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> Comparing a government's debt to its GDP is like comparing a couple's debt to their employers' total revenues. No. It's more like comparing a merchant's debt
by cbsmith 3y ago
> Comparing a government's debt to its GDP is like comparing a couple's debt to their employers' total revenues.
No. It's more like comparing a merchant's debts to the value of the turnover of their inventory. Sure, their revenue isn't the same as their income, but their income tends to be proportional to their revenue. Similarly, while GDP isn't representative of federal income, because most federal income is derived from taxation of activities that contribute to GDP, they tend to be closely correlated. Per Hauser's Law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hauser%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hauser%27s_law), federal tax revenues have been roughly consistent with 20% of the GDP. Since increasing the share the government extracts from the economy produces net drag on the economy, you don't want to get in to a situation where you have to increase that ratio significantly without a dramatic change in what the federal government puts back in to the economy (which also generally doesn't happen).
So yeah, the experts who look at debt to GDP ratios aren't crazy.