>Without loss of generality, take the case of just one red ball, rest are green. If you pick the one red ball on your first draw the chances are now 100% that t

>Without loss of generality, take the case of just one red ball, rest are green. If you pick the one red ball on your first draw the chances are now 100% that the next ball is green (since there aren't any red ones left) whereas before you had picked the red one you had just a 99% chance of picking a green one. Your reasoning can conclude that picking a green ball next time is more likely for any specific bag contents. But you can't then conclude that picking a green ball the next time is more likely, period. Picking red the first time gives you information that changes the probability distribution of likely bag contents.