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Illustration-on-Real-GDP...

dpflan 3y ago
Indeed, there was also for one a pandemic (exogenous shock) which most certainly changes ideas of productivity and measuring economies. I am not aware of economists that are using more advanced AI in their analysis -- does anyone know of cutting-edge economists who are using much more modern tools for inspecting economies?
inflationnation 3y ago
The real cult is the one where "productivity" is considered a measurable and worthwhile goal. How could you *possibly say this !?! It is literally the definition of not having to break ones back to feed their family! The problem is, we have allowed our money supply to become manipulated so that inflation can capture the productivity increases to those controlling the money supply instead of to those producing the output. I post this wherever I see this argument, as someone else has done the work to CLEARLY show the data that shows where the output goes: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

inflationnation 3y ago

Well, it is easy to see that is an incorrect statement. GDP and wages can both easily be adjusted for inflation. We can then measure and see that with inflation, while GDP continued to grow in real terms, all median worker wage increases were offset by inflation. https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ What does this mean? It means that in 1971, creating a purely FIAT currency with unrestricted ability to devalue it, gave those in charge the ability to move all productivity gains from the wage earner to the capital owner. And as the data points out, at no point has there been even a smidgen of release of the pressure on the wage earners throat to allow them at those productivity gains. Any income gain a "median" worker can ever hope to achieve is more and more exclusively tied to not earning that income via a wage. This basically defines where our housing and other speculation bubbles are coming from, and shows that people fundamentally know this and are trying to escape the rat race of being employees if they ever hope to build wealth.