> However the fact that our first n=1 sample happened to be red (and not something else) gives a small (and varying) amount of confidence towards red-heavier mi

> However the fact that our first n=1 sample happened to be red (and not something else) gives a small (and varying) amount of confidence towards red-heavier mixes rather than the red-scarce ones. I wouldn't characterize this as a small amount of confidence, as conditional distribution of the mix-rate after the first sample drastically differs from the prior. Originally each mix-rate has 1/101 probablity. After the sample having a mix with n reds in it has the probablity 2n/(100101).