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Solar is growing at 33.7% year-on-year and is now at twice the capacity of coal power in China: https://electrek.co/2023/06/26/china-solar-twice-capacity-coal/

Solar is growing at 33.7% year-on-year and is now at twice the capacity of coal power in China: https://electrek.co/2023/06/26/china-solar-twice-capacity-coal/ https://electrek.co/2023/06/26/china-solar-twice-capacity-co... China could cover its entire residential electricity use from solar and wind: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-renewables-2023 https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-renewables-2... China is now expected to add nearly three times the solar capacity in 2023 than it did just two years ago: https://news.yahoo.com/report-reveals-china-reaching-tipping-113000028.html https://news.yahoo.com/report-reveals-china-reaching-tipping... A terawatt of solar module capacity expected within 16 months: From a 405 GW manufacturing capacity in 2022, a projected 114% increase is expected, reaching 866 GW by the end of 2023. Following that, a subsequent 21% surge in 2024 will bring the total to an impressive 1.043 TW globally. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/09/13/a-terawatt-of-solar-module-capacity-expected-within-16-months/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/09/13/a-terawatt-of-solar-m... China is building nuclear reactors faster than any other country: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38485137 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38485137 China overtakes Japan in auto exports with boost from EVs: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/China-overtakes-Japan-in-auto-exports-with-boost-from-EVs https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/China-overtakes...

htrp 3y ago
Politically, it is also reducing dependence on foreign energy imports.
Kuinox 3y ago
Comparing installed capacity between power plants is misleading. Since you can't control solar output, in practice solar will have 3-10x less than the installed capacity.
- Retric 3y ago
  Capacity factor adjusts for that. Some solar farms are over 31% where nuclear caps at ~92% so it’s more like 2.5 - 3.5 rather than 3-10x. Nuclear goes as low as 67%, and some peaking power plants are under 5%. But that’s due to demand rather than the inability to generate power.
  - Kuinox 3y ago
    Nuclear power factor is often lowered in Europe to not waste solar/wind energy. The commenter I was replying to mentioned installed capacity, which is misleading.
    - Retric 3y ago
      Nuclear’s biggest issue is the demand curve. France was getting ~68-72% before wind and solar was a thing because the demand was just that low on nights and weekends even with significant exports. Which is why most countries that under 30% of total electricity, but renewables are likely to push this even lower even if you prioritize nuclear over renewables simply due to differences in cost.
      - shagie 3y ago
        You can see an example of this with Germany and a comparison of 2012 and 2020 - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Renewables_need_flexible_backup_not_baseload.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Renewabl... In 2012, nuclear was a fairly consistent... eyeballing it at 10% of the load. With 2020 there's no nuclear and pumped storage becomes the flexible load while solar has a much larger portion of the total load. If 2020 had the base load generation from nuclear, that sunny Sunday would have caused some problems. And an old article about wind and hydro and managing that energy balance on the Columbia River - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/20/the-high-stakes-math-behind-the-wests-greatest-river/?sh=13563084222b https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/20/the-high-s... > The enormous supply of hydroelectricity during spring runoff can push electricity prices to zero—the BPA gives away electricity to local utilities for free when it’s forced to produce more than it wants to. Since wind producers enjoy production subsidies, they can push rates below zero, effectively paying other utilities to switch off their generators. Last winter, the BPA told wind producers under its balancing authority that it wouldn’t pay negative rates to them during high-water events. (In this example, they could put more water over the spillway to reduce the power generation so that wind wouldn't have to idle... but that would have meant mixing more air in the water and that can suffocate the fish and impact the salmon fishery in Oregon - https://www.oregon.gov/deq/wq/tmdls/pages/tmdls-columbia-river.aspx https://www.oregon.gov/deq/wq/tmdls/pages/tmdls-columbia-riv... and https://apps.ecology.wa.gov/publications/documents/0203004.pdf https://apps.ecology.wa.gov/publications/documents/0203004.p... pages 13-15)
- shagie 3y ago
  The value you're after for this is known as "capacity factor" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor > The net capacity factor is the unitless ratio of actual electrical energy output over a given period of time to the theoretical maximum electrical energy output over that period. For the US for the data from 2018 (what's in Wikipedia) Nuclear 92% Conv. Hydro 42% Wind 37% Solar PV 26% Solar CSP 23% Landfill Gas 73% Other biomass 49% Geothermal 77% Coal 54% Nat Gas CC 57% Nat Gas CT 11% Nat Gas ST 13% Petrol ST 13% Petrol CT 2%
barbazoo 3y ago
> Solar is growing [...] and is now at twice the capacity of coal power in China I didn't get that from the sources I could find [1][2]. Solar made up only a few percent of China's energy mix while coal makes up the vast majority. Can you clarify? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_China [2] https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-chinas-energy-transition/ https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-chinas-ene...
- AlecSchueler 3y ago
  You're looking at usage but GP was taking about capacity.
singularity2001 3y ago
you make it sound like a steady exponential when in the last years solar in china was at times decreasing. it is exponential, just not that steady.

htrp 3y ago

Politically, it is also reducing dependence on foreign energy imports.

Kuinox 3y ago

Comparing installed capacity between power plants is misleading. Since you can't control solar output, in practice solar will have 3-10x less than the installed capacity.

Retric 3y ago
Capacity factor adjusts for that. Some solar farms are over 31% where nuclear caps at ~92% so it’s more like 2.5 - 3.5 rather than 3-10x. Nuclear goes as low as 67%, and some peaking power plants are under 5%. But that’s due to demand rather than the inability to generate power.
- Kuinox 3y ago
  Nuclear power factor is often lowered in Europe to not waste solar/wind energy. The commenter I was replying to mentioned installed capacity, which is misleading.
  - Retric 3y ago
    Nuclear’s biggest issue is the demand curve. France was getting ~68-72% before wind and solar was a thing because the demand was just that low on nights and weekends even with significant exports. Which is why most countries that under 30% of total electricity, but renewables are likely to push this even lower even if you prioritize nuclear over renewables simply due to differences in cost.
    - shagie 3y ago
      You can see an example of this with Germany and a comparison of 2012 and 2020 - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Renewables_need_flexible_backup_not_baseload.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Renewabl... In 2012, nuclear was a fairly consistent... eyeballing it at 10% of the load. With 2020 there's no nuclear and pumped storage becomes the flexible load while solar has a much larger portion of the total load. If 2020 had the base load generation from nuclear, that sunny Sunday would have caused some problems. And an old article about wind and hydro and managing that energy balance on the Columbia River - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/20/the-high-stakes-math-behind-the-wests-greatest-river/?sh=13563084222b https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/20/the-high-s... > The enormous supply of hydroelectricity during spring runoff can push electricity prices to zero—the BPA gives away electricity to local utilities for free when it’s forced to produce more than it wants to. Since wind producers enjoy production subsidies, they can push rates below zero, effectively paying other utilities to switch off their generators. Last winter, the BPA told wind producers under its balancing authority that it wouldn’t pay negative rates to them during high-water events. (In this example, they could put more water over the spillway to reduce the power generation so that wind wouldn't have to idle... but that would have meant mixing more air in the water and that can suffocate the fish and impact the salmon fishery in Oregon - https://www.oregon.gov/deq/wq/tmdls/pages/tmdls-columbia-river.aspx https://www.oregon.gov/deq/wq/tmdls/pages/tmdls-columbia-riv... and https://apps.ecology.wa.gov/publications/documents/0203004.pdf https://apps.ecology.wa.gov/publications/documents/0203004.p... pages 13-15)
shagie 3y ago
The value you're after for this is known as "capacity factor" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor > The net capacity factor is the unitless ratio of actual electrical energy output over a given period of time to the theoretical maximum electrical energy output over that period. For the US for the data from 2018 (what's in Wikipedia) Nuclear 92% Conv. Hydro 42% Wind 37% Solar PV 26% Solar CSP 23% Landfill Gas 73% Other biomass 49% Geothermal 77% Coal 54% Nat Gas CC 57% Nat Gas CT 11% Nat Gas ST 13% Petrol ST 13% Petrol CT 2%

barbazoo 3y ago

> Solar is growing [...] and is now at twice the capacity of coal power in China I didn't get that from the sources I could find [1][2]. Solar made up only a few percent of China's energy mix while coal makes up the vast majority. Can you clarify? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_China [2] https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-chinas-energy-transition/ https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-chinas-ene...

AlecSchueler 3y ago
You're looking at usage but GP was taking about capacity.

singularity2001 3y ago

you make it sound like a steady exponential when in the last years solar in china was at times decreasing. it is exponential, just not that steady.