No you haven’t :) Let’s ignore RRG because it becomes a 50-50 anyway. RRR has a 100% chance of yielding Red. But is 3X less likely than RGG. RGG has a 33% ch

No you haven’t :) Let’s ignore RRG because it becomes a 50-50 anyway. RRR has a 100% chance of yielding Red. But is 3X less likely than RGG. RGG has a 33% chance of yielding Red but was 3X more likely. Edit: so still 50/50 Given a draw of red, you have exactly the same probability of having been in RRR and RGG. So you were equally likely to have 100% chance or a 0% chance.