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That's definitely fair, and I assuming in a classroom setting you'd be very consistent and precise about what that means. But this is a twitter poll, and I doub
by tqi 3y ago
That's definitely fair, and I assuming in a classroom setting you'd be very consistent and precise about what that means. But this is a twitter poll, and I doubt people are that consistent. Ultimately I'm just pushing back on the conclusion that this is because "Bayesian thinking is really foreign to people."
I think if the question had instead been "would you bet on the urn having started out with more red balls, green balls, or equal number of balls" the distribution would have been very different.
- travisjungroth 3y agoThat question is quite a bit of handholding. A closer analogue would be “would you bet the next ball is red / green / they’re equally likely?”. Personally I’d word it as “The next ball is… more likely to be red than green / more likely to be green than red / equally likely to be red or green / I don’t know.”
- chrismcb 3y agoBut isn't that exactly how it is worded? Just showing it a bit?
- travisjungroth 3y agoNot quite. People are arguing that “more likely to be red” can be interpreted as “more likely to be red than it was last time”. I guess you could do that with this wording, but that seems like quite a stretch.