Well ironically this study shows that GPT-4 isn't actually very good: >However, the obtained effect sizes were not large enough to be statistically significant

Well ironically this study shows that GPT-4 isn't actually very good: >However, the obtained effect sizes were not large enough to be statistically significant, and our study highlighted the need for more research around what performance thresholds indicate a meaningful increase in risk. A "mild uplift" in capabilities that isn't statistically significant doesn't really sound like overestimation.