You seem to have a personal thing about Taleb ("his own damn quote", "this gentleman has made a career from a book about the unpredictability of events"). Taki

You seem to have a personal thing about Taleb ("his own damn quote", "this gentleman has made a career from a book about the unpredictability of events"). Taking the 2nd one first: he's written at least five books, and they're about much more than "unpredictability of events." Have you actually read any of them? As for his own damn quote: a debt crisis is a matter of financial arithmetic, not "a flickering roadside Psychic sign." If indeed the US tacitly admitted that it was never going to pay its debts, then the interest rates would rise. You don't have to be psychic to predict that.