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OpenAI seems to be transitioning from an AI lab to an AI fearmongering regulatory mouthpiece. As someone who lived through the days when encryption technology

OpenAI seems to be transitioning from an AI lab to an AI fearmongering regulatory mouthpiece. As someone who lived through the days when encryption technology was highly regulated, I am seeing parallels. The Open Source cows have left the Proprietary barn. Regulation might slow things. It might even create a new generation of script kiddies and hackers. But you aren't getting the cows back in the barn.

rising-sky 3y ago
Agreed, seems they are sowing FUD by playing on a global disaster event still fresh in short term memory to advance their goal of regulatory capture... the competition isn't letting up so they'd very much like regulation to hamper things
pr337h4m 3y ago
"However, the obtained effect sizes were not large enough to be statistically significant, and our study highlighted the need for more research around what performance thresholds indicate a meaningful increase in risk." "We also discuss the limitations of statistical significance as an effective method of measuring model risk" Seriously?
- sjwhevvvvvsj 3y ago
  It’s not a null result if the PR person writes the paper. It’s the fundamental mathematical nature of statistics that’s wrong!
- esafak 3y ago
  I understand the second sentence but the first is flawed. Effects can be statistically significant at any size.
  - thaumasiotes 3y ago
    They can, but at any given sample size, there is a minimum effect size to achieve statistical significance. Larger effect sizes are always more significant, and smaller effect sizes are always less significant. So if you assume they wrote the paper after doing their work, and not before, the sentence makes perfect sense: the work is already done, there is an effect size cutoff for statistical significance, and they didn't reach it. One of Andrew Gelman's frequently-mentioned points is that a statistical significance filter in publishing means that published effect sizes are almost always wildly overestimated, precisely due to this effect.
thaumasiotes 3y ago
> OpenAI seems to be transitioning from an AI lab to an AI fearmongering regulatory mouthpiece. The fearmongering is its original, primary purpose. The lab work was always secondary to that.

rising-sky 3y ago

Agreed, seems they are sowing FUD by playing on a global disaster event still fresh in short term memory to advance their goal of regulatory capture... the competition isn't letting up so they'd very much like regulation to hamper things

pr337h4m 3y ago

"However, the obtained effect sizes were not large enough to be statistically significant, and our study highlighted the need for more research around what performance thresholds indicate a meaningful increase in risk." "We also discuss the limitations of statistical significance as an effective method of measuring model risk" Seriously?

sjwhevvvvvsj 3y ago
It’s not a null result if the PR person writes the paper. It’s the fundamental mathematical nature of statistics that’s wrong!
esafak 3y ago
I understand the second sentence but the first is flawed. Effects can be statistically significant at any size.
- thaumasiotes 3y ago
  They can, but at any given sample size, there is a minimum effect size to achieve statistical significance. Larger effect sizes are always more significant, and smaller effect sizes are always less significant. So if you assume they wrote the paper after doing their work, and not before, the sentence makes perfect sense: the work is already done, there is an effect size cutoff for statistical significance, and they didn't reach it. One of Andrew Gelman's frequently-mentioned points is that a statistical significance filter in publishing means that published effect sizes are almost always wildly overestimated, precisely due to this effect.

thaumasiotes 3y ago

> OpenAI seems to be transitioning from an AI lab to an AI fearmongering regulatory mouthpiece. The fearmongering is its original, primary purpose. The lab work was always secondary to that.