3 ms·
> But where I'm from one flu season a few years before 2020 was worse and deadlier than any of the years with covid. Looking this up an analysis was published
by anonymouskimmer 3y ago
> But where I'm from one flu season a few years before 2020 was worse and deadlier than any of the years with covid.
Looking this up an analysis was published in February 2021 after the first COVID wave in Sweden: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7930003/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7930003/
Scroll down to Table 1.
The calculated excess mortality rate per hundred thousand people was 50.5 for during this first COVID wave. You have to go back to the 1931 (presumably flu) outbreak to meet and exceed that death rate.
According to the estimate in this next link, the total deaths have since quintupled: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Which would yield an excess mortality worse than anything but the 1918/19 "Spanish flu" pandemic if considered just one outbreak. And on par with the 1889/92 "Russian flu" double wave pandemic. Though when counting the third wave of "Russian flu" it was probably proportionately more lethal than COVID has been (so far with ~5 Swedish waves).
Edit: I found out that the "Russian flu" may have been another coronavirus, a cattle-to-human zoonotic transmission. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43#Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43#Virolog...
: Comparison of HCoV-OC43 with the most closely related strain of Betacoronavirus 1 species, bovine coronavirus BCoV, indicated that they had a most recent common ancestor in the late 19th century, with several methods yielding most probable dates around 1890, leading authors to speculate that an introduction of the former strain to the human population might have caused the 1889–1890 pandemic, which at the time was attributed to influenza.[9] The COVID-19 pandemic brought further evidence of a link, as the 1889–1890 pandemic produced symptoms closer to those associated with COVID-19 (the infection caused by the SARS-CoV-2 betacoronavirus) than to influenza.[10] Brüssow, in August 2021, referred to the evidence that OC43 caused the 1889–1890 outbreak as "indirect, albeit weak" and was "conjectural", yet the 1889 epidemic was the best historical record to make predictions about the current COVID-19 path due to the similar "clinical and epidemiological characteristics".[11]