4 ms·

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma Google is a search engine company and LLMs and

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma Google is a search engine company and LLMs and related technologies are basically an existential risk to their core business -- ads in search. Anything they do to improve AI has a potential to kill their golden goose. Like imagine they actually do produce a breakthrough LLM but don't know how to monetize it yet and traffic to google search craters. If you're the best horse and buggy company in the world, do you go all in on building cars or just keep doing what you're good at and extract profits while you still can? I don't think the right answer is obvious -- just like it's not at all obvious that ICE car companies should pivot to electric, and they've been pretty bad at electric cars for the same reasons.

glial 3y ago
> imagine they actually do produce a breakthrough LLM but don't know how to monetize it yet and traffic to google search craters ChatGPT has replaced maybe 1/2 of my Google searches and the cognitive relief from not having to wade through crap websites and ads is immense. The other 1/2 I'm slowly transitioning to Kagi because search results are more reliable. I'm afraid Google's best days may be behind it.
- make3 3y ago
  the fact that this would reduce half of the world's net traffic if you're representative & as such eliminate the motivation for people to produce the content, makes me think some of the lawsuits will work
  - empath-nirvana 3y ago
    It makes me think the opposite, really. If something is a runaway success that most people like, governments are going to support it, not try to kill it.
  - whimsicalism 3y ago
    if the opposition is fragmented but there are consolidated entities making lots of money, it will go to the consolidated
gcanko 3y ago
They should cannibalize themselves just Apple did with the iPhone effectively killing the iPod. If they don’t do it someone else will. Kodak was in a similar situation with digital photos as they were scared that it would kill off their film business.
- empath-nirvana 3y ago
  I think ipod/iphone isn't the best analogy, because the iphone is sort of just an ipod with more features. What the iPhone _really_ disrupted was the Macbook and personal computers in general, not to mention other mobile phones.
deleted 3y ago
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glial 3y ago

> imagine they actually do produce a breakthrough LLM but don't know how to monetize it yet and traffic to google search craters ChatGPT has replaced maybe 1/2 of my Google searches and the cognitive relief from not having to wade through crap websites and ads is immense. The other 1/2 I'm slowly transitioning to Kagi because search results are more reliable. I'm afraid Google's best days may be behind it.

make3 3y ago
the fact that this would reduce half of the world's net traffic if you're representative & as such eliminate the motivation for people to produce the content, makes me think some of the lawsuits will work
- empath-nirvana 3y ago
  It makes me think the opposite, really. If something is a runaway success that most people like, governments are going to support it, not try to kill it.
- whimsicalism 3y ago
  if the opposition is fragmented but there are consolidated entities making lots of money, it will go to the consolidated

gcanko 3y ago

They should cannibalize themselves just Apple did with the iPhone effectively killing the iPod. If they don’t do it someone else will. Kodak was in a similar situation with digital photos as they were scared that it would kill off their film business.

empath-nirvana 3y ago
I think ipod/iphone isn't the best analogy, because the iphone is sort of just an ipod with more features. What the iPhone _really_ disrupted was the Macbook and personal computers in general, not to mention other mobile phones.

deleted 3y ago

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