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Good for energy security and economic security, and good for redirecting labour away from Real Estate pivot. Note this is why PRC economy still growing at relat
by maxglute 3y ago
Good for energy security and economic security, and good for redirecting labour away from Real Estate pivot. Note this is why PRC economy still growing at relatively healthy 5% despite RE unwinding that people think would collapse PRC because it's "30%" of GDP.
Reality is RE which is ~15% of GDP, the other ~15% of the 30% is construction +construction supply chains that got redirected towards clean energy civic works, unwinding excess 20-30% of 15% RE reduces net total growth 2-3%. Issue is PRC will need to find another infra driver once distributed clean energy gets exhausted. Question is if that's a few years a 10s of years, whether PRC wants to close current energy per capita gap thats' 1/3 US to 2/3 or 3/3 or even exceed.
I surmise the latter, lots of strategic uses with excess energy (vs vacant floorspace) / however long it takes construction workforce to age out. Other consideration is large infra programs absorbs all the construction overcapacity - they're make job programs. But at same time PRC (relatively cheap) construction workforce depleting due to demographics, so it's prudent to frontload as much construction as possible while it's cheap. Plus every km of HSR and every watt of renewable = less $$$ towards boeing and imported fossil fuels, and eventually fertilizer. This is still good old infra driven development model, but much more useful for national power and (maybe) less prone to market speculation.