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The EU is simply too scared to actually put it's foot down. If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have

The EU is simply too scared to actually put it's foot down. If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have at least one of their fabs here in the EU. But they won't. In stead they will just handover €30 billion of public money to multinational corporations with market caps larger than the yearly GDP of some EU countries. Edit: For clarity, I'm not suggesting banning the export of ALL machines to outside the EU. I'm just saying they could force companies to also have at least one big fab inside the EU, for geopolitical purposes.

mattclarkdotnet 3y ago
I’m all for a sound industrial policy, but comparing market cap to GDP isn’t helpful. Better to compare corporate revenue which is typically 5% or less of market cap for FAANG.
- SllX 3y ago
  > Better to compare corporate revenue which is typically 5% or less of market cap for FAANG. I wouldn’t even bother with that much. You’re comparing international corporations’ reported revenue with one measure of one country’s general economy. I know a lot of us here are from countries that are either really really big or really really rich or both, but most countries are not really really big or really really rich. The only thing reported revenue, GDP, and market cap have in common is a unit you can denominate them in, but GDP as measured in dollars or euros or whatever still isn’t money in the bank (and neither is market cap).
  - mattclarkdotnet 3y ago
    Reported revenue is pretty reliable. Profits not so much. Revenue for a company and GDP for a country are at least broadly comparable.
    - scott_w 3y ago
      I know it's harder to know for sure, but wouldn't a country's "revenues" (tax, other revenues) vs corporate revenues be better? A country doesn't have instant access to its GDP. Or possibly just expenditure for both? I know borrowing can fill the gap between income/expenditure but it gives and idea of the actual cash that either entity can access.
    - SllX 3y ago
      > Revenue for a company and GDP for a country are at least broadly comparable. It’s really not. One is a figure that a CPA (or whatever your country’s equivalent is) signs off on, reports, and is stored in or flowed through the reporting organization’s cash accounts and the other is a statistic represented by a figure that belongs to no organized entity whatsoever.
ben_w 3y ago
> In stead they will just handover €30 billion of public money to multinational corporations with market caps larger than the yearly GDP of some EU countries. Those GDPs varies from about €18 billion (Malta) to about €4 trillion (Germany).
- dijit 3y ago
  Yes, but we typically think of the EU as advanced economies, and the notion of a company having a market cap larger than some advanced economies definitely hurts when subsidies from that bloc are increasing profits. Which is what the parent is directly addressing. anyway: GDP is more closely related to revenue than it is market cap.
  - surgical_fire 3y ago
    > Yes, but we typically think of the EU as advanced economies The size of an economy is in no small factor of population size. All things considered, Luxembourg is an advanced economy, but it is also a tiny nation. The economic bloc as a whole subsidizing any initiative should not be impacted by the relative small size of some of its members, as the bloc has a budget of its own, relative to the size of all those economies together.
seper8 3y ago
>If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have a fab here in the EU. LOL This would devastate the world economy. Gl getting chips for phones, computers, satellites...
- apexalpha 3y ago
  They wouldn't have to put all their fabs here. But if they want the latest ASML machines they need to have at least one big fab inside the EU, or else they only get one generation back. There's only a handful of companies in the world producing chips at scale, so it wouldn't be too out of the question. You could even invite the Chinese to put their fabs in the EU so that they get a chip sector they control but also make them a bit more dependent on the EU, in stead of the EU on China. But hey, we can also just handover €30 billion of taxpayer money to TSMC and Intel, I guess.
  - seper8 3y ago
    >There's only a handful of companies in the world producing chips at scale, so it wouldn't be too out of the question. Don't think you have any idea how complex it is to both set up the fabs and run them. Are you gonna fly half of Taiwan to run these fabs here? How long do you think this process is going to take?
    - apexalpha 3y ago
      >Don't think you have any idea how complex it is to both set up the fabs and run them. Are you gonna fly half of Taiwan to run these fabs here? How long do you think this process is going to take? I would think this would all happen the same way it would happen if we lured the companies here with €30 billion.
      - seper8 3y ago
        Luring them away is not limiting their ability to sell machines outside of EU, which is what you proposed in your op
bayindirh 3y ago
Do you have any insight into the projects, and how they operate?
davedx 3y ago
The US has already done that. They leaned on the Dutch government to get ASML to reduce exports to China
roenxi 3y ago
ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. China will already have started their attempts. It isn't crazy to expect them to achieve success single handedly. If all of Asia starts mucking in the EU will get crushed. The EU does not have a track record of staying ahead when they tangle with Asians for tech manufacturing supremacy. The EU can't parlay a temporary monopoly held by one manufacturing company into a useful strategic edge.
- romwell 3y ago
  >ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. As someone who's worked in semiconductors... [citation needed] on that claim. >If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. If they could have, they would have. Many have been trying, and still are. >China will already have started their attempts. Not "will have". China has been trying to catch up for many years. > The EU does not have a track record of staying ahead when they tangle with Asians for tech manufacturing supremacy. You're just lumping "Asians" into one group, aren't you? China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea have very different strengths. >The EU can't parlay a temporary monopoly held by one manufacturing company into a useful strategic edge. Oh they absolutely can. So can Taiwan (and does so pretty successfully).
  - flamedoge 3y ago
    > The EU does not have a track record of staying ahead when they tangle with Asians for tech manufacturing supremacy. ASML is literally the one that won vs Japan's Canon/Nikon. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/race-technological-dominance-how-japan-almost-won-euv-amr-elharony-8avjf/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/race-technological-dominance-...
    - throwup238 3y ago
      In a consortium they started in the late 90s with Intel and a couple of other companies to license US Department of Energy EUV research from Lawrence Livermore. There’s a reason the US has control over where ASML hardware can be exported - a lot of the technology was originally developed and funded in the US.
pjc50 3y ago
> they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have a fab here in the EU This kills the crab. Specifically, that would force the development of a (probably taxpayer-funded) US competitor. Even at the cost of delaying the shrink cycle by a few years.
- HPsquared 3y ago
  And delaying the shrink cycle would let China catch up.
- usrusr 3y ago
  Why? Setting up one of the n sites a company operates on EU turf would certainly be easier than avoiding ASML altogether. How would it force setting up a competitor? There's a huge difference between "can't use outside" and "can't use exclusively outside".
  - ekianjo 3y ago
    supply restrains create opportunities. you think China is waiting for the exports restrictions to ease up while doing nothing?
    - scott_w 3y ago
      Is this restraining supply in any real sense? ASML will want to setup new factories, so saying "one of those needs to be in the EU" is more about directing the funding rather than forcing it to not happen. In principle I'm not against ensuring some protection of access to strategic resources for countries. (Note I say "access" and not "exclusive access").
baq 3y ago
> If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have a fab here in the EU. US gets really unhappy and makes Taiwan ban exports of TSMC chips and products containing TSMC chips to EU. Oops. EU would've to onshore the whole supply chain first. Probably a 100B-1T€, 10-30y endavour. Good luck with that.
- lucioperca 3y ago
  Does not work like that, EU has big stake in the EUV-tech. I see no problem in forcing ASML to build a fab in Europe.
  - wil421 3y ago
    Why would ASML build a fab?
    - lucioperca 3y ago
      ups I meant TSMC
  - meepmorp 3y ago
    ASML makes lithography machines, they don't actually fab chips themselves.
    - lucioperca 3y ago
      ups I meant TSMC
dogma1138 3y ago
They cannot, ASML tech is licensed from a US government (DOE) owned company - EUV LLC under full congressional oversight. The EUV light source is made in the US because they had to buy a US company for that too.
- cgeier 3y ago
  How does controlling one component give them control over the whole machine?
  - lupusreal 3y ago
    It happens to be a very important component, that's how.
    - cgeier 3y ago
      With that argument, Germany also has "full control" over those machines, as the optics are a "very important component" manufactured by Zeiss.
      - lupusreal 3y ago
        The German government could probably dictate export terms too then. What's your point, that this is unfair or something?
      - baq 3y ago
        Um yes?
  - dogma1138 3y ago
    Their entire EUV process is based on US research and patents. Their largest R&D center is now in the US.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

mattclarkdotnet 3y ago

I’m all for a sound industrial policy, but comparing market cap to GDP isn’t helpful. Better to compare corporate revenue which is typically 5% or less of market cap for FAANG.

SllX 3y ago
> Better to compare corporate revenue which is typically 5% or less of market cap for FAANG. I wouldn’t even bother with that much. You’re comparing international corporations’ reported revenue with one measure of one country’s general economy. I know a lot of us here are from countries that are either really really big or really really rich or both, but most countries are not really really big or really really rich. The only thing reported revenue, GDP, and market cap have in common is a unit you can denominate them in, but GDP as measured in dollars or euros or whatever still isn’t money in the bank (and neither is market cap).
- mattclarkdotnet 3y ago
  Reported revenue is pretty reliable. Profits not so much. Revenue for a company and GDP for a country are at least broadly comparable.
  - scott_w 3y ago
    I know it's harder to know for sure, but wouldn't a country's "revenues" (tax, other revenues) vs corporate revenues be better? A country doesn't have instant access to its GDP. Or possibly just expenditure for both? I know borrowing can fill the gap between income/expenditure but it gives and idea of the actual cash that either entity can access.
  - SllX 3y ago
    > Revenue for a company and GDP for a country are at least broadly comparable. It’s really not. One is a figure that a CPA (or whatever your country’s equivalent is) signs off on, reports, and is stored in or flowed through the reporting organization’s cash accounts and the other is a statistic represented by a figure that belongs to no organized entity whatsoever.

ben_w 3y ago

> In stead they will just handover €30 billion of public money to multinational corporations with market caps larger than the yearly GDP of some EU countries. Those GDPs varies from about €18 billion (Malta) to about €4 trillion (Germany).

dijit 3y ago
Yes, but we typically think of the EU as advanced economies, and the notion of a company having a market cap larger than some advanced economies definitely hurts when subsidies from that bloc are increasing profits. Which is what the parent is directly addressing. anyway: GDP is more closely related to revenue than it is market cap.
- surgical_fire 3y ago
  > Yes, but we typically think of the EU as advanced economies The size of an economy is in no small factor of population size. All things considered, Luxembourg is an advanced economy, but it is also a tiny nation. The economic bloc as a whole subsidizing any initiative should not be impacted by the relative small size of some of its members, as the bloc has a budget of its own, relative to the size of all those economies together.

seper8 3y ago

>If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have a fab here in the EU. LOL This would devastate the world economy. Gl getting chips for phones, computers, satellites...

apexalpha 3y ago
They wouldn't have to put all their fabs here. But if they want the latest ASML machines they need to have at least one big fab inside the EU, or else they only get one generation back. There's only a handful of companies in the world producing chips at scale, so it wouldn't be too out of the question. You could even invite the Chinese to put their fabs in the EU so that they get a chip sector they control but also make them a bit more dependent on the EU, in stead of the EU on China. But hey, we can also just handover €30 billion of taxpayer money to TSMC and Intel, I guess.
- seper8 3y ago
  >There's only a handful of companies in the world producing chips at scale, so it wouldn't be too out of the question. Don't think you have any idea how complex it is to both set up the fabs and run them. Are you gonna fly half of Taiwan to run these fabs here? How long do you think this process is going to take?
  - apexalpha 3y ago
    >Don't think you have any idea how complex it is to both set up the fabs and run them. Are you gonna fly half of Taiwan to run these fabs here? How long do you think this process is going to take? I would think this would all happen the same way it would happen if we lured the companies here with €30 billion.
    - seper8 3y ago
      Luring them away is not limiting their ability to sell machines outside of EU, which is what you proposed in your op

bayindirh 3y ago

Do you have any insight into the projects, and how they operate?

davedx 3y ago

The US has already done that. They leaned on the Dutch government to get ASML to reduce exports to China

roenxi 3y ago

ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. China will already have started their attempts. It isn't crazy to expect them to achieve success single handedly. If all of Asia starts mucking in the EU will get crushed. The EU does not have a track record of staying ahead when they tangle with Asians for tech manufacturing supremacy. The EU can't parlay a temporary monopoly held by one manufacturing company into a useful strategic edge.

romwell 3y ago
>ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. As someone who's worked in semiconductors... [citation needed] on that claim. >If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. If they could have, they would have. Many have been trying, and still are. >China will already have started their attempts. Not "will have". China has been trying to catch up for many years. > The EU does not have a track record of staying ahead when they tangle with Asians for tech manufacturing supremacy. You're just lumping "Asians" into one group, aren't you? China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea have very different strengths. >The EU can't parlay a temporary monopoly held by one manufacturing company into a useful strategic edge. Oh they absolutely can. So can Taiwan (and does so pretty successfully).
- flamedoge 3y ago
  > The EU does not have a track record of staying ahead when they tangle with Asians for tech manufacturing supremacy. ASML is literally the one that won vs Japan's Canon/Nikon. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/race-technological-dominance-how-japan-almost-won-euv-amr-elharony-8avjf/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/race-technological-dominance-...
  - throwup238 3y ago
    In a consortium they started in the late 90s with Intel and a couple of other companies to license US Department of Energy EUV research from Lawrence Livermore. There’s a reason the US has control over where ASML hardware can be exported - a lot of the technology was originally developed and funded in the US.

pjc50 3y ago

> they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have a fab here in the EU This kills the crab. Specifically, that would force the development of a (probably taxpayer-funded) US competitor. Even at the cost of delaying the shrink cycle by a few years.

HPsquared 3y ago
And delaying the shrink cycle would let China catch up.
usrusr 3y ago
Why? Setting up one of the n sites a company operates on EU turf would certainly be easier than avoiding ASML altogether. How would it force setting up a competitor? There's a huge difference between "can't use outside" and "can't use exclusively outside".
- ekianjo 3y ago
  supply restrains create opportunities. you think China is waiting for the exports restrictions to ease up while doing nothing?
  - scott_w 3y ago
    Is this restraining supply in any real sense? ASML will want to setup new factories, so saying "one of those needs to be in the EU" is more about directing the funding rather than forcing it to not happen. In principle I'm not against ensuring some protection of access to strategic resources for countries. (Note I say "access" and not "exclusive access").

baq 3y ago

> If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have a fab here in the EU. US gets really unhappy and makes Taiwan ban exports of TSMC chips and products containing TSMC chips to EU. Oops. EU would've to onshore the whole supply chain first. Probably a 100B-1T€, 10-30y endavour. Good luck with that.

lucioperca 3y ago
Does not work like that, EU has big stake in the EUV-tech. I see no problem in forcing ASML to build a fab in Europe.
- wil421 3y ago
  Why would ASML build a fab?
  - lucioperca 3y ago
    ups I meant TSMC
- meepmorp 3y ago
  ASML makes lithography machines, they don't actually fab chips themselves.
  - lucioperca 3y ago
    ups I meant TSMC

dogma1138 3y ago

They cannot, ASML tech is licensed from a US government (DOE) owned company - EUV LLC under full congressional oversight. The EUV light source is made in the US because they had to buy a US company for that too.

cgeier 3y ago
How does controlling one component give them control over the whole machine?
- lupusreal 3y ago
  It happens to be a very important component, that's how.
  - cgeier 3y ago
    With that argument, Germany also has "full control" over those machines, as the optics are a "very important component" manufactured by Zeiss.
    - lupusreal 3y ago
      The German government could probably dictate export terms too then. What's your point, that this is unfair or something?
    - baq 3y ago
      Um yes?
- dogma1138 3y ago
  Their entire EUV process is based on US research and patents. Their largest R&D center is now in the US.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]