The US dropped the atomic bomb in 1945. The USSR replicated their efforts by 1949, and both had ICBMs by the 1960s. The Chinese were late starters figuring the

The US dropped the atomic bomb in 1945. The USSR replicated their efforts by 1949, and both had ICBMs by the 1960s. The Chinese were late starters figuring the tech out by the 64s. It is likely that nano-fabrication is harder than the atomic bomb - but betting on the Chinese not figuring this out just seems overoptomistic. They can bribe people. They can hire people. They can spy. They have some of the brightest scientists and engineers. They have enormous market, military and political incentives. They know what they are targeting and the tolerances they need. There is a good chance they crack this nut. > How did that go for China and Russia during the last... 20 years of them throwing all their money and brain power at it? ASML wasn't causing trouble until the Trump sanctions of 2018, up until then SMIC could just buy machines off them. The situation is different now and the research efforts will have kicked up a notch.