4 ms·

The real black swan event was him coming up with the concept of black swan events. Everything else he's done has been increasingly ridiculous.

happytiger 3y ago
“My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously.” “But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right.” “Unlike a well-defined, precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality.” — three quotes by Nassim Taleb
- AlbertCory 3y ago
  I suppose you think the ridiculousness of those is self-evident. Sorry, no, you need to explain.
  - happytiger 3y ago
    Ok. 1) The author is taking his own knowledge too seriously. 2) He is also boldly speaking about a subject not in his wheelhouse but with firm confidence (against his own advice). 3) He is also speaking about a reality in which everything is (ironically) obvious and well discussed as if it were novel. There is a vast ocean of difference between critique of an intellectual and actual criticism I fear may be lost on this forum. We are allowed (encouraged?) by Western intellectual tradition to point out when leading intellectuals gaffaw, and it was considered in most of history not only noble but necessary to do so; a way to keep public discourse honest and prevent banal hypocracy from rising to popularity. I am discouraged by the number of people demanding explanation or making accusations of personal attack (!). Come on now. Lets not be so naive that we cannot criticise stupid statements from public figures. I In the face of the information control systems that permiate the modern landscapes, each of us should probably be going out of our way to support thinking different from our own rather than the opposite: 1984 beckons.
    - AlbertCory 3y ago
      > The author is taking his own knowledge too seriously. I don't think this even makes any sense. If it's your own knowledge, of course you take it seriously. > a subject not in his wheelhouse but with firm confidence (against his own advice) Not in his wheelhouse? He became probably 100x as wealthy as you are (guessing) by having insights about risk that most people don't have. This gave him time to read virtually everything relevant on the subject. Granted, he doesn't have a piece of paper from a university placing it "in his wheelhouse." If that's important to you, you have my sympathy. > to point out when leading intellectuals gaffaw, "gaffaw" is not even a word. If you meant "guffaw" that doesn't make sense. Maybe English isn't your primary language, in which case this forum probably is over your head.
      - happytiger 3y ago
        Albert, you continue to engage in unnecessary personal attacks and straw man arguments. Why make a conversation a personal attack? Please stop. You have no place acting like this on Hacker News. Read the rules. Critique of the arguments vs criticism of the person, please. Also, if you want to have a constructive conversation with someone, insulting them as a lead isn’t… great. I’m sorry for the typo. It happens. Doesn’t make me an idiot. When I find people making typos, I don’t feel a need to demonstrate my questionable bias towards non-native speakers with a superior complex either: how do you think that would genuinely make a non-native speaker feel? Not great. People make typos in casual communication (have you typed on a phone recently, it only works because of spell check!). It doesn’t make them lower on the totem pole or worth “going after” personally. What it does is it makes me someone who made a typo (the horror). I wish you the best, but please stop making it unnecessarily personal. This isn’t Usenet in 1993, and I’m allowed to dislike the arguments of public intellectuals as long as my arguments and criticisms are cogent. I’m not making jokes about the man’s mother, sir. I don’t need to be personally bullied or called ‘a poor’ for not being as successful as the person I’m providing a critique about. That’s an overly personal attack that doesn’t have anything to do with the criticisms I’m levying toward him. I would normally ignore such behavior, but this is a small community and you’re a public person, so I feel compelled to say something. Please don’t do this to others. Be well, HN friend. I’m going to try to engage more in this forum, but obit if you think I belong. Maybe I should practice my English a bit moar.

happytiger 3y ago

“My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously.” “But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right.” “Unlike a well-defined, precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality.” — three quotes by Nassim Taleb

AlbertCory 3y ago
I suppose you think the ridiculousness of those is self-evident. Sorry, no, you need to explain.
- happytiger 3y ago
  Ok. 1) The author is taking his own knowledge too seriously. 2) He is also boldly speaking about a subject not in his wheelhouse but with firm confidence (against his own advice). 3) He is also speaking about a reality in which everything is (ironically) obvious and well discussed as if it were novel. There is a vast ocean of difference between critique of an intellectual and actual criticism I fear may be lost on this forum. We are allowed (encouraged?) by Western intellectual tradition to point out when leading intellectuals gaffaw, and it was considered in most of history not only noble but necessary to do so; a way to keep public discourse honest and prevent banal hypocracy from rising to popularity. I am discouraged by the number of people demanding explanation or making accusations of personal attack (!). Come on now. Lets not be so naive that we cannot criticise stupid statements from public figures. I In the face of the information control systems that permiate the modern landscapes, each of us should probably be going out of our way to support thinking different from our own rather than the opposite: 1984 beckons.
  - AlbertCory 3y ago
    > The author is taking his own knowledge too seriously. I don't think this even makes any sense. If it's your own knowledge, of course you take it seriously. > a subject not in his wheelhouse but with firm confidence (against his own advice) Not in his wheelhouse? He became probably 100x as wealthy as you are (guessing) by having insights about risk that most people don't have. This gave him time to read virtually everything relevant on the subject. Granted, he doesn't have a piece of paper from a university placing it "in his wheelhouse." If that's important to you, you have my sympathy. > to point out when leading intellectuals gaffaw, "gaffaw" is not even a word. If you meant "guffaw" that doesn't make sense. Maybe English isn't your primary language, in which case this forum probably is over your head.
    - happytiger 3y ago
      Albert, you continue to engage in unnecessary personal attacks and straw man arguments. Why make a conversation a personal attack? Please stop. You have no place acting like this on Hacker News. Read the rules. Critique of the arguments vs criticism of the person, please. Also, if you want to have a constructive conversation with someone, insulting them as a lead isn’t… great. I’m sorry for the typo. It happens. Doesn’t make me an idiot. When I find people making typos, I don’t feel a need to demonstrate my questionable bias towards non-native speakers with a superior complex either: how do you think that would genuinely make a non-native speaker feel? Not great. People make typos in casual communication (have you typed on a phone recently, it only works because of spell check!). It doesn’t make them lower on the totem pole or worth “going after” personally. What it does is it makes me someone who made a typo (the horror). I wish you the best, but please stop making it unnecessarily personal. This isn’t Usenet in 1993, and I’m allowed to dislike the arguments of public intellectuals as long as my arguments and criticisms are cogent. I’m not making jokes about the man’s mother, sir. I don’t need to be personally bullied or called ‘a poor’ for not being as successful as the person I’m providing a critique about. That’s an overly personal attack that doesn’t have anything to do with the criticisms I’m levying toward him. I would normally ignore such behavior, but this is a small community and you’re a public person, so I feel compelled to say something. Please don’t do this to others. Be well, HN friend. I’m going to try to engage more in this forum, but obit if you think I belong. Maybe I should practice my English a bit moar.