4 ms·

It's kind of astounding that Google built many of the tools that a lot of ai are built off of and yet are so miserably behind most of their competitors in this

It's kind of astounding that Google built many of the tools that a lot of ai are built off of and yet are so miserably behind most of their competitors in this space. Bard is abysmal in comparison to just about every other ai out there. How did google fumble the bag so hard here?

xnx 3y ago
Google has been slow to catch on to the latest wave, but they're not obviously that far behind. Possible causes of their current situation include some combination of: * Complacent about their perceived lead * Hesitant to disrupt their advertising money firehose in any way * Additional reputational, legal, regulatory risk vs. upstart competitors
- riwsky 3y ago
  * utterly incapable of the product thinking needed to turn research into something people can actually use
  - cma 3y ago
    Initiall the worry was probably: A) If Google is found liable for copyright on each thing trained, that's more than their net assets by thousands fold at the mandatory minimum rates. B) If OpenAI is found liable, they go bankrupt and creditors don't even get their non-transferable 70% margin (to Microsoft) cloud credits from Microsoft's investment. Once Google released Bard though there is pretty much no excuse not to put out better stuff, they already made a legal determination that it is iron-clad fair use.
- lern_too_spel 3y ago
  Reason #1: Mismanagement.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- crazygringo 3y ago
  > Additional reputational, legal, regulatory risk vs. upstart competitors It is absolutely this. Looking at the speed with which they rolled out Bard, are developing Gemini, building features into various products -- I see zero complacency and zero hesitancy. But they are focused on doing it reliably and safely and not getting sued. These things just take longer.
- xnx 3y ago
  One more bullet I forgot to include: Google likely has to deal with at least 100x the volume that OpenAI does.
empath-nirvana 3y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma Google is a search engine company and LLMs and related technologies are basically an existential risk to their core business -- ads in search. Anything they do to improve AI has a potential to kill their golden goose. Like imagine they actually do produce a breakthrough LLM but don't know how to monetize it yet and traffic to google search craters. If you're the best horse and buggy company in the world, do you go all in on building cars or just keep doing what you're good at and extract profits while you still can? I don't think the right answer is obvious -- just like it's not at all obvious that ICE car companies should pivot to electric, and they've been pretty bad at electric cars for the same reasons.
- glial 3y ago
  > imagine they actually do produce a breakthrough LLM but don't know how to monetize it yet and traffic to google search craters ChatGPT has replaced maybe 1/2 of my Google searches and the cognitive relief from not having to wade through crap websites and ads is immense. The other 1/2 I'm slowly transitioning to Kagi because search results are more reliable. I'm afraid Google's best days may be behind it.
  - make3 3y ago
    the fact that this would reduce half of the world's net traffic if you're representative & as such eliminate the motivation for people to produce the content, makes me think some of the lawsuits will work
    - empath-nirvana 3y ago
      It makes me think the opposite, really. If something is a runaway success that most people like, governments are going to support it, not try to kill it.
    - whimsicalism 3y ago
      if the opposition is fragmented but there are consolidated entities making lots of money, it will go to the consolidated
onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
Counter anecdata - Google has been answering the majority of my questions succinctly and correctly with cards for about 5 years. YMMV.
thinkingtoilet 3y ago
I'm not trying to be mean here, but has Google really done anything best-in-class in the last decade? They coast on search (which objectively is getting worse), ads, and acquisitions. What was the last great product it built?
- whimsicalism 3y ago
  google photos?
  - m4rtink 3y ago
    That service that retroactively reduced the detail of your previously stored photos ?
- nolist_policy 3y ago
  Chromebooks?
  - m4rtink 3y ago
    Locked down laptops that can run only a full screen browser ?
    - nolist_policy 3y ago
      Nope, capable machines that run Web, Android and Linux apps and get 10 years of support/updates. See also my comment here[1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37396727 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37396727
- coolspot 3y ago
  Autonomous cars? Waymo just got greenlight to do driverless taxi service in Los Angeles, in addition to their existing operation in Phoenix and SF.
loudmax 3y ago
This is entirely due to complacent management. In the early 2000's Google's cleverness and engineering competence built a money cannon. The founders recognized the challenges that would be involved in running a huge corporation so they looked for some professional managers to do the job. Eventually the current management settled in, and they've consistently chosen the path of lowest risk and least resistance for their next quarterly financials. As long as there are no external shocks, they could always expect a profitable next quarter. Now that a shock to the system is here, the management lacks the vision or long term planning to have any idea what to do about it. I don't doubt that there's plenty of engineering talent left at Google. Under the right leadership they could be leveraging their unmatched assets to create the most capable AIs that exist. Under the current leadership, that's just not going to happen. Expect nothing more from Google under their current regime.

xnx 3y ago

Google has been slow to catch on to the latest wave, but they're not obviously that far behind. Possible causes of their current situation include some combination of: * Complacent about their perceived lead * Hesitant to disrupt their advertising money firehose in any way * Additional reputational, legal, regulatory risk vs. upstart competitors

riwsky 3y ago
* utterly incapable of the product thinking needed to turn research into something people can actually use
- cma 3y ago
  Initiall the worry was probably: A) If Google is found liable for copyright on each thing trained, that's more than their net assets by thousands fold at the mandatory minimum rates. B) If OpenAI is found liable, they go bankrupt and creditors don't even get their non-transferable 70% margin (to Microsoft) cloud credits from Microsoft's investment. Once Google released Bard though there is pretty much no excuse not to put out better stuff, they already made a legal determination that it is iron-clad fair use.
lern_too_spel 3y ago
Reason #1: Mismanagement.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
crazygringo 3y ago
> Additional reputational, legal, regulatory risk vs. upstart competitors It is absolutely this. Looking at the speed with which they rolled out Bard, are developing Gemini, building features into various products -- I see zero complacency and zero hesitancy. But they are focused on doing it reliably and safely and not getting sued. These things just take longer.
xnx 3y ago
One more bullet I forgot to include: Google likely has to deal with at least 100x the volume that OpenAI does.

empath-nirvana 3y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma Google is a search engine company and LLMs and related technologies are basically an existential risk to their core business -- ads in search. Anything they do to improve AI has a potential to kill their golden goose. Like imagine they actually do produce a breakthrough LLM but don't know how to monetize it yet and traffic to google search craters. If you're the best horse and buggy company in the world, do you go all in on building cars or just keep doing what you're good at and extract profits while you still can? I don't think the right answer is obvious -- just like it's not at all obvious that ICE car companies should pivot to electric, and they've been pretty bad at electric cars for the same reasons.

glial 3y ago
> imagine they actually do produce a breakthrough LLM but don't know how to monetize it yet and traffic to google search craters ChatGPT has replaced maybe 1/2 of my Google searches and the cognitive relief from not having to wade through crap websites and ads is immense. The other 1/2 I'm slowly transitioning to Kagi because search results are more reliable. I'm afraid Google's best days may be behind it.
- make3 3y ago
  the fact that this would reduce half of the world's net traffic if you're representative & as such eliminate the motivation for people to produce the content, makes me think some of the lawsuits will work
  - empath-nirvana 3y ago
    It makes me think the opposite, really. If something is a runaway success that most people like, governments are going to support it, not try to kill it.
  - whimsicalism 3y ago
    if the opposition is fragmented but there are consolidated entities making lots of money, it will go to the consolidated

onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago

Counter anecdata - Google has been answering the majority of my questions succinctly and correctly with cards for about 5 years. YMMV.

thinkingtoilet 3y ago

I'm not trying to be mean here, but has Google really done anything best-in-class in the last decade? They coast on search (which objectively is getting worse), ads, and acquisitions. What was the last great product it built?

whimsicalism 3y ago
google photos?
- m4rtink 3y ago
  That service that retroactively reduced the detail of your previously stored photos ?
nolist_policy 3y ago
Chromebooks?
- m4rtink 3y ago
  Locked down laptops that can run only a full screen browser ?
  - nolist_policy 3y ago
    Nope, capable machines that run Web, Android and Linux apps and get 10 years of support/updates. See also my comment here[1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37396727 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37396727
coolspot 3y ago
Autonomous cars? Waymo just got greenlight to do driverless taxi service in Los Angeles, in addition to their existing operation in Phoenix and SF.

loudmax 3y ago

This is entirely due to complacent management. In the early 2000's Google's cleverness and engineering competence built a money cannon. The founders recognized the challenges that would be involved in running a huge corporation so they looked for some professional managers to do the job. Eventually the current management settled in, and they've consistently chosen the path of lowest risk and least resistance for their next quarterly financials. As long as there are no external shocks, they could always expect a profitable next quarter. Now that a shock to the system is here, the management lacks the vision or long term planning to have any idea what to do about it. I don't doubt that there's plenty of engineering talent left at Google. Under the right leadership they could be leveraging their unmatched assets to create the most capable AIs that exist. Under the current leadership, that's just not going to happen. Expect nothing more from Google under their current regime.