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> In a few years, after a few product generations, we will all look back at this first Vision device and laugh. We’ll laugh at the external battery, we will lau
by gnicholas 3y ago
> In a few years, after a few product generations, we will all look back at this first Vision device and laugh. We’ll laugh at the external battery, we will laugh at the size and weight of the device, and eventually we will laugh at its price.
There may be a few people laughing all the way to the bank: those who bought first-gen units and left them shrink-wrapped in order to grab top dollar at auction in 20 years. I'd guess they might go for $100k at that time. The question is, what would $3,500 of AAPL be worth 20 years from now?
- judge2020 3y ago> The question is, what would $3,500 of AAPL be worth 20 years from now? It's hard to truly believe it'll continue to go up. It's already worth 3 trillion dollars, with $400B revenue in 2022 or nearly 5% of the global GDP - how much global value can it actually provide compared to literally everything else? 5%? 10%?
- gnicholas 3y agoRumors of a car are still in the offing. But you're right; even if Apple Vision turns out to be a wild success, it will largely cannibalize computers/tablets/phones, not supplement them, in the long run.
- simonebrunozzi 3y agoUS' GDP is ~$25T, world's GDP is ~$100T [0], so $400B in revenues are respectively 1.6% of US' GDP and 0.4% of the world's. Nothing near the 5% you're referring to. [0]: https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/ https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/
- judge2020 3y agoI meant to denote .5%.
- yencabulator 3y agoUnlike today's nostalgic retrocomputing, I fully expect any recent Apple product to be impossible to use in 20 years. Can't contact cloud server to verify application. Can't download first-boot software upgrade. Can't register your account. So your future market is purely people who will continue keeping the thing in the box.