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> Not noticing a hugely growing segment that was bringing insane reams of cash to Apple, and Qualcomm, Samsung and others involved is not something I could call

> Not noticing a hugely growing segment that was bringing insane reams of cash to Apple, and Qualcomm, Samsung and others involved is not something I could call astute. And it's not like they didn't notice either. Apple literally asked intel to supply the chips for the first iPhone, but the intel CEO at the time "didn't see it". https://www.theverge.com/2013/5/16/4337954/intel-could-have-been-inside-the-original-iphone-says-outgoing-ceo https://www.theverge.com/2013/5/16/4337954/intel-could-have-...

eslaught 3y ago
I agree mobile was a miss but the linked article actually quotes Intel's former COE making a pretty good argument why they missed: > "The thing you have to remember is that this was before the iPhone was introduced and no one knew what the iPhone would do... At the end of the day, there was a chip that they were interested in that they wanted to pay a certain price for and not a nickel more and that price was below our forecasted cost. I couldn't see it. It wasn't one of these things you can make up on volume. And in hindsight, the forecasted cost was wrong and the volume was 100x what anyone thought." In that circumstance, I think most people would have made the same decision.
- epistasis 3y ago
  Kind of speaks to how Intel was not competitive in the space at all. If it was truly that the marginal cost per part was higher than the requested price, either Apple was asking for the impossible and settled for a worse deal with an ARM chip, or Intel did not have similar capabilities.
- isignal 3y ago
  Intel also had a later chance when Apple tried to get off the Qualcomm percent per handset model. This was far after the original iPhone. Apple also got sued for allegedly sharing proprietary Qualcomm trade secrets with Intel. And Intel still couldn’t pull it off despite all these tailwinds.
- GeekyBear 3y ago
  "We couldn't figure out how much a chip design would cost to make" is pretty damning, in my book.
- katbyte 3y ago
  I’m not so sure, he made a choice purely on “will it make money now” not “well let’s take a chance and see if this pays of big and if not we’ll loose a little money” It’s not like they couldn’t afford it and taking chances is important
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - eslaught 3y ago
    Ok, but you have to view this through the lens of what was on the market at the time and what kind of expectations Intel likely would have had. I can't imagine that Apple told Intel what they were planning. Therefore, it would have been reasonable to look around at the state of what existed at the time (basically, iPods, flip phones, and the various struggling efforts that were trying to become smartphones at the time) and conclude that none of that was going to amount to anything big. I'm pretty sure most people here panned the iPhone after it came out, so it's not as if anyone would have predicted it prior to even being told it existed.
- cpursley 3y ago
  > In that circumstance, I think most people would have made the same decision. In that circumstance, I think most MBAs would have made the same decision. Fixed that for you
- xenadu02 3y ago
  And that statement is hilarious in light of the many failed efforts (eg subsidies for Netbooks and their embedded x86 chip) where they lit billions on fire attempting to sway the market. FWIW I don't buy his explanation anyway. Intel at the time had zero desire to be a fab. Their heart was not in it. They wanted to own all the IP for fat margins. They have yet to prove anything about that has changed despite the noise they repeatedly make about taking on fab customers.
distances 3y ago
That was very luck for Apple though. Nokia made deals with Intel to provide the CPU for upcoming phone models, and had to scramble to redesign them when it became clear Intel was unable to deliver.
- finaard 3y ago
  Not quite true - the intel projects were at a pretty early stage when Elop took over, and the whole Microsoft thing happened - and the projects got canned as part of the cleanup and moving to Windows for the phones. The CPUs were indeed horrible, and would've caused a lot of pain if the projects had actually continued. (source: I was working on the software side for the early Nokia intel prototypes)
  - distances 3y ago
    Thanks for the insights. N9 was originally rumored to use Intel, and it was speculated so [1] still half a year before the release. Was that then also switched by Elop as part of the whole lineup change, or were these rumors unfounded in the first place? [1] https://www.gottabemobile.com/meego-powered-nokia-n9-to-launch-with-intel-atom-cpu-at-mwc/ https://www.gottabemobile.com/meego-powered-nokia-n9-to-laun...
    - finaard 3y ago
      Pretty much all rumors at that time were very entertainingly wrong. I think at the time that article got published we didn't even have the intel devboards distributed (that is a screen and macroboards, way before it starts looking like a phone). We did have some intel handsets from a 3rd party for meego work, but that was pretty much just proof of concept - nobody ever really bothered looking into trying to get the modem working, for example. What became the N9 was all the time planned as an arm based device - exact name and specs changed a few times, but it still pretty much was developed as a maemo device, just using the meego name for branding, plus having some of the APIs (mainly, qt mobility and QML) compatible with what was scheduled to become meego. The QML stuff was a late addition there - originally it was supposed to launch with MTF, and the device was a wild mix of both when it launched, with QML having noticeable issues in many areas. Development on what was supposed to be proper meego (the cooperation with intel) happened with only a very small team (which I was part of) at that time, and was starting to slowly ramp up - but massive developer effort from Nokia to actually make a "true" meego phone would've started somewhere mid-11.

eslaught 3y ago

I agree mobile was a miss but the linked article actually quotes Intel's former COE making a pretty good argument why they missed: > "The thing you have to remember is that this was before the iPhone was introduced and no one knew what the iPhone would do... At the end of the day, there was a chip that they were interested in that they wanted to pay a certain price for and not a nickel more and that price was below our forecasted cost. I couldn't see it. It wasn't one of these things you can make up on volume. And in hindsight, the forecasted cost was wrong and the volume was 100x what anyone thought." In that circumstance, I think most people would have made the same decision.

epistasis 3y ago
Kind of speaks to how Intel was not competitive in the space at all. If it was truly that the marginal cost per part was higher than the requested price, either Apple was asking for the impossible and settled for a worse deal with an ARM chip, or Intel did not have similar capabilities.
isignal 3y ago
Intel also had a later chance when Apple tried to get off the Qualcomm percent per handset model. This was far after the original iPhone. Apple also got sued for allegedly sharing proprietary Qualcomm trade secrets with Intel. And Intel still couldn’t pull it off despite all these tailwinds.
GeekyBear 3y ago
"We couldn't figure out how much a chip design would cost to make" is pretty damning, in my book.
katbyte 3y ago
I’m not so sure, he made a choice purely on “will it make money now” not “well let’s take a chance and see if this pays of big and if not we’ll loose a little money” It’s not like they couldn’t afford it and taking chances is important
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- eslaught 3y ago
  Ok, but you have to view this through the lens of what was on the market at the time and what kind of expectations Intel likely would have had. I can't imagine that Apple told Intel what they were planning. Therefore, it would have been reasonable to look around at the state of what existed at the time (basically, iPods, flip phones, and the various struggling efforts that were trying to become smartphones at the time) and conclude that none of that was going to amount to anything big. I'm pretty sure most people here panned the iPhone after it came out, so it's not as if anyone would have predicted it prior to even being told it existed.
cpursley 3y ago
> In that circumstance, I think most people would have made the same decision. In that circumstance, I think most MBAs would have made the same decision. Fixed that for you
xenadu02 3y ago
And that statement is hilarious in light of the many failed efforts (eg subsidies for Netbooks and their embedded x86 chip) where they lit billions on fire attempting to sway the market. FWIW I don't buy his explanation anyway. Intel at the time had zero desire to be a fab. Their heart was not in it. They wanted to own all the IP for fat margins. They have yet to prove anything about that has changed despite the noise they repeatedly make about taking on fab customers.

distances 3y ago

That was very luck for Apple though. Nokia made deals with Intel to provide the CPU for upcoming phone models, and had to scramble to redesign them when it became clear Intel was unable to deliver.

finaard 3y ago
Not quite true - the intel projects were at a pretty early stage when Elop took over, and the whole Microsoft thing happened - and the projects got canned as part of the cleanup and moving to Windows for the phones. The CPUs were indeed horrible, and would've caused a lot of pain if the projects had actually continued. (source: I was working on the software side for the early Nokia intel prototypes)
- distances 3y ago
  Thanks for the insights. N9 was originally rumored to use Intel, and it was speculated so [1] still half a year before the release. Was that then also switched by Elop as part of the whole lineup change, or were these rumors unfounded in the first place? [1] https://www.gottabemobile.com/meego-powered-nokia-n9-to-launch-with-intel-atom-cpu-at-mwc/ https://www.gottabemobile.com/meego-powered-nokia-n9-to-laun...
  - finaard 3y ago
    Pretty much all rumors at that time were very entertainingly wrong. I think at the time that article got published we didn't even have the intel devboards distributed (that is a screen and macroboards, way before it starts looking like a phone). We did have some intel handsets from a 3rd party for meego work, but that was pretty much just proof of concept - nobody ever really bothered looking into trying to get the modem working, for example. What became the N9 was all the time planned as an arm based device - exact name and specs changed a few times, but it still pretty much was developed as a maemo device, just using the meego name for branding, plus having some of the APIs (mainly, qt mobility and QML) compatible with what was scheduled to become meego. The QML stuff was a late addition there - originally it was supposed to launch with MTF, and the device was a wild mix of both when it launched, with QML having noticeable issues in many areas. Development on what was supposed to be proper meego (the cooperation with intel) happened with only a very small team (which I was part of) at that time, and was starting to slowly ramp up - but massive developer effort from Nokia to actually make a "true" meego phone would've started somewhere mid-11.