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Inflation has been falling for a while. It's down to 3.4% -- higher than the 2% target, but well below the peak. The Fed is even considering cutting interest ra

Inflation has been falling for a while. It's down to 3.4% -- higher than the 2% target, but well below the peak. The Fed is even considering cutting interest rates, which says that they think that inflation is under control. The recent bout of inflation is less about monetary policy than about the supply side, especially things like COVID and Ukraine causing supply disruptions. Those things have levelled out and begun to decrease.

no_wizard 3y ago
Housing costs haven't dropped enough IMO to declare a win. I think its become clear that its a government problem, because if it was just a market problem, supply / demand would have leveled out by now.
- SkyPuncher 3y ago
  Why would the market have leveled out by now? It takes years to build any substantial housing.
- ethanbond 3y ago
  Why would it have leveled out? Just article of faith about The Market? Go talk to a builder. Land is ridiculously expensive due to speculation and labor is impossible to find due to it being a generally shitty job.
- runako 3y ago
  > Housing costs haven't dropped enough IMO to declare a win. This is a fundamental misunderstanding about inflation. If inflation goes to 0%, housing costs will stay exactly where they are now. You are looking for a deflation in housing costs, where inflation is < 0%. We had that in 2008 and it caused...collateral damage. The only real way to lower housing prices is to build a lot more housing. So yes, it's a government problem in that we don't let private actors build housing to meet the market's demand.
- sgerenser 3y ago
  It’s a supply and demand problem, but it’ll take years to play out. Too many people are locked into 30-year mortgages with 26-28 years left at 2-3% interest. They’ll basically never sell (barring a major issue like having to move for a job after layoff or a divorce). So the supply of housing is much lower than normal all across the country. In some areas new construction can pick up some of that slack, but new construction is just getting into swing after a huge drop early in the pandemic.
gottorf 3y ago
> The recent bout of inflation is less about monetary policy than about the supply side The fiscal side[0] is probably more to blame than the supply-chain restrictions. Aggregate demand was kept turbocharged since Covid through deficit spending. And given that the CPI is still 19.1% higher as of last reading compared to pre-pandemic times, whether or not the rate of change is falling, people are still rightly feeling squeezed. [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD
itsoktocry 3y ago
>The Fed is even considering cutting interest rates What does this even mean, practically speaking? Their entire purpose is to always be considering lowering, maintaining or raising rates.
iamtheworstdev 3y ago
The fed is considering dropping interest rates because the commercial real estate market is absolutely effed if they don't and they "need" to protect banks and the wealthy. WSJ article on the pending "Doom Loop" https://archive.is/MOzr9 https://archive.is/MOzr9

no_wizard 3y ago

Housing costs haven't dropped enough IMO to declare a win. I think its become clear that its a government problem, because if it was just a market problem, supply / demand would have leveled out by now.

SkyPuncher 3y ago
Why would the market have leveled out by now? It takes years to build any substantial housing.
ethanbond 3y ago
Why would it have leveled out? Just article of faith about The Market? Go talk to a builder. Land is ridiculously expensive due to speculation and labor is impossible to find due to it being a generally shitty job.
runako 3y ago
> Housing costs haven't dropped enough IMO to declare a win. This is a fundamental misunderstanding about inflation. If inflation goes to 0%, housing costs will stay exactly where they are now. You are looking for a deflation in housing costs, where inflation is < 0%. We had that in 2008 and it caused...collateral damage. The only real way to lower housing prices is to build a lot more housing. So yes, it's a government problem in that we don't let private actors build housing to meet the market's demand.
sgerenser 3y ago
It’s a supply and demand problem, but it’ll take years to play out. Too many people are locked into 30-year mortgages with 26-28 years left at 2-3% interest. They’ll basically never sell (barring a major issue like having to move for a job after layoff or a divorce). So the supply of housing is much lower than normal all across the country. In some areas new construction can pick up some of that slack, but new construction is just getting into swing after a huge drop early in the pandemic.

gottorf 3y ago

> The recent bout of inflation is less about monetary policy than about the supply side The fiscal side[0] is probably more to blame than the supply-chain restrictions. Aggregate demand was kept turbocharged since Covid through deficit spending. And given that the CPI is still 19.1% higher as of last reading compared to pre-pandemic times, whether or not the rate of change is falling, people are still rightly feeling squeezed. [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD

itsoktocry 3y ago

>The Fed is even considering cutting interest rates What does this even mean, practically speaking? Their entire purpose is to always be considering lowering, maintaining or raising rates.

iamtheworstdev 3y ago

The fed is considering dropping interest rates because the commercial real estate market is absolutely effed if they don't and they "need" to protect banks and the wealthy. WSJ article on the pending "Doom Loop" https://archive.is/MOzr9 https://archive.is/MOzr9