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Isn't he just saying it's inevitable from what's observable? E.g. approaching the point where servicing the debt itself becomes untenable? There's nothing hist

Isn't he just saying it's inevitable from what's observable? E.g. approaching the point where servicing the debt itself becomes untenable? There's nothing historical or predictive involved that I can see. If a group of people are telling you again and again, for decades, that "we're just not ever going to even slow down the pace we're wracking up unrepayable debt, no matter what", isn't it just a case of take them at their word, and extrapolate to the obvious? Like, if a car is heading towards a cliff, with the driver loudly yelling out the window "I'm driving off this cliff!", can't we just take him at his word?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
happytiger 3y ago
The “who correctly called the 2008 financial crisis” in the headline supports nonsensical predictionism, even if the supporting article is entirely different. Also bear in mind there’s a quote from the author for prediction as well though it is more than a tad offensive to modern sensibilities: > “If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them will come out with an exact version of the 'Iliad.” The idea that somehow we should put more credence on a man speaking on the future of the markets and is calling for a “miracle” who is famous for writing a book about unpredictable events is just hilarious, and my point. Who else should we take our advice from about the most predictable events of history? Steven Hawking from the grave? Perhaps a successful advice columnist? Let us not get lost in the obviousness of the prediction or the durability of the prediction of bears when we can enjoy the stupidity of the media presenting an author of a book about unpredictability as some kind of novel expert in the inevitability of the collapse of the western financial system due to unsustainable debts. It’s rich and delicious irony and, especially combined with all of the famous things this man has said that are the opposite of linear predictability being more common than we realize is, as I said earlier, just utterly hilarious.
- AlbertCory 3y ago
  There it is again. You really hate him, don't you? What things that weren't conventional wisdom have you ever done? "predictionism" -- is that a word you just invented? What does it mean?
  - happytiger 3y ago
    Nope. Not at all. I am not contrarian by nature and have nothing against the man. Respectfully, the contrarian you seek is likely in your mirror. Here is the definition: https://www.oed.com/dictionary/predictionism_n?tl=true https://www.oed.com/dictionary/predictionism_n?tl=true
Stealthisbook 3y ago
Servicing the debt is an entirely political act. If the US government wants to pay its bills, it does. The alternative is unlikely, but interesting-what if the US just says no? What enforcement mechanism is there? The biggest trade partner, biggest military, and cultural hegemon says "what are you gonna do about it?" and you do what?
- happytiger 3y ago
  This really is one of the most interesting questions. Obviously, a loss of global prestige and reserve currency abandonment could be the result, but if there’s no other country to step in that has that prestige or offers a replacement… What aee the requirements of debt to suppory a global order? Is it the rise of debt thats the issue or the loss of faith in the global order that that debt represents? People who understand that national debts are a necessary component of reserve currencies get the depth of this question. Great comment.
  - foofie 3y ago
    > Obviously, a loss of global prestige and reserve currency abandonment could be the result, but if there’s no other country to step in that has that prestige or offers a replacement… I don't think the role of the US dolar as a reserve currency is put into question with a hypothetical default. The typical impact of a default is that lenders are stiffed out of the money they lended. Some might go bankrupt as a result, but the only consequence to the US government is a hypothetical inability to get further loans at lower rates. This might be problematic for the US if the US federal government still runs a deficit. Now, there is the question of what would this "inability" mean. When Greece defaulted on its sovereign debt, their credit rating tanked and the global financial market hiked interest rates for Greek debt to the point they reached double digits. That lead the Greek government to beg the EU and IMF for emergency loans, which were accompanied by fiscal policy changes. I doubt the US would follow a similar pattern, mainly because the IMF does not have funds of this hypothetical magnitude.
    - happytiger 3y ago
lucas_membrane 3y ago
Keynes was aware of the argument. It was he who said that, "The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run, we are all dead." > Extrapolate the obvious OK. The list of things that are going to get worse before they get better is going to get longer before it gets shorter. There is a lot that has to change if we want to keep doing what we are doing. We are all in this alone, but we are chained to each other, and we can move only forward. Get used to it.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

happytiger 3y ago

The “who correctly called the 2008 financial crisis” in the headline supports nonsensical predictionism, even if the supporting article is entirely different. Also bear in mind there’s a quote from the author for prediction as well though it is more than a tad offensive to modern sensibilities: > “If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them will come out with an exact version of the 'Iliad.” The idea that somehow we should put more credence on a man speaking on the future of the markets and is calling for a “miracle” who is famous for writing a book about unpredictable events is just hilarious, and my point. Who else should we take our advice from about the most predictable events of history? Steven Hawking from the grave? Perhaps a successful advice columnist? Let us not get lost in the obviousness of the prediction or the durability of the prediction of bears when we can enjoy the stupidity of the media presenting an author of a book about unpredictability as some kind of novel expert in the inevitability of the collapse of the western financial system due to unsustainable debts. It’s rich and delicious irony and, especially combined with all of the famous things this man has said that are the opposite of linear predictability being more common than we realize is, as I said earlier, just utterly hilarious.

AlbertCory 3y ago
There it is again. You really hate him, don't you? What things that weren't conventional wisdom have you ever done? "predictionism" -- is that a word you just invented? What does it mean?
- happytiger 3y ago
  Nope. Not at all. I am not contrarian by nature and have nothing against the man. Respectfully, the contrarian you seek is likely in your mirror. Here is the definition: https://www.oed.com/dictionary/predictionism_n?tl=true https://www.oed.com/dictionary/predictionism_n?tl=true

Stealthisbook 3y ago

Servicing the debt is an entirely political act. If the US government wants to pay its bills, it does. The alternative is unlikely, but interesting-what if the US just says no? What enforcement mechanism is there? The biggest trade partner, biggest military, and cultural hegemon says "what are you gonna do about it?" and you do what?

happytiger 3y ago
This really is one of the most interesting questions. Obviously, a loss of global prestige and reserve currency abandonment could be the result, but if there’s no other country to step in that has that prestige or offers a replacement… What aee the requirements of debt to suppory a global order? Is it the rise of debt thats the issue or the loss of faith in the global order that that debt represents? People who understand that national debts are a necessary component of reserve currencies get the depth of this question. Great comment.
- foofie 3y ago
  > Obviously, a loss of global prestige and reserve currency abandonment could be the result, but if there’s no other country to step in that has that prestige or offers a replacement… I don't think the role of the US dolar as a reserve currency is put into question with a hypothetical default. The typical impact of a default is that lenders are stiffed out of the money they lended. Some might go bankrupt as a result, but the only consequence to the US government is a hypothetical inability to get further loans at lower rates. This might be problematic for the US if the US federal government still runs a deficit. Now, there is the question of what would this "inability" mean. When Greece defaulted on its sovereign debt, their credit rating tanked and the global financial market hiked interest rates for Greek debt to the point they reached double digits. That lead the Greek government to beg the EU and IMF for emergency loans, which were accompanied by fiscal policy changes. I doubt the US would follow a similar pattern, mainly because the IMF does not have funds of this hypothetical magnitude.
  - happytiger 3y ago

lucas_membrane 3y ago

Keynes was aware of the argument. It was he who said that, "The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run, we are all dead." > Extrapolate the obvious OK. The list of things that are going to get worse before they get better is going to get longer before it gets shorter. There is a lot that has to change if we want to keep doing what we are doing. We are all in this alone, but we are chained to each other, and we can move only forward. Get used to it.