Forgive my frequentist bent, but: When in doubt, simulate (with code). Do this N times for a large N, and take the ratio to get a probability estimate. So the

Forgive my frequentist bent, but: When in doubt, simulate (with code). Do this N times for a large N, and take the ratio to get a probability estimate. So the question is: How will you code it? You'll find half the people code it one way (to get one answer), and the other half will code it differently to get a different answer. That's because it is ill posed. As an example, I would code it as: Let n be a random number from 1 to 100 (cannot be 0!) We throw away one red ball as we know we picked one. Construct a list of n-1 red balls, and 100 - n green balls. Pick a ball at random. Success if it is red. Repeat this N times where N is large. Take the ratio of successes with N. When I run it, I get 50% How would you simulate it differently? The problems with the code in the submission: If n==0, he continues, but still counts it as a trial (he still divides by num_trials). He should deduct the number of trials every time n==0.