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https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1752709126382289183?s=20 https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1752709126382289183?s=20 Let me summarize how Israel's war is going:

https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1752709126382289183?s=20 https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1752709126382289183?s=20 Let me summarize how Israel's war is going: it's way behind on schedule in taking control of the Strip; Arab normalization has been stopped in its tracks and is now made conditional on progress on a two-state solution that Israel categorically rejects; it's running out of both manpower and ammunition as the war drags on and reservists have to be recalled; the US, on which it depends for virtually everything from supplies to political cover, is getting attacked everywhere in the region and may be drawn into a war with Iran; it's being accused of genocide and the EU, its largest trading partner, is coming up with a hare-brained plan to restart the peace process that will never go anywhere but will further damage Israel's reputation when it rejects it; it still looks as though Israel may eventually get into a far larger and more difficult war against Hezbollah in the North, which certainly wouldn't help with its manpower and ammunition problem; and now Egypt, by far the country whose stability is the most important for Israel's security, is on the verge of economic collapse in part because, as a result of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (which are themselves a consequence of Israel's war), traffic through Suez has dropped precipitously and the country has lost its main source of hard currency. But if you listen to Israeli right-wingers, they will assure you that victory, whatever that means exactly, is just around the corner! Indeed, one can only admire the strategic genius of the Israeli government for bringing about such a brilliant situation, which reminds me of the aftermath of Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982, another magnificent victory.

wslh 3y ago
Your summary is based on a tweet that lacks references and requires in-depth discussion. Regarding the "two-state solution", which is central to this issue: if a genuine two-state solution is proposed and the Palestinians agree to it, it is highly improbable that it won't progress. The vast majority of Israelis accept it, and it is supported by more than a vast majority of Jews worldwide. There is no scenario in which Israeli extremists could overturn this solution. Reference: Jewish history.
weatherlite 3y ago
I don't disagree with everything here but some statements deserve scrutiny: > it's way behind on schedule in taking control of the Strip Whose schedule ? Many, including in the U.S, didn't think Israel was even capable of reaching the point it has (which is partial or complete control of the entire strip besides Rafah in the South and the dismantling of big parts of Hamas' fighting power). We've been reading over and over (by both Israeli and American analysts) that Israel would suffer thousands of dead soldiers and still wouldn't be able to do it , so far this is proving to be false. Officials in Israel said it would take a long time right from the start. > it's running out of both manpower and ammunition as the war drags on and reservists have to be recalled I don't really this is happening yet, any numbers to back it up ? War with Iran aside, in the current situation it looks like Israel can continue for months on end. The economy so far has been surprisingly resilient, mandatory conscription is going to be brought back to 3 years from 2 years 8 months. Solutions will be found - especially considering Gaza now doesn't require a full invasion but smaller counter terror campaigns. > and now Egypt, by far the country whose stability is the most important for Israel's security, is on the verge of economic collapse This seems like hyperbole to me. Also, the stability of Egypt is important not just for Israel but for basically everyone in the region - I don't think the U.S will let Egypt fail so quickly. > Indeed, one can only admire the strategic genius of the Israeli government for bringing about such a brilliant situation Israel never wanted this war. It tried to reach a state of non War with Hamas for years - and failed. Now that Israel is fighting Hamas hard, its getting blamed for all the years it tried not to fight Hamas and also getting blamed for fighting Hamas (so damn if you do, damn if you don't).
- seo-speedwagon 3y ago
  > so damn if you do, damn if you don't Damn, sounds tough being a settler-colonist. Maybe if they stopped doing that people wouldn’t be so mad at them??
  - weatherlite 3y ago
    [flagged]
myth_drannon 3y ago
I remember before the ground incursion everyone was warning about the trap Hamas set for IDF, with thousands of soldiers KIA. That it will take years for the army to take over Gaza city, the heavily fortified Hamass stronghold, etc... Well after two months of fighting with very minimal losses, soldiers could enjoy a nice coffee with sunset on the Gaza beach and that beautiful city (used to be). And now the brigade that was there left home. The economy will recover, they had worse. Red Sea conflict with Houthis created a new economic opportunity with a land route over Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Haifa port, this is an amazing thing that would have been crazy just 5 years ago. Most importantly Arab nations still want to continue normalization with Israel and just did minimal lip service to support Palestinians. Netanyahu will be out and that will be a huge boost to the country in every aspect. Immigration from UK and US jumped 300%, and highly educated professionals are moving to Israel. The outlook is very optimistic IMHO.
- smoothjazz 3y ago
  This isn't accurate. Israel doesn't control Gaza and in fact has lost control areas that it once had under control. Hamas continues to launch rockets from northern Gaza and multiple battalions have had to be withdrawn, including the elite Golani brigade. Israel is also under major pressure in the north with over 100k settlers evacuated and constant losses from Hezbollah. That's not even counting the political battles Israel has lost and will continue to lose.
  - myth_drannon 3y ago
    [flagged]
tguvot 3y ago
> Arab normalization has been stopped in its tracks and is now made conditional on progress on a two-state solution that Israel categorically rejects; not anymore: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushes-us-defence-pact-ahead-presidential-election-2024-02-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushe...

wslh 3y ago

Your summary is based on a tweet that lacks references and requires in-depth discussion. Regarding the "two-state solution", which is central to this issue: if a genuine two-state solution is proposed and the Palestinians agree to it, it is highly improbable that it won't progress. The vast majority of Israelis accept it, and it is supported by more than a vast majority of Jews worldwide. There is no scenario in which Israeli extremists could overturn this solution. Reference: Jewish history.

weatherlite 3y ago

I don't disagree with everything here but some statements deserve scrutiny: > it's way behind on schedule in taking control of the Strip Whose schedule ? Many, including in the U.S, didn't think Israel was even capable of reaching the point it has (which is partial or complete control of the entire strip besides Rafah in the South and the dismantling of big parts of Hamas' fighting power). We've been reading over and over (by both Israeli and American analysts) that Israel would suffer thousands of dead soldiers and still wouldn't be able to do it , so far this is proving to be false. Officials in Israel said it would take a long time right from the start. > it's running out of both manpower and ammunition as the war drags on and reservists have to be recalled I don't really this is happening yet, any numbers to back it up ? War with Iran aside, in the current situation it looks like Israel can continue for months on end. The economy so far has been surprisingly resilient, mandatory conscription is going to be brought back to 3 years from 2 years 8 months. Solutions will be found - especially considering Gaza now doesn't require a full invasion but smaller counter terror campaigns. > and now Egypt, by far the country whose stability is the most important for Israel's security, is on the verge of economic collapse This seems like hyperbole to me. Also, the stability of Egypt is important not just for Israel but for basically everyone in the region - I don't think the U.S will let Egypt fail so quickly. > Indeed, one can only admire the strategic genius of the Israeli government for bringing about such a brilliant situation Israel never wanted this war. It tried to reach a state of non War with Hamas for years - and failed. Now that Israel is fighting Hamas hard, its getting blamed for all the years it tried not to fight Hamas and also getting blamed for fighting Hamas (so damn if you do, damn if you don't).

seo-speedwagon 3y ago
> so damn if you do, damn if you don't Damn, sounds tough being a settler-colonist. Maybe if they stopped doing that people wouldn’t be so mad at them??
- weatherlite 3y ago
  [flagged]

myth_drannon 3y ago

I remember before the ground incursion everyone was warning about the trap Hamas set for IDF, with thousands of soldiers KIA. That it will take years for the army to take over Gaza city, the heavily fortified Hamass stronghold, etc... Well after two months of fighting with very minimal losses, soldiers could enjoy a nice coffee with sunset on the Gaza beach and that beautiful city (used to be). And now the brigade that was there left home. The economy will recover, they had worse. Red Sea conflict with Houthis created a new economic opportunity with a land route over Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Haifa port, this is an amazing thing that would have been crazy just 5 years ago. Most importantly Arab nations still want to continue normalization with Israel and just did minimal lip service to support Palestinians. Netanyahu will be out and that will be a huge boost to the country in every aspect. Immigration from UK and US jumped 300%, and highly educated professionals are moving to Israel. The outlook is very optimistic IMHO.

smoothjazz 3y ago
This isn't accurate. Israel doesn't control Gaza and in fact has lost control areas that it once had under control. Hamas continues to launch rockets from northern Gaza and multiple battalions have had to be withdrawn, including the elite Golani brigade. Israel is also under major pressure in the north with over 100k settlers evacuated and constant losses from Hezbollah. That's not even counting the political battles Israel has lost and will continue to lose.
- myth_drannon 3y ago
  [flagged]

tguvot 3y ago

> Arab normalization has been stopped in its tracks and is now made conditional on progress on a two-state solution that Israel categorically rejects; not anymore: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushes-us-defence-pact-ahead-presidential-election-2024-02-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushe...