3 ms·
I think the wording is also biasing the outcome. The next ball is more likely to be green than the previous ball, and a lot of people will regard that posterior
by anigbrowl 3y ago
I think the wording is also biasing the outcome. The next ball is more likely to be green than the previous ball, and a lot of people will regard that posterior probability statement as implicit. If the question had been phrased differently eg, 'what is the most likely color for the next ball selected' I suspect more people would have voted for equal likelihood.
- eigenvalue 3y agoYes, I think you're right about that. Just look at all the disagreement about it right here in this discussion!
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoAnd if you change the distribution, that answer is close to correct.
- chrismcb 3y agoWhat does the previous ball have to do with it? We KNOW the previous ball is red. Then it asks "more likely to be red" It seems pretty obvious that it is saying draw the next ball, which is more likely? Red, green, equal. Why would you think it is comparing the second pick probability to the first pick probability?
- mewpmewp2 3y agoAgreed. The first likelihood of green is 50 percent, and of the first is red then the next ball likelihood of being green is smaller than 50 percent, so the above statement makes no sense.
- bo1024 3y ago"You shoot a basketball for the first time -- you miss. The second time, you are more likely to score." A common phrasing. It doesn't mean that scoring is more likely than missing, it means the second time is more likely than the first was.
- anigbrowl 3y agoCalm down. I don't think that, I'm saying a lot of people will read it that way because the previous draw is the only existing point of comparison. Think about how people use language casually vs the very specific approach of a math textbook.